The Union Budget 2010 presented by the UPA Government will neither stimulate growth nor bring down inflation. The Budget is premised upon a flawed strategy to meet the budget deficit by increasing indirect taxes across the board, especially on diesel and petrol, which will hit the common people, primarily the poorer sections. In contrast, direct taxes on the affluent sections have been reduced. This anti-people strategy will further fuel inflation in the backdrop of an already high food inflation rate of 20%.
As per the Finance Minister’s own estimates, there will be a revenue loss of Rs. 26000 crore in 2010-11 due to the direct tax concessions doled out to high-income earners as well as real estate developers, hoteliers and other commercial establishments. This comes in the backdrop of nearly Rs. 80000 crore tax concessions to corporates in 2009-10. In contrast, the Finance Minister has proposed to raise an additional Rs. 60000 crore in indirect taxes over the last year. The most objectionable aspect of the increase in indirect taxes has come in the form of a 5% increase in customs duty on crude petroleum along with a Re. 1 per litre increase in central excise duty on petrol and diesel. Raising the prices of diesel and petrol will further fuel all round inflation in the economy.
On the expenditure side, while there is a 15% increase in Central Plan expenditure, the increase in Central Assistance for the States is merely 8%, which implies a squeeze in real terms (the nominal GDP growth rate is 12.2%). The Budget also incorporates the recommendations of the 13th Finance Commission for only 32% share of the States in sharable central taxes against the demand to allocate 50%. On elementary education the paltry increase of Rs. 5000 crore falls far short of the requirement of universalizing the Right to Education. The Central Plan outlays for agriculture, irrigation and rural development shows stagnation in real terms, reflecting the Government’s waning commitment towards the rural population.