Keep Your Fingers Crossed

So how bad will Y2K be? And how safe is India? It's just over two months to year 2000. Will planes crash, their systems out of control? Will missiles launch by themselves? Will the financial system disintegrate? Or will all the doomsayers be proved wrong and life will go on as usual?

Well, computer companies are taking no chances. For instance, Hewlett-Packard has put in place a nationwide crisis management team to come to people's aid in case of any eventuality. No team member can go on leave after October. Some have even had to postpone their weddings. The government too has got into the act. Late last year, it set up the Y2K Action Force. Recently, it came out with an advertising campaign using celebrity endorsements to make people aware of the Y2K problem.

But what's giving the computer industry grey hairs is a proposed government ordinance which, among other things, puts the onus of Y2K compliance on the suppliers of infotech products rather than users. This, the industry feels, is unfair. Says a top official from a computer manufacturing company: "The government should make the companies understand that Y2K compliance is a business continuation issue rather than something concerning just the IT sector." If the government does issue this ordinance, computer makers will have to repair the damage free of cost, possibly even pay heavy compensation. At which point, these companies will perhaps point the finger at their suppliers and it could all become one hell of a mess.

How serious is the situation? The answer depends on whom you talk to. Flip through a recent survey by theUS-based Gartner Group on global Y2K readiness, and you'll discover India is not too ready for the millennium bug.The good news is that India is not in the same league as Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and Russia, which, Gartner has judged, has a possible Y2K failure rate of 66 per cent or more. India, along with 26 others including Japan, Germany, Malaysia and Poland, is in what Gartner terms Group 3, with a risk factor of 50 per cent.

Many believe that Gartner is being too pessimistic about India. Says Dewang Mehta, president, National Association of Software and Service Companies (Nasscom): "The US report is based on March '99 data and a lot has happened since then. We should be in the first category as India is over 92 per cent compliant."

Mehta feels that the fact that most of India's computers are not networked has worked to its advantage. This could be true, given that PC penetration in India is just under three per 1,000 people - negligible compared to the US where there is a PC for every two persons, or even the world average of 40 per 1,000 people.

For all the hype, there are just 3.2 million PCs in India, with only 1,500-2,000 mainframes. And less than half the PCs are networked. Says Mehta: "The crucial sectors are aviation, power, banking and insurance, which survive on timed data and where computer presence is high. But most of these are Y2K compliant." Of the 65,000 bank branches in India, only 6,700 are computerised and within these, Y2K compliance is over 95 per cent. The rest should fall in line by the end of this month.

India's power sector is no different. Of the 315 power generating stations, 220 are analog. Of the 95 which are digital, 50 are on-stream with only 20 Y2K compliant. But the other 45 are at various stages of compliance. To put it differently, only 1,300 MW out of the total 92,000 MW will be Y2K-unsafe by November-end.

In the aviation sector where the fear of non-compliance is maximum, much has actually happened. It's claimed that since September 30, all radar systems are being tested for any eventuality. Says an aviation ministry official: "Everything is moving on schedule and we are safe." Railway and airline reservation systems in the country are already compliant.

Confirms Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who heads the Action Force on Y2K: "The aviation sector has done more work on Y2K than anyone else. The Airports Authority equipment, air traffic control and navigation equipment have been thoroughly checked, tested and even certified clear by global vendors. Flight flexibility in air routes and timings has been suspended. In almost all places, non-digital and analog communication equipment has been installed for emergencies."

Ahluwalia insists the government is on track. His team has identified 11 sectors which were at risk: banking and finance, insurance, atomic energy, defence, power, ports, railways, telecom, civil aviation, petroleum and space. It asked all government departments to set up a similar action force and make a contingency report on the issue. Ahluwalia is monitoring the entire process and the panel's report will soon be with the government.

But for every Mehta or Montek, there is a sceptic. Says Sharad Talwar, general manager, marketing, HCL Infosystems: "Over 50 per cent of the installed base of computers in India is not compliant. On January 1, 2000, many ancient computers might just not boot."

Says Vinnie Mehta, executive director, Manufacturers' Association for Information Technology: "All we can do now is have a contingency plan ready for the unexpected. The government's advertising campaign's a bit late in the day."

In the last budget, finance minister Yashwant Sinha announced a package for Y2K compliance, allowing all expenses on this account to be treated as revenue expenditure and offered 100 per cent depreciation. However, this was not available on the replacement of old computers with new, Y2K- compliant machines but only on upgradation of the old ones which did not always guarantee compliance.

Companies haven't left things to chance. The Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) survey conducted in June '98 on compliance showed that other than the big boys, no one bothered. But a second survey in August '99 showed Indian industry was over 90 per cent compliant.

CII has asked the Gartner Group, Credit Suisse and Jardine Fleming for a review of India's Y2K readiness. Credit Suisse has agreed and others may follow suit. In the next four weeks, CII will conduct an audit of the level of Y2K compliance among its members and it expects a 100 per cent result.

Then there those who believe that compliance or no compliance, the heavens aren't going to fall on India if the bug bites. Says Stacy Plemmons, vice-president, enterprise computing, Hewlett-Packard India: "India knows emergency management better than any other as it is used to recurring systems failure. It has a manual option for almost everything. If India were like Japan, it was doomed as the Japanese have forgotten how manual work is done."

The problem could actually lie in embedded systems which have become part of everyday life, even in India. Most of our common gadgets use embedded chips, be it mobile phones, elevators, or even automated, centralised car locks. And while most of these cannot be replaced, in some cases the companies have either shut shop or stopped production years ago.

Says Plemmons: "They're everywhere - in hydroelectric or thermal plants and in our homes. If the algorithm controlling them is date-dependent, we have a genuine problem on our hands. These gadgets will just stop in Y2K." Worse, says Nasscom's Mehta: "There is no available data on how many embedded chips are in use in the country. Therefore, what does one target and correct? It is a serious problem. The municipality, for example, has almost no record of how many elevators run in the capital or how many are automatic, although it licenses them."

However, where the problem is uncertain, a lot of people are not really ready to comply. Even Ahluwalia agrees that despite the advertising campaigns and deadlines, there will be non-compliant companies and systems in the country even in January 2000. Says he: "I can't say everything is perfect, but we have done our bit and built up quite a momentum." Perhaps some things are best left to chance and providence.