Assembly Exit Polls 2024: Pollsters Predict Cong-NC Sweep In J&K, Congress Likely To Form Govt In Haryana

Most pollsters on Saturday during the exit polls revealed that Congress may will clear majority in Haryana on October 8. But top BJP leaders and candidates questioned the value of the exit poll predictions referring to Lok Sabha elections when most of the assumptions did not match the results.

Pollsters including Dainik Bhaskar, People's Pulse, India Today-CVoter, Republic-Matrize have predicted Congress to win at least 44-50 seats on average out of the 90 seats assembly.

As per pollsters JJP who was in alliance with BJP till earlier this year will win a couple of seats across the state and they are currently in alliance with ASP.

There were 1031 candidates in the fray, 101 of them women and some of the prominent among those in fray included Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD's Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP's Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP's Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt) and O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP's Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat) and Congress's Vinesh Phogat (Julana). Among the independent candidates include Savitri Jindal (Hisar), Ranjit Chautala (Rania) and Chitra Sarwara (Ambala Cantt).

Jammu & Kashmir Polls 2024: Congress-National Conference Alliance May Sweep; BJP Strong In Jammu Region

The Congress-National Conference alliance is expected to sweep the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls this times as per the projections revealed by the pollsters.

The halfway mark of the 90 seat assembly is 45 and pollsters including India Today-CVoter, People's Pulse, Republic-Gulistan and Dainik Bhaskar, the BJP may secure 27-30 seats whereas the alliance might be able to win 40-50 seats on average.

PDP may be able to win around 5-10 seats while other parties will gather 10-12 seats in J&K, according to the pollsters.

The results of the polls will be counted on October 8.

Some of the prominent candidates who were in fray in Jammu and Kahsmir are - Ravinder Raina (BJP, Nowshera), Choudhary Lal Singh (Congress, Basohli), Sham Lal Sharma, (BJP, Jammu North), Raman Bhalla, (Congress, RS Pura – Jammu South), Jugal Kishore Sharma (independent, Shri Mata Vaishno Devi) Pawan Khajuria (independent, Udhampur East), Raman Bhalla (R S Pura), Usman Majid (Bandipora), Pawan Khajuria (independent, Udhampur East), Nazir Ahmad Khan (Gurez) and Taj Mohiuddin (Uri).

The single phase polling for all the 90 assembly seats in Haryana is taking place on October 5.

The assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir took place in three phases - September 18, September 25 and October 1.

Both the assembly polls votes will be counted on October 8.

As the Haryana polls end at 6 pm on October 5, as per the Election Commission guidelines, the exit polls can only be revealed after 6:30 pm.

Keep Following Outlook India For Latest Updates On Exit Polls

According to the ECI data, the first phase of polling, held on September 18, saw an estimated 61.38 per cent voter turnout followed by 57.31 per cent in the second phase, while the final phase registered 69.65 per cent.

Udhampur district, which has four assembly segments, registered the highest voting of 76.09 per cent followed by Samba district, which has three assembly segments. Kathua district (six segments) polled 73.34 per cent, followed by Jammu (11 segments) with 71.40 per cent, Bandipora (three segments) with 67.68 per cent, Kupwara (six segments) with 66.79 per cent and the lowest in Baramulla district (seven segments) with 61.03 per cent.

Overall, after the conclusion of all three phases, the poll percentage stands at 63.45 per cent, which is higher than the turnout recorded in the recently held Lok Sabha elections in the Union Territory, the Jammu and Kashmir CEO office said in a statement.

The Haryana Assembly polls began at 7 am on October 5 and will conclude at 6 pm. According to ECI data 49.13 per cent voter turnout was recorded till 3 pm.

A total of 1,031 candidates are in the fray, including 101 women and 464 Independent nominees.

The exit polls are conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots and leave polling stations, aiming to predict election outcomes before the official results are announced.

These are only predictions and there is no guarantee that the official results will reflect the same picture as these numbers. Many surveys are conducted while interacting with the voters across the polling stations and an assumption is made based on the data collection.

The exit polls give an idea of the trend of the poll results for example, if there will be change in power in that particular state for assembly polls.

According to the rules from the Election Commission of India, the exit poll results cannot be revealed until half an hour after the polls are closed.

