Islands, Alliances, And Gas: The Tangled Geopolitics Of The Eastern Mediterranean

From the viewpoint of Mr Adnan Shah, a political analyst, in the Mediterranean Sea, where bordering countries like Turkey, Greece and Egypt are engaged in a maritime dance of political posturing, escalation is likely to occur, and the conflict is likely to simmer. At the centre of this geopolitical cauldron is the series of Gas Basins located around 160 km off the shores of the island of Cyprus; here in this part of the Eastern Mediterranean, a single spark could light a geopolitical firestorm. The Levantine Basin, which is part of the larger geopolitical contestation, is located in the Eastern Mediterranean and is home to the largest reserves of hydrocarbons and other resources worth billions of dollars. The large-scale investments by many companies highlight its significance, and this is where geopolitics comes in. The situation intensifies exponentially as the reserves lie in the area of geopolitical rivalries and contestations. The closest entities to these Gas basins are the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus; the two have been on a contentious stalemate since the 1980s. The Republic of Cyprus has deep ties with Greece, strong relations with the West, is a member of the European Union, and, with wider international recognition, is granted an exclusive economic zone that enables it to dejure control over oceanic resources. On the other hand, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is a de facto state whose sovereignty is only recognised by Turkey, has weak international standing, and lacks the same level of recognition.

Turkey and Greece have long been considered the leading players in the Eastern Mediterranean, and for decades, the two have disputed over various areas of maritime territory, much of which stems from Greece’s control over an array of islands located just off Turkey’s shores. Under UNCLOS, these islands make up Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zones, which threaten Turkey’s ability to access key resources such as the natural gas basins to the country’s south. Both nations used the Cyprus conflict as part of this wider political friction, where Turkey argues that Northern Cyprus is entitled to oceanic resources as much as the Republic of Cyprus, and the Turks use that argument to extend their access to the Levantine basin, virtually cutting Greece off. The Greeks were not happy with this proposal, so they have put up their own claims that would cut the former off from the wider Mediterranean. Greece and Cyprus are seeking to use international organisations like the EU to cap Turkish movements in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

The dispute is not limited to the island of Cyprus. Still, it stretches to war-torn Libya, where Turkey and France are involved in battle space supporting the Tripoli (Libya) based govt and Tobruk (Libya) based government, respectively. In the recent past, Turkish lawmakers met with key officials of the UN-recognised government of National Accord based in Tripoli and stuck a deal with them that would connect Turkey’s EEZ to Libya’s northeastern coast; however, it has sparked outrage from other states especially France that backs Cyprus’s claim of Turkey’s intervention in the sovereign waters of Cyprus. It is argued that the reason for the French resentment is because the Turks salvaged the Tripoli-based government in Libya, where France has been supporting the forces of General Haftar of the Libyan National Army, the representative body based in Tobruk. By striking a deal with Tripoli, Turkey had capsized the whole strategy of France and French resentment was seen when it pulled out of NATO’s operation “Sea Guardian” and denounced Turkey’s claim that it had violated the weapons embargo in Libya. As tensions reignited in Libya, it roused the attention of Libya’s immediate neighbour Egypt, who for many years has supported the armed forces of the Tobruk government due to its own geopolitical compulsions. Although located at relatively far from the Gas Basin reserves, Egypt has worked diligently to foster stronger ties with the other Mediterranean powers to access the Basin. 

The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, nicknamed as the OPEC of the Mediterranean, was founded in Cairo in January 2019 and was attended by Officials from Greece, Italy, The Republic of Cyprus, Jordan, Israel, and even Palestine. The goal was to collaborate on the exploration and production of these resources; Turkey was deliberately left out! In Jan 2020, Egypt initiated a large-scale meeting with Cyprus, France, Greece and Italy to denounce Turkey’s actions in Libya. A few months later, in August, Egypt signed a Maritime Boundary Deal with Greece, enabling both countries to cooperate on resource exploitation but would undermine Turkey’s access to the sea. Israel, located on the Eastern shore, has attempted to assert itself into a more dominant position while also garnering the support of the other nations. Much of its policy has revolved around its relationship with Turkey, which has been rocky recently. As Turkey has moved away from Israel, which has led to an alliance between Israel, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, who signed the Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline deal that will bring Mediterranean hydrocarbons to the European markets and bypass Turkey!

The geopolitical map becomes more understandable with two sides emerging on opposite ends: Turkey's close network of allies in Northern Cyprus and Tripoli-based Libya. On the other end is a relatively loose chain of relationships, including Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, France, Israel, Egypt and Tobruk-based Libya. However, most of them have economic, military and diplomatic issues that bar them from asserting more. None of the coastal states has spare assets or resources to employ, and that might exactly be the problem the most significant factor contributing to the tensions is economic.

All Mediterranean nations have faltering economies and monetary and financial complications; the wealth underneath the Sea bed holds promises of economic salvation that the entire region desperately needs to restructure and reconfigure their geopolitical and economic outlooks. Political rhetoric and military posturing are tools to gain an edge in the final negotiations for the final solution. The author is a Political Analyst based in Jammu And Kashmir. The author can be reached at listenadnan@gmail.com