Comparative Analysis: How 2024 Lok Sabha Election Voter Turnout So Far Has Declined from 2019

Low voter turnout has emerged as a significant talking point as polling after two phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections records a drop from its 2019 numbers.

According to the latest data from the ECI Voter Turnout app, the first phase recorded an approximate average voter turnout of 68.31 percent across 102 constituencies, while the second phase recorded 70.02 percent across 88 constituencies

Despite many venturing out to vote amid challenges such as violence in the northeast and extreme weather conditions in various states, voter turnout remained low in most constituencies, even in those with the highest turnout, as compared to 2019 figures.

With the conclusion of the initial phases of elections in the world’s largest democracy, Outlook analyses voter trends, mapping how voter activity has changed since the previous 2019 polls.

Phase 1

In 2019, the phase one of the general elections which saw voting in 91 constituencies the average turnout was recorded at 69.43 per cent. However, figures from first phase’s polling indicate a slight decrease to 68.31 per cent.

Several constituencies have shown a decline in voter turnout compared to their 2019 figures. Even the constituencies with the highest voting turnout have suffered a setback compared to their previous performance.

On April 19, the Lakshadweep constituency recorded the highest percentage of votes cast at 83.88 per cent. While this is the highest among the 102 constituencies, it has decreased from its 2019 turnout of 85.21 per cent.

Similarly, West Bengal’s Jalpaiguri went from 86.51 to 83.66 per cent and Cooch Behar from 84.08 to 82.17 per cent. In the northeastern region, Tripura’s turnout also dropped from 81.93 to 81.62 and Sikkim from 81.41 to 80.03.

Arunachal Pradesh East saw a dramatic decrease from 87.03 to 76.37 per cent which could be attributed to violence reported in certain parts of Arunachal Pradesh. Similarly, in Manipur, both constituencies witnessed a decline, with the average voter turnout decreasing from 82.69 per cent to 70.63 per cent. 

Mizoram's voter turnout of 56.60 per cent was the lowest among northeastern states, marking a decline from its 2019 turnout of 63.14 per cent.

While in Nagaland, over four lakh voters boycotted the elections due to the Eastern Nagaland People's Organisation (ENPO)’s long-standing demand for a separate zone with greater autonomy. This led to a significant drop in voter turnout from 83 per cent in 2019 to 56.91 per cent this time.

Tamil Nadu and Uttarakahnd, states with all seats going to polls in the first phase, also witnessed a decline in voter percentage as compared to their 2019 performance. Tamil Nadu with its 39 seats, went from an average turnout of 72.44 to 69.76 per cent. Uttarakhand went from 59.21 to 54.81 per cent. 

All four constituencies of Bihar, all six of Madhya Pradesh, all eight of Uttar Pradesh, all 12 of Rajasthan, all three of West Bengal, all five of Uttarakhand  and four out of five of Maharashtra have witnessed a downward trend in voter turnout as compared to their 2019 performance.

A northeastern state which actually improved its 2019 performance was Meghalaya with turnout rising from 71.43 to 75.28 per cent. 

While most Tamil Nadu constituencies saw a decline in voter percentage some constituencies improved on their 2019 performance. The constituencies included Coimbatore, Kallakurichi, Salem and Vellore.

Maharashtra’s Chandrapur, Assam’s Jorhat and Chhattisgarh’s Bastar were some other constituencies to record an increased turnout on April 19. 

About 56 villages in Bastar had a polling booth set up for the first time in their villages which could be attributed to its increased turnout.

Phase 2

All 20 Lok Sabha seats of Kerala went for polling on Friday. The state recorded a voter turnout of 70.21 per cent, down from 78 per cent in 2019. PTI reported that at least eight persons died in the state of possible heat stroke or other heat-related issues, amidst polling, in various constituencies, including Palakkad, Alappuzha and Malappuram.

Eight constituencies of Uttar Pradesh that went for polling in the second phase, recorded a voter turnout of 54.85 per cent, a decrease from 62 per cent in 2019. Mathura and Ghaziabad, saw a dip of about 12 per cent and six per cent respectively, in voter turnout compared to 2019.

In fact, of all the states that went to polls in the second phase, UP recorded the lowest voter turnout.

Although the 14 constituencies of Karnataka that went for voting recorded a turnout of over 69 per cent, slightly above 2019, nearly half of the voters in the capital city Bengaluru did not turn up for voting. The approximate voter turnout in three urban constituencies in the city: Bangalore Central was 52.81 per cent, Bangalore North - 54.42 per cent and Bangalore South - 53.15  per cent.

These numbers were nearly on par with the voter turnout in 2019. The same story of voter apathy has carried on since the previous elections. However, Karnataka saw the least drop in voter turnout in the second phase in comparison with other states.

The six constituencies that went to polling in MP recorded a voter turnout of 58.29 per cent, as opposed to 67.6 per cent last time. This was the state that recorded the most drop in voter turnout in the second phase as compared to 2019.

Bihar was the state that saw the second lowest voter turnout. The five Lok Sabha constituencies that went to polls recorded a 57.81 per cent voter, as opposed 62.9 per cent in 2019. 

Apart from these states, Maharashtra and West Bengal too saw a dip in voter turnout.

Northeastern states of Tripura (79.66 per cent) and Manipur (78.78 per cent) recorded the highest voter turnout out of all the other states that went to polling in the second phase on Friday. However, even among these states, the turnout was marginally lower compared to 2019 elections.

Banjarumale, an interior hamlet in Belthangady taluk of Dakshina Kannada district, recorded 100 per cent turnout. This hamlet, which is inhabited by forest dwellers, tribal farmers and collectors of minor forest waste, has 111 voters and each one of them turned up at the only polling booth, completing voting two hours before polling ended at 6pm.