Protestors demand President Gotabaya to go, but he has won some breathing space. Much will depend on how the situation pans out.
Can Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, the 73-year-old leader of the United National Party, deliver? Will he be in a position to steer Sri Lanka through the period of economic and financial bankruptcy accompanied by political and social unrest? It is a tall ask from any leader.
But considering the situation, Wickremesinghe is perhaps the island nation’s best bet for the job. The offer was first made to Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Sama Jana Balawegaya (SJB), but he dilly-dallied and put up several conditions. Gotabaya had perhaps asked Premadasa as he has a sizeable section of MPs in Parliament.
Gotabaya therefore gladly offered it to the UNP leader instead. Ironically, Wickremesinghe is the only lawmaker from his party in the Parliament. The UNP had got a drubbing during the 2020 parliamentary elections. In parliament, he will have to rely on the support of Gotabaya’s ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna.
Wickremesinghe comes from unquestioned political pedigree and a leading political family. His uncle Junius Richard Jayewardene had a long innings as President. Wickremesinghe had been the country’s prime minister before and this will be his sixth stint – and obviously the toughest.
The new man has plenty of political experience, but he is more of a backroom boy, good at making deals across party lines. Wickremesinghe has friends across the board in all parties and is known for brokering political deals that no one else could get through. But he is not a popular charismatic leader with great oratorial skills. He certainly will not fire up a crowd like Mahinda Rajapaksa did in his glory days.
Wickremesinghe is a sophisticated urban man more at home with the elite. However, he has been in politics long enough to know all the rules to have a committed grassroot base in the family bastion. One thing going for him is the fact that realising the dire situation in the island, no one is eager to replace him at the moment.
Ranil Wickremesinghe is known for his excellent rapport with successive Indian governments. After the 1987 India-Sri Lanka accord signed between Jawardene and Rajiv Gandhi, while many important ministers including Premadasa (Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa’s father), Lalith Athulatmudali and others criticised it, Ranil Wickremesinghe had been an ardent supporter of the agreement.
Wickremesinghe has maintained cordial relations with New Delhi in power and in the Opposition. His remarks about Prime Minister Narendra Modi are on course. "I desire a deeper connection and I want to thank Prime Minister Modi for Indian economic help to this country," Wickremesinghe has said since taking over as the prime minister.
Wickremesinghe is also perceived to be close to the Rajapaksa family. According to several analysts, he was responsible for ensuring that cases against the Rajapaksas were not pursued during his last stint as prime minister in 2015. One reason why he was picked by Gotabaya Rajapaksa was primarily because the president trusts Wickremesinghe and knows that he will not throw the family to the wolves.
With talk of impeachment and imprisonment of various family members including Mahinda Rajapaksa, the road ahead is filled with uncertainty for the family. Expectation is that Wickremesinghe will look after their interests. But whether public mood will allow this is uncertain.
Has President Gotabaya Rajapaksa won a reprieve with the announcement of a new prime minister to head an interim government? The protests are continuing and it is not yet clear whether the people will relent till Gotabaya is out. Nothing is clear so far, but the interim government will be in place for one year to stabilise the economy.
After that both parliamentary and presidential elections will have to be called to throw up a new leadership. The Rajapaksas will be in no position to contest. But if public mood continues to be virulently anti-Rajapaksa, this holding exercise will not last.
The new prime minister is expected to present a report on Monday on the current state of the economy in relation to essential services, including stocks of food, fuel, fertiliser and gas. Once this exercise is done, he will have a clearer idea of how to proceed.