The Israel-Hamas War carries the risk of escalating into a wider regional conflict as Iran, Syria, and Lebanon show greater involvement. At the same time, whereas the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Saudi Arabia tread cautiously, both the United States and China —along with Russia— flex muscles for dominance in the region. In this conundrum, India can also play a role and both the Arab countries and Israel are looking at the Indian position.
The gruesome attack by the Palestinian group Hamas on Israel on October 7 plunged West Asia into war-like crises. The surprise attack came within two weeks of the holiest Jewish day of Yom Kippur at the end of the holy week of Sukkot. This was exactly like 50 years ago when the Arab countries attacked Israel on the Jewish holiest day in a war that came to be known as the Yom Kippur War. Israel responded to the worst attack on its soil with lethal force in the Gaza Strip.
These developments need to be discussed in the broader geopolitical framework of West Asia as well as the world.
The first and foremost geopolitical development that occurred in recent years in West Asia is the Abrahamic Accords signed in 2020. The agreement was a milestone for ensuring peace and stability in West Asia. Three major West Asian countries, UAE, Bahrain, and Israel, participated in the Accords. The Accords state: “We, the undersigned, recognize the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East and around the world based on mutual understanding and coexistence, as well as respect for human dignity and freedom, including religious freedom.”
It was believed there would be a truce in this region as the Arab countries have entered into a dialogue with Israel. One may recall that Israel also negotiated bilaterally with Egypt and Jordan after the Yom Kippur War in the 1970s.
There were two major factors that led to the signing of the Accords. One, the Arab World realised the futility of incessant war with Israel and wanted to develop the domestic economy with technological assistance from Israel. For instance, the UAE wanted to develop railroad connectivity with Israel which would boost the UAE’s economy. Two, the prices of oil had plummeted fast during the Covid-19 pandemic, putting the Arab economy into a recession. This promoted the Arab countries to diversify their economy which propelled them to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy, especially towards Israel.
The Middle East Monitor (MEM) reported in July 2022 that since the signing of the Accords in August 2020, Israel-UAE trade increased by 130 per cent, Israel-Egypt trade increased by 41 per cent, Israel-Jordan trade by 54 per cent, and Israel-Morocco trade by 94 per cent. Some of the statistical data from the MEM report suggests that the Accords have positively impacted the growth of the West Asian economies.
In this regard, it is pertinent to highlight, as discussed above, that when the global economy headed towards a recession, trade of Arab countries with Israel increased substantially. This is a positive development in the context of the otherwise murkier geopolitics of West Asia. One aspect that needs to be highlighted here is that the Accords still deterred many Arab countries from taking a tough position against Israel.
In this regard, it can be underlined here that there are reports from various quarters that Iran and Saudi Arabia are talking to each other about the Israel-Palestine dispute. However, Saudi Arabia will not go against Israel, keeping the economic factors in mind. At the same time, the involvement of the United States in the war by supporting Israel, including providing military aid, might deter Saudi Arabia from participating actively in the negotiations with Iran. Similarly, the UAE also appeals for peace in the region. As has been reported, Iran, Qatar, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Syria are taking a hardliner posture against Israel.
In this regard, it can be underlined here that as the Israel-Hamas War gets more intense, one can notice the spillover effect in the West Asian geopolitics. Studies suggest that most of the weapons and missiles, including drones, that Hamas is currently using are supplied by Iran. As per a recent Voice of America report, Iran’s weapons constitute around 70 per cent of the total arms of Hamas. Other studies also suggest the direct involvement of Iran and Hezbollah in supporting Hamas’s terrorist acts.
Iran, which has been riddled with economic sanctions over the years, may face difficulty if the international community imposes further sanctions. The EU countries have developed a soft corner approach in recent years towards Iran for securing oil and may distance themselves from Tehran after the outbreak of war. This may isolate Iran further in the global geopolitics. The present geopolitical impasse may also have a detrimental impact on the regional geopolitics of West Asia.
It is true that slowly the Israel-Hamas War is having a detrimental impact on the regional geopolitics of West Asia, which was moving towards normalcy after the end of the Syrian War. We were witnessing a new form of rapprochement towards peace in this region after the signing of the Abraham Accord. It needs to be mentioned here that the present War has also resulted in a new form of realignment of the Arab World.
The same can be observed from decisions taken at the recently-concluded foreign ministers’ meeting of the Arab League in Cairo. The meeting called for an “immediate ceasefire” and took a partisan position by calling Israel’s action a “horrendous act of vengeance”. The declaration underlined “the importance of resuming the peace process and starting serious negotiations between Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel”. The moot question that arises here is why the Arab League has not condemned the terrorist act of Hamas. At the same time, the crisis situation has also put a narrower option before the Arab countries in the present war as while they cannot budge from their traditional line of supporting Palestine simultaneously, they also have to engage economically with Israel, which is benefitting them.
