In Jammu & Kashmir, Winning Elections Is Only The First Hurdle

This story was published as part of Outlook's 21 October 2024 magazine issue titled 'Raavan Leela'. To read more stories from the issue, click here

The headquarters of the National Conference (NC) in Srinagar bore a sombre look on October 8—there were no crackers, drumbeats or sweets. It didn’t seem like the winning party’s office. NC spokesperson Ifra Jan came to the office in the morning, when the NC was leading in over 40 constituencies, but declined to comment. The party’s vice-president, Omar Abdullah, had told workers to neither engage with the media nor indulge in unnecessary celebrations. The chief minister-in-waiting of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) knows the burden of this victory and what lies ahead for the region.

Salman Sagar is one of the NC’s rising young leaders and its youth wing president. When he and his father—senior party leader Ali Mohammad Sagar—arrived at the party’s headquarters, there was little fanfare. This, despite the fact that both had won from their respective constituencies—Salman from Hazratbal and Ali Mohammad from Khanyar in Srinagar. “We were confident that the people would place their faith in us, and we are happy to see that we have won with a substantial majority,” says Salman. He described the election verdict as a rejection of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), saying that the people had voted against both the BJP and its proxies in J&K. “The people of Kashmir have clearly demonstrated that they reject the imposition of these proxies and the BJP’s policy of fragmentation.”

It is certainly a stupendous win for the NC, especially for Omar Abdullah. The people of the Union Territory, especially in Kashmir Valley, have spoken, loud and clear: they did not want a fragmented verdict. Though many have larger concerns like the restoration of Article 370, their immediate worries are more real. “I don’t know about Article 370, but I am hopeful that the government will provide 200 MW of free power supply as a priority once we take over,” says Mohammad Sadiq, an NC supporter.

The BJP’s election pitch to ‘normalise’ J&K and to position the region on the path of development found some takers, but only in the Jammu region. It will be the main Opposition to the NC—the party won 29 seats, its highest ever in J&K. But all the seats the BJP won are from Jammu, not a single one is from the Kashmir region, where it contested from 19 seats. For the Congress, piggy-riding with the NC as an ally, it was its worst performance: winning just six of the 32 seats it contested.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its chief, Mehbooba Mufti, got the biggest jolt in these elections. Of the 81 seats it contested, it won just three—all from the Valley. Worse, Mufti’s daughter Iltija Mufti, who was being groomed as the heir apparent, lost the election from their hometown, Bijbehara. Mehbooba often blames the BJP for breaking her party, even though the PDP had a short-lived alliance with the saffron party. It says the BJP created the Apni Party—almost all its members are from the PDP—as an alternative to the NC and the PDP. The Apni Party lost all the 34 seats it contested. The party’s chief, Altaf Bukhari, lost from the Channapora assembly constituency.

After Engineer Rashid trounced Omar Abdullah in the recently held Lok Sabha polls—while in Tihar Jail in Delhi—there was speculation on the participation of the separatists in the elections. The banned separatist group, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), was in the fray through its independent candidates. But they have come a cropper, not winning from a single constituency.

But the JI’s entry into electoral politics represents a watershed moment in Kashmir, even if the candidates it backed did not win. Unlike the NC and other political parties, which focused on criticising the BJP and raised issues like the restoration of Article 370 and statehood for Jammu and Kashmir, JI candidates prioritised local issues, steering clear of larger narratives. The JI’s electoral performance indicates that the party could emerge as an influential electoral competitor in a few pockets, if it remains active in electoral politics.

One of the most closely watched ideological contests was in Kulgam, where veteran Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) leader, M. Y. Tarigami, faced JI-backed candidate Sayar Ahmad Reshi. Tarigami won his fifth consecutive term, defeating Reshi by over 7,800 votes. Many termed the CPI-M winning from a hardcore JI constituency was like ‘an atheist winning from the Vatican City’. While Reshi’s defeat is perceived as a setback for JI’s foray into electoral politics, the votes he got suggests he didn’t perform so badly—he got over 25,000 votes.

Engineer Rashid was one of the most popular leaders in these elections, certainly outside J&K if not so much in the UT. But his party managed to secure only one seat in Langate, where his brother, Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh, won by a thin margin. The NC has consistently labelled Rashid as the BJP’s proxy, and his own rhetoric and “abusive language” against political opponents did little to elevate his party’s standing. Engineer Rashid seemed to perform better while incarcerated in Tihar, with his son, 23-year-old Abrar Rashid, campaigning on his behalf.

The NC’s winning candidates are mostly from Kashmir Valley—of the 49 seats, it could win only seven from Jammu. The Pir Panjal Range and the Chenab Valley, which are administratively part of Jammu province, have voted for the NC, but a large part of Jammu may go unrepresented in the government. It could be the first cabinet with no representation for the Dogra community. After winning from both the constituencies he contested, Ganderbal and Budgam, Omar Abdullah, now sporting a skull cap, stated: “Systematic, organised and malicious attempts to target and erase the powerful legacy of Sher-e-Kashmir (his grandfather, Sheikh Abdullah) and the NC have ultimately failed. Once again, the people have resoundingly placed their trust in the NC to safeguard their unique identity and historical individuality. They have thrown their support behind us as we fight for their rights that have been unjustly curtailed. We are committed to upholding our tradition and will tirelessly work towards that goal.”

But with his insistence on muted celebrations and showing respect to the BJP, Omar Abdullah knows too well how tough the road ahead is. “None of us are foolish enough to believe we can convince people that we will advance our Article 370 agenda with this current government in Delhi. We understand that we won’t regain what was taken from us by the very government that removed it. Let’s put that aside for now,” he said. His primary focus would be on restoring statehood. He insisted that maintaining a relationship with Raj Bhawan would be crucial, saying a hostile relationship between his government and the Centre will benefit none. Will the Union government now let a democratically elected government function in the Union Territory, or will J&K end up as another Delhi, where not a day passes without a scuffle between the Centre-appointed Lieutenant Governor and the state government?

(This appeared in the print as 'Mountains To Climb')