This rule starts when the assembly or Lok Sabha elections are announced and stays in place until voting is finished in all the states involved in that election cycle.

Some of the prominent candidates who were in fray in Jammu and Kahsmir are -

Ravinder Raina (BJP, Nowshera),

Choudhary Lal Singh (Congress, Basohli),

Sham Lal Sharma, (BJP, Jammu North),

Raman Bhalla, (Congress, RS Pura – Jammu South),

Pawan Khajuria (independent, Udhampur East)

Jugal Kishore Sharma (independent, Shri Mata Vaishno Devi).

Jammu and Kashmir ministers Raman Bhalla (R S Pura),

Usman Majid (Bandipora),

Nazir Ahmad Khan (Gurez),

Taj Mohiuddin (Uri)

There are 1031 candidates in the fray, 101 of them women and some of the prominent among those in fray include Chief Minister Saini (Ladwa), Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Garhi Sampla-Kiloi), INLD's Abhay Singh Chautala (Ellenabad), JJP's Dushyant Chautala (Uchana Kalan), BJP's Anil Vij (Ambala Cantt) and O P Dhankar (Badli), AAP's Anurag Dhanda (Kalayat) and Congress's Vinesh Phogat (Julana). Among the independent candidates include Savitri Jindal (Hisar), Ranjit Chautala (Rania) and Chitra Sarwara (Ambala Cantt).

National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah was asked by reporters on his opinion about exit polls to which he replied, "The votes are in the boxes. We will know on October 8 what exactly is in and out. Who has got the majority and who has not, so, let us wait till October 8. I do not believe in exit polls. I have never believed in them and I will never."

Haryana recorded 61.00 % voter turnout till 5 pm, as per the Election Commission of India.

Haryana Chief Secretary TVSN Prasad speaking about the single phase voting that took place on October 5, reportedly said, "No big incident has occurred here. And there has been no effect on the voting procedures...The people are aware now in Haryana. I am thankful to the Election Commission also for such a systematic conduct of elections which is famous in the whole world."

People's Pulse has projected 55 seats for Congress in Haryana's 90-seat assembly.

According to pollster People's Pulse, National Conference might emerge as the single largest party in J&K and the projections are 33-35 seats and with their alliance with Congress they may together win 46-50 seats in the 90 seat assembly.

According to Dhruv Research, Congress may lead with 50-64 seats in Haryan Assembly polls out of 90 seats.

While Dainik Bhaskar Predicts that Congress might win 44-60 seats in Haryana.

According to pollster CVoter, BJP might win 27-31 seats while NC and Congress alliance might win 11-15 seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

The pollster also revealed that Omar Abdullah is the top choice for Chief Minister among the people they surveyed.

According to the Gulistan Exit Poll in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections -

BJP is likely to win - 28-30 seats,

Congress is likely to win - 3-6 seats,

National Conference is likely to win - 28-30 seats,

PDP is likely to win - 5-7 seats

Other may get 8-16 seats. 

According to the Matrize Exit Poll the results in Haryana Assembly Polls -

Congress is likely to win - 55-62 seats,

BJP is likely to win - 18-24 seats .

India Today CVoter predicts that in Jammu region NC and Congress alliance may win 11-15 seats while BJP may secure 27-31 seats.

And for Kashmir region, according to CVoter, the NC alliance might be able to score well will 29-33 seats and in contrary BJP may win one seat. PDP and other parties are expected to gather more seats in Kashmir region compared to Jammu, as per CVoter.

The latest PMARQ Exit Polls for the 2024 Haryana Assembly Elections indicate that Congress may win between 51 - 61 seats, with a projected vote share of 44 per cent.

The BJP is expected to secure 27 to 35 seats, accounting for 37 per cent of the vote share.

Meanwhile, other parties, including independents and smaller parties, are likely to capture 2 to 5 seats, representing 19 per cent of the vote share.

Haryana

Senior Congress leader from Haryana Bhupinder Singh Hooda speaking on exit polls said, "I feel that we will win 65 plus-minus seats. Congress will form the government with a thumping majority."

Julana candidate of Congress, Vinesh Phogat said, "This is a moment of happiness for the people of Haryana. This is the result of the atrocities people had to face in the last 10 years. I would like to congratulate the Congress for this brilliant performance."