Another important issue that will confront this region’s geopolitics is who the Arab countries will recognise as the representatives of Palestinians: the moderate section of Palestine or the terrorist group Hamas? There are four likely impacts of the Israel-Hamas War on the regional peace of the West Asian region:
The present Israel-Hamas War certainly, as in the past, has given external powers to intervene and take up the position. As President Joe Biden stated: “We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
This move by Washington clearly demonstrated the intent of the Biden administration to assist Israel in the hour of crisis. As expected, the United States provided armed assistance to Israel and moved its nuclear-laden submarines to the Mediterranean Sea as a show of solidarity. This movement is aimed at preventing attacks on Israel from Iran or Syria. These nuclear submarines as reported will checkmate the flow of arms from Iran and Syria to the terrorist group Hamas. As US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated: “We’re delivering on our word – supplying ammunition, interceptors to replenish Israel’s Iron Dome, alongside other defense materiel. The first shipments of U.S. military support have already arrived in Israel, and more is on the way.” Blinken’s statement clearly indicates that Washington is keen to have a preponderant role in West Asia and intends to checkmate Iran, China, and Russia.
Similarly, China is more interested in taking advantage of the situation as it has a substantial interest in the region. This is more so after it brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, one does not expect much changes in the West Asian geopolitics from the peace deal. As Saudi’s close linkage with the United States and the India-initiated IMEC project certainly put China on the backfoot. It posed a substantial challenge to China’s dream of unilateral domination over West Asian geopolitics through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In this context, one can state that the IMEC project will flourish despite the present war as the Arab countries are desperate to expand their geo-economic leverage through trade and commerce. Hence, it can be stated that the IMEC project will put the two major partners of the IMEC —UAE and Saudi Arabia— to adopt a reconciliatory position with Israel to resolve the present impasse. This will certainly weaken the so-called Arab unity, unlike in the past when both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi used to take a hardline posture against Israel.
So, in a nutshell, it can be underlined that the IMEC project will not face any difficulty because of the war. IMEC, as a connectivity project, certainly has a potential and positive role to play in future. Even Israel is a key player in the project and taking a keen interest.
However, China’s growing proximity with Palestine, as evident from the visit of Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas in June and the signing of the strategic partnership agreement, certainly baffled Israel. Similarly, as studies suggest, China has provided all sorts of assistance to Hamas since the 1960s. It has also been observed that Hamas is using weapons manufactured in China. Even one cannot also rule out that China may have a role in pushing Iran and Hamas for the present war against Israel to disrupt the IMEC project.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry has also taken a strong position against China for its failure to condemn recent Hamas terrorist acts. As the Israel Foreign Ministry stated: “Israel's deep disappointment with Chinese announcements and statements about the recent events in the south, where there was no clear and unequivocal condemnation of the terrible massacre committed by the terrorist organisation Hamas against innocent civilians and the abduction of dozens of them to Gaza.”
As reports suggest, China is keener to exploit the situation in West Asia arising out of the present war between Israel and Palestine. Hence, China’s role is quite intriguing. Instead of condemning Hamas’s terror tactics, the Chinese foreign ministry only called “the fundamental way out of the conflict lies in implementing the two-state solution and establishing an independent State of Palestine.”
Like China, Russia is also caught in the imbroglio. It is a fact that Russian-emigrated Jews constitute the largest segment of Israel’s population. At the same time, many of them have occupied high positions in the policymaking circles. But despite this, Russia shares good relations with Palestine. This relationship can be traced back to Cold War days. At the same time, Israel is one of the major investors in Russia’s defence sector. This complicated relationship with both Israel and Palestine put Russia in a spot.
Immediately after the onset of the War, Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated, “We call on the Palestinian and Israeli sides to implement an immediate ceasefire, renounce violence, exercise restraint and begin, with the assistance of the international community, a negotiation process aimed at establishing a comprehensive, lasting and long-awaited peace in the Middle East.”
The question that arises here is whether Russia can bring Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas to the negotiation table with Israel. This is because Russia has a traditional relationship with the above-mentioned state and non-state actors. So also, the entry of the US in the present War may propel Russia to play its own traditional card in the form of providing diplomatic support to Arab countries in the present war. This is because Russia does not want to diminish its sphere of influence on the Mediterranean coast despite its own preoccupation with war with Ukraine.
