In Haryana BJP Has Won, But Congress Has Not Lost

This story was published as part of Outlook's 21 October 2024 magazine issue titled 'Raavan Leela'. To read more stories from the issue, click here

Who would have thought the humble jalebi, the commonest sweet in most of north India, could twist the Congress in so many knots in Haryana? It was a Bihar assembly polls 2015 moment for the TV anchors too, when the first two hours on the morning of October 8, they were ‘punditing’ a certain narrative, and the next two hours explaining exactly the opposite. No Joseph Heller book could match this live satire.

The Congress offices in most Haryana towns were decked up, flowers and boxes of sweets were in place, firecrackers had been bought, some even burst on the eve of the election results. After all, the exit polls gave the Congress a clear majority. Senior leader Rahul Gandhi was pleased, Congress’ Haryana supremo Bhupinder Singh Hooda was smug in his comments and all analysts were writing reams about how after the not-so-thumping Lok Sabha results, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) was in for another setback.

But the jalebi was hiding many more layers—of hubris among the leadership in the Congress, of factionalism in the party, of the incredible talent of the new, untested BJP Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini to stage a quite coup. (The whole jalebi reference comes from Gandhi’s rally in Gohana, where he said the famous local ‘Mathuram ki jalebi’ was so good it could be exported and could be a way of employment for the youth. Enough to make the internet go berserk with memes).

Saini, 45, who has been chief minister for just 200 days, helped the BJP make history—the third consecutive win for a state, which has only had alternate governments. “It is a decisive victory that has exceeded all exit poll forecasts. For the first time since 1966—when the state was formed—an incumbent government has been elected after serving two consecutive terms. This result demonstrates the consolidation of BJP support across all castes, not just the Jat-dominated areas,” says former Himachal Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur.

While ruling Haryana, Hooda once said he was a Jat first and chief minister later. The Congress’ bid to consolidate the Jat support under him while sidelining other key figures like former Union Minister Kumari Selja—a potential Dalit representative—has backfired. Hooda aimed for a third term as chief minister. He secured a significant portion of tickets for his preferred candidates, some 70 of the 90, predominantly Jats. Notably, all sitting MLAs, many of whom faced strong anti-incumbency sentiments in their constituencies, were also retained. “It is unbelievable how badly we lost,” Selja said once the results were final.

Dalits, having a sizeable presence in Haryana, seem to have also voted for the BJP, realising that the return of the Jat-led regime will not be in their interest and that they will suffer in getting a fair deal, including jobs. “The Haryana election will be remembered in history for two main reasons. First, the Congress squandered away a sure win due to its internal strife, particularly factionalism. Hooda, for instance, should have accommodated Selja. Second, the BJP’s effective micro-management, especially its effective grassroots strategy of uniting the non-Jat bloc that quietly contributed to shifting the balance in its favour at the last minute,” says Satpal Dehiya, a retired professor.

Agrees Rajinder Sharma, professor of political science at the Maharishi Dayanand University, Rohtak. He says the Congress reliance on Jat votes, along with those of Scheduled Castes and Muslims, hoping it to translate into electoral success against the ruling BJP went completely wrong.

“In fact, the Congress’ over-reliance on Jats gave a wrong signal among other communities. Hooda’s running feud with Selja was also not taken well by the electorate. They believed that the underprivileged communities would not have much say in case the Congress gets a majority,” he says. That’s why Kumari Selja also strategically kept herself away from the active campaign. It was a clear signal that all was not well within the Congress. Gandhi, at the Gohana rally with the infamous jalebi comment, was seen making an effort to bring the duo to a common platform. But the rift persisted till the end.

Contrary to this, the BJP fought the elections with a better strategy, learning from mistakes in the 2019 poll when it could not get a majority and had to rely on Dushant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) to form the government and make him deputy chief minister in a post-poll tie-up. As part of a larger strategy, the BJP broke its alliance with the JJP before the Lok Sabha poll, and also replaced incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. It brought Saini—a former state BJP president and an OBC—as chief minister to the scene. The move paid off.

“This was a well-thought-out move to kill two birds with one stone. First, to neutralise the anti-incumbency sentiment of two successive terms and second, to win the trust of OBCs along with other non-Jats, including the Dalits. The results prove that replacing Khattar (who was not seen in any election rallies) proved to be the BJP’s advantage,” says Sampuran Singh, a social activist and former students’ leader in Haryana.

In his brief tenure as the chief minister, Saini faced a formidable challenge of overcoming a decade-long anti-incumbency sentiment, particularly after the BJP’s disappointing performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Yet, he was successful and decisive in revitalising public trust. “His focus on community engagement and addressing local issues resonated with voters who felt overlooked by previous administrations. He used to meet people till midnight, and his doors were always open to everyone. That was not the case with Khattar. Saini has also been meeting farmers to try to address their issues and assure the youths of fair play in jobs,” says Somnath Sharma, senior political journalist.

Insiders in the BJP say that the RSS and its ground network in Haryana proved to be a decisive factor. The Sangh parivar also played a key role in ticket distributions after having mapped all the constituencies, especially those where the BJP was not strong.

Importantly, the poll results also mark the end of dynasty politics in Haryana. The Chautala clan, which had nine family members, including Dushyant Chautala, Abhay Chautal, the many uncles and cousins, all lost. The two-time chief minister, Hooda, too, belonged to a political dynasty. His father—a freedom fighter—had represented Rohtak both in the assembly and the Lok Sabha elections. His son Deepender Singh Hooda is a five-time MP from Haryana. Their political fortunes, too, have hit an all-time low.

But Saini can’t rest easy. Even though the Congress fared poorly in terms of winning seats, it has seen a significant boost in its vote share of over 10 per cent, going up from 28 per cent in 2019 to 39 per cent now. So, it is not as if the Congress and its brand of politics has been completely wiped off from Haryana. They will form a formidable Opposition in the state assembly, and every move of Saini will be watched carefully.

(This appeared in the print as 'Haryana's Dangal')