"From day 1, we've been saying that the BJP will lose and Congress will win. Congress will win more seats than what the exit polls have predicted," says Congress candidate from Thanesar Assembly constituency, Ashok Kumar Arora on exit poll predictions.

J&K

"These elections were fought to keep the BJP out of power and restoration for statehood. Talking about the (Congress-National Conference) alliance, we are in a comfortable position," said Jammu and Kashmir Congress chief Tariq Hameed Karra on exit polls.

J&K

"As per the exit poll predictions, the BJP will likely win 30-33 seats. Talking about Congress-National Conference alliance, they will win 25-26 seats, while the PDP will win 5-6 seats and the remaining seats will be won by the independents," says BJP leader RP Singh.

"As per the exit poll predictions, BJP's vote percentage has increased, and it will win around 28-30 seats. However, I feel that we will win 32+ seats in Jammu region. Besides, BJP will also open its bank in the Kashmir region," says BJP leader Altaf Thakur on exit poll predictions.

Reacting to the exit poll predictions, J&K BJP president Ravinder Raina said his party contested the assembly polls with all its strength. "We are confident that BJP will emerge as the single largest party when the results are out on October 8," he said

Haryana

Anil Vij, former Haryana minister and BJP candidate from Ambala Cantt Assembly seat reportedly said “'Exit poll ki pol pehle bhi khul chuki hai'. as he meant that back in Lok Sabha most of the predictions did not match with the actual results and thus even though the projections lean towards Congress, he is confident that BJP will stay in power in the state.

He also said, "People are still casting their votes and people are standing in line. The last person is yet to cast the vote. The total percentage has not been out yet...Exit poll will be proved wrong and the BJP will form the government. On October 8 BJP will form government."

Haryana CM Nayab Singh stated, "We are confident that the BJP will form the government again with a complete majority on October 8. Work has been done for every section of society in the last 10 years, and the state has been freed from regionalism and dynastic politics."

"Everybody is at the liberty to have an exit poll. They know better what was the criteria. Let us wait for October 8 as I've never relied on exit polls," says Awami Ittehad Party MP Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, on exit poll predictions for Jammu and Kashmir.

“There will be different types of voting in Jammu and in Kashmir. No doubt, BJP will have an edge in Jammu, but not an overwhelming edge as the people of Jammu are not very happy with the BJP government. The problem of Pandits have not been looked into properly. In Kashmir, minorities have faced serious negligence, insults, their rights have been snatched and there is widespread unemployment. So, this series of negative things will impact voting in Kashmir,” says CPI(M) leader Hannan Mollah on exit poll predictions for J-K elections.

“Actually the exit polls reflect the mood of the people in Haryana and the ground realities in the state. There is anger against the BJP in Haryana. On the one hand, farmers are angry with the BJP and its disastrous policies. On the other hand, the way wrestlers were treated when they were protesting at Jantar Mantar, it was an insult to those sportspersons who bring laurels to the country. Among women and youngsters, there is anger against the BJP. So, the results are on expected lines,” says CPI general secretary D Raja

The C-Voter-India Today survey predicted 40-48 seats for the NC-Congress alliance and put the BJP at 27-32 seats in the 90-member J&K assembly.

Dainik Bhaskar pegged the NC-Congress alliance at 35-40 and the BJP at 20-25.

Peoples' Pulse saw the NC-Congress alliance with 46-50 seats as against the BJP's 23-27, while Republic-Gulistan put the the NC-Congress tally lower at 31-36 as against the BJP’s 28-30.

In different polls, the PDP was seen winning between 5 and 12 seats, while other candidates were also seen bagging 4-16 seats.

The results of the assembly elections will be announced on October 8.

Several exit polls on Saturday predicted a clear majority for the Congress in Haryana. 'Dainik Bhaskar' predicted the Congress getting 44-54 seats and the BJP 15-29 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. The Republic-Matrize poll put the Congress tally even higher at 55-62 seats as against the BJP's 18-24.

The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll gave the Congress 50-55 seats in Haryana and the BJP at 20-25, while Dhruv Research pegged the Congress at 50-64 and the BJP 22-32.

Peoples' Pulse exit poll gave the Congress 49-60 seats and the BJP 20-32 seats in Haryana.

Most exit polls pegged INLD tally higher than that of the JJP, while others were seen getting up to 10 seats.