Both Turkey and Pakistan are also dabbling in this war by supporting Hamas and its terrorist act against Israel. The Erdogan regime is known for promoting and patronising radical and terrorist agendas both in Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies. So, it is natural that Turkey supported Hamas’s terrorist acts over the years and it has also not condemned the recent terrorist act of Hamas. It is a known fact that many Hamas leaders regularly visit Turkey and have wide support from the Erdogan regime. Turkey wants to use Hamas as a front to reclaim its lost position in West Asia after the Second World War as it wants to create a new form of Ottoman sphere of influence in this part of the world. Thus, Ankara under Erdogan is employing religious bigots as a means to achieve its goal. Hence, Erdogan’s proposal to mediate in the present war between Israel and Hamas has no credibility as Israel can never consider Turkey a trustworthy partner.
Similarly, Pakistan, known for sponsoring terrorism as a state policy, has been keen to enter into this fray in the name of religious affinity. It is a known fact that Hamas get deep sympathy from Pakistan and it has yet to recognise Israel. A number of reports suggest that over the years, Pakistan has provided training to Hamas terrorists in Pakistan. It is a well-known fact that all the political parties of Pakistan support Hamas. Like China and Turkey, Pakistan has also not criticised Hamas’s recent barbaric terrorist act against Israel. The Washington Post has reported that many of the weapons of Pakistan are reaching Hamas through the Ukraine route.
It has been observed that whenever there is a war in West Asia, the immediate implication is the rise in energy prices. However the situation has been quite different in recent years. The US, considered to be a major importer of West Asian oil, is now the major exporter even though its prices are a bit higher in the international market. As the same time, Israel in recent years is also emerging as a major exporter of energy, especially to European countries, especially Greece and Cyprus. So the present disruption of energy supplies due to the present war has aggravated energy supply to the European countries.
Already, the European countries are suffering a major energy crisis because of the Ukraine War and might face difficulty if supply from West Asia stops. This may heighten the energy crisis for Europe in the coming winter. At the same time, there will be a rise in energy prices in the international market. It is not only the European countries that are suffering; even Asian countries will suffer a lot in the coming months if the Israel-Hamas War does not stop immediately. Along with this, the spillover effect of the war will impact the flow of energy through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz — known as major arteries of energy supply in the international market. The prices of energy are rising faster, which will harm the global supply of energy and its pricing.
Whenever there is a War in West Asia, the impact is felt in India. So, the present war is also likely to impact India’s economic engagement with the region. Over the years, some West Asian countries have been major trading partners of India, like Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It is also true that India imports a substantial amount of energy from the West Asian market. Thus, the war might impact the energy trade between India and West Asia.
India strongly criticised Hamas which waged a war against Israel. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated, “People of India stand firmly with Israel in this difficult hour. India strongly and unequivocally condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.” Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has also had a telephone conversation with him, updating him on the situation. The crisis Israel is currently facing will also have a detrimental impact on trade relations between the two countries for a shorter duration. At the same time, as discussed above, the IMEC project will not suffer any adverse impact because of the onset of the war.
Since India has enormous goodwill in West Asia and is a major power, it can play a role in defusing the present crisis. There is a likelihood of the spillover of the present war in the wider region. In this context, West Asian countries like Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt might approach India to resolve the crisis. India has also launched Operation Ajay to rescue Indians living in Israel.
The Israel-Hamas War will not end soon. Instead, in the forthcoming days, one can see the spillover effect of the War on the whole of West Asia as Iran, Syria, and Lebanon are also flexing their muscle against Israel. Iran should understand that by supporting terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, it is losing its credibility in the international community. The Assad regime of Syria should concentrate on rebuilding the country instead of engaging in another War with Israel.
Conversely, Egypt is taking a cautious approach, understanding the repercussions and learning from past experiences. External powers outside the region may also try to navigate the geopolitics of West Asia arising out of the present war between Israel and Palestine. For instance, the United States and Russia are considered the traditional players in opposite camps in this part of the world and will play a significant role in the war. This is even though Russia is currently preoccupied with its war with Ukraine. However, China has been trying to take advantage of the geopolitical flux of this region in recent years. However, China’s move is further polarising the Arab world as countries like UAE and Saudi Arabia, along with Israel, are apprehensive of Beijing’s move. The present geopolitics in the region reminds you of the Cold War’s West Asian geopolitics. Both Turkey and Pakistan are continuing their respective policy of supporting and providing sanctuary to Hamas. Looking at the present geopolitical developments, the situation in West Asia appears to be quite flux.
In this context, one may envisage a more significant role for India in addressing the crisis. This is because India shares good relations with the West Asian countries, including Israel. At the same time, the IMEC project initiated by India will also provide New Delhi with a greater role in the West Asian geoeconomic framework.
(Nalin Kumar Mohapatra is an Assistant Professor at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.)