Analysis: A String Of ISIS-K Attacks In Afghanistan Puts China’s Ambitions In A Fix

On December 12, a terrorist attack on a hotel in the heart of Kabul left several Chinese nationals injured. As per reports, the Chinese nationals were used to visiting the hotel quite often. Surprisingly, the attack came a day after when China's Ambassador Wang Yu met with the Taliban regime's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, in Kabul.  Wang Yu had stressed upon the Taliban  "to pay more attention to the security of the Chinese Embassy in Kabul", a statement from the Taliban Ministry of foreign affairs said. 

The ISIS-K or ISIS Khorasan terror group in Afghanistan claimed responsibility for the Kabul attack. Since the Taliban regained control of the nation and the military coalition led by the United States withdrew in the summer of 2021, the group has intensified its attacks.

The attack on the hotel in Kabul appeared to be the most recent in a spate of violent incidents committed against the few nations that the Taliban counts as its allies— Pakistan, Russia, China, and Iran. 

Earlier in December, extremists attacked the Pakistani ambassador at his embassy compound in Kabul, leaving a Pakistani guard gruesomely injured.

Last week, gunmen attacked the Pakistani ambassador at his embassy compound in Kabul, wounding a Pakistani guard. The ambassador himself narrowly escaped assassination. The attack was claimed by ISIS-K, and the Taliban is said to have arrested suspects.

Similarly, in September, two Russian diplomats were killed when a suicide bomber blew himself up near the Russian Embassy in central Kabul, an incident that could apparently be the first attack on a foreign diplomatic post in Afghanistan since the Taliban took control of the nation.

The attacks against the Taliban's supporters reflect an increasing threat to Kabul since it would indicate that the regime is unable to maintain peace and security in the country. Stability and security are vital not only for Kabul itself but also for its neighbours, especially China, which is on a road to achieving the ambition of becoming a mighty economic hegemon in the east and has been for years calling for the end of Western-dominated liberal world order.

China’s interest in Afghanistan began post 9/11 and intensified since the U.S. departure last year. Beijing desires Afghanistan to achieve peace and stability so that it ceases to be a hub for warring extremist groups and China's incessant efforts to promote peace in Kabul over the last decade are vital to Beijing’s political, economic, and strategic interests.

Beijing's calculus is clear: ISIS-K is gaining clout in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, which shares a 70-kilometre border with China, and Beijing wants Kabul’s sturdy efforts to keep ISIS-K at bay. Taliban government, as well, has high expectations that Beijing can provide economic aid, political support, and much-needed diplomatic recognition. 

Moreover, China can only hope to extend its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) —   an ambitious project seeking to create an infrastructural network to facilitate economic activity within central Asia— to Afghanistan only if Kabul quells the ISIS-K and secures the border it shares with China. Peaceful terrain in Afghanistan will also allow Beijing to secure energy trade with alienated Iran, which is battered and bruised by US sanctions. Quad, in a bid to keep in check China’s sphere of influence, is hyper-vigilant in the South China sea, leaving BRI the only alternative for China to realise its politico-economic ambition. Whether Kabul succeeds to stabilise the security situation on its soil, what China desperately wants, remains to be seen.