The by-election results in Kerala have dashed the BJP's hopes of securing a seat in the Legislative Assembly by winning Palakkad, a key battleground for the party.
In Kerala, the by-election outcome provided significant relief to the CPI(M), as they managed to retain their stronghold in the Chelakkara constituency, bolstering their claim that anti-incumbency sentiment is absent. The Congress has plenty to celebrate with Priyanka Gandhi’s astounding victory in Wayanad and the success of young Rahul Mankoottathil in Palakkad. While the national trend appears to favour the NDA, Kerala continues to signal resistance to change.
Both the CPI (M) and the Congress have reasons to celebrate in Kerela, while the BJP has to find reasons to convince their central leadership on the setback faced by the party. The Congress retained the Palakkad Assembly seat by a margin of 18,840 votes, which is significantly higher than the one gathered by Shafi Parambil in 2021. The BJP had managed to gain second place in a photo-finish in 2021, but the party lost around 10,000 votes this time. In addition to the usual factional fights, the sudden departure of Sandip Varier, a prominent figure in the party, has played a role. Varier who raised a bunch of allegations against the BJP leadership , joined the Congress a week prior to polling. Though the state leadership of the BJP maintained the position that Sandeep's resignation would not make any impact, it was evident that the party was shaken. On the other side, the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) that has been in third position since 2016 in Palakkad remained in the same, but garnered around 1,000 votes more than their tally in 2021. The CPM could also retain its strong hold Chelakkara constituency with a comfortable margin of 12,201 votes. Highlighting these two factors, the CPI (M) can argue that there is no anti-incumbency factor, giving hope for 2026.
Despite being kept away from power for two consecutive terms, the Congress could make a clear statement that its foundation in Kerala is unshakable . As per the figures provided by the Election Commission, Priyanka Gandhi is leading by more 60,0000 votes in Wayanad where elections were declared when Rahul Gandhi opted for Ameti in the 2024 Parliament election. Wayanad once again proved that the campaign by the LDF that the ' star MP ' is absent from the constituency has not made any impact. Historically speaking Wayanad is a constituency that puts 'blind faith' in the Congress.
The Palakkad constituency has traditionally been a stronghold of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with the LDF securing the seat only twice since the 1977 delimitation. In 1996, during the politically charged post-Babri Masjid demolition period, LDF candidate T.K. Noushad secured a notable victory by narrowly defeating senior Congress leader C.M. Sundaram. However, this success was short-lived as the UDF reclaimed the seat in 2001. The LDF briefly regained it in 2006 with a slim margin of 1.21%, but have been unable to maintain their hold since, being pushed to third place, reflecting Kerala’s evolving political landscape where the BJP has emerged as a significant force.
Palakkad stands out as a key battleground for the BJP, which has been gaining momentum in the constituency. In the 2016 assembly elections, firebrand BJP leader Shobha Surendran finished second, relegating CPI(M)'s former MP N.N. Krishnadas to third place. In 2021, the BJP fielded the ‘Metro Man’ E. Sreedharan as a surprise candidate, nearly pulling off an unexpected win. However, Shafi Parambil of the UDF narrowly secured victory, aided by cross-voting from CPI(M) cadres in the Communists’ strongholds.
While the BJP has historically struggled to gain traction in Kerala, with its state-wide vote share remaining in single digits for much of its history, Palakkad has been an exception, offering fertile ground for the party’s growth. In 2001, while the BJP secured just 5.02 per cent of votes statewide, it managed 11 per cent in Palakkad—a notable deviation. By the 2006 elections, this divergence became striking, with the BJP's statewide vote share dipping to 4.75 per cent, while it surged to 24.85 per cent in Palakkad, reflecting the constituency’s growing alignment with BJP’s ideology.
This trend continued in 2016 when the BJP’s statewide vote share rose to 10.53%, while in Palakkad, it soared to 28 per cent. That year, Shobha Surendran secured 29.08 per cent of the votes, cementing Palakkad as a BJP stronghold. The momentum persisted in the 2021 elections; although the BJP’s statewide vote share marginally increased to 11.3 per cent, the party maintained a strong performance in Palakkad with 25.6 per cent of the votes.
The ruling CPI(M) faced a challenging period, grappling with numerous allegations and a perceived wave of anti-incumbency. In an unusual move, they welcomed Dr Sarin, who quit the Congress for being denied a ticket. Although it was not easy for the comrades to forget the bitter social media battles he had fought against the CPI(M), the party accepted him and put him forward as their candidate in Palakkad. While Dr Sarin’s candidature was seen as a strategic "surgical strike," it failed to destabilise the Congress, which fielded the young leader Rahul Mankoottathil as a replacement for the popular Shafi Parambil. Parambil, who had won the constituency in both 2016 and 2021, vacated the seat to contest for the Lok Sabha, prompting the by-election in Palakkad.