From Possible To Probable - Why Australia Decided To Raise Its Terror Threat Level | Explained

Amid widespread unrest across the world, Australia has decided to raise its terror threat levels. Based on the advice from security officials, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the country's terrorism threat level now stands at "probable".

The decision comes after a warning from the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation of "increased risk of violence across all ideological spectrums".

What Is Australia's Terror Threat System?

Australia's terror threat system consists of five levels. The lowest level stands at "not expected" and the highest level of threat is "certain".

As per Australian National Security, the "National Terrorism Threat Advisory System provides advice about the likelihood of an act of terrorism in Australia."

Based on the level of the threat, the government prepares for a terrorism related attack and threat and accordingly plans its response.

Terror Threat Level Raised From 'Possible' To 'Probable'

In view of widespread unrest across the world - from the Middle East to the UK and now Bangladesh - the Australian government has decided to raise its threat level for the first time in two yeara.

In 2022, the Australian government decreased its terrorism threat level from to "possible" after nine years of "probable".

In 2014, the Australian government raised its threat level in view of the growing influence of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and increased recruitment of foreigners by the IS.

"When Isil formed its caliphate in the Middle East, significant numbers of Australians were seduced by slick propaganda and false narratives, and that led ASIO to raise the terrorism threat level to probable," stated Mike Burges, the head of the intelligence agency.

Intelligence officials further revealed that since 2014, a total of 11 terror attacks were reported on Australian soil and a total of 21 attacks were detected and thwarted.

Why Has The Threat Level Been Raised Again?

Keeping in mind the recent terror attacks in Australia such as the church stabbing in Sydney, that national security agency reported an increased in polarisation in Australia and other western countries.

The overall geopolitical situation with the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East and a looming Iranian attack on Israel, Islamophobia and Antisemitism is also on the rise in Australia.

Based on the official statement from PM Albanese, the level has been raised based on ASIO's advice that "more Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies".

However, this change in threat level does not mean that an attack on Australia is imminent.

“I want to reassure Australians probable does not mean inevitable and it does not mean there is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger,” stated Albanese, adding that the level has been raised for better preparedness.