Trump Vs Kamala: Divided By Ukraine, United By Israel

As the 2024 US election draws closer, global attention is turning to America's future foreign policy direction. With two wars—Gaza and Ukraine—dominating international headlines, the US is under increasing pressure to shift course and restore stability in West Asia, as well as establish clearer goals for Ukraine.

When it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war, Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris advocate very different approaches to involvement in the war and the U.S. relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin; but when it comes to the war on Gaza, there’s a competition over who is the strongest supporter of Israel and its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump, Harris At Odds Over Ukraine

As Ukraine nears the end of its third year of war, Republicans and Democrats continue to differ over US policy toward the war-torn country.

Harris has broadly indicated that she will continue to pursue the Joe Biden administration's policy objectives, which are to assist Ukraine in defending and restoring its sovereignty against Russian aggression while reducing the risk of direct North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) involvement in the war with Russia.

In contrast, Trump has been vague regarding the level of future US support for Ukraine if re-elected. During the presidential debate in September hosted by ABC News, Trump refused to answer if he wanted Ukraine to win its war with Russia, instead stating, "I want the war to stop”, and urging the two countries to negotiate a deal.

The former president has been critical of the Biden administration for sending billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. Given his close ties with Vladimir Putin, Trump has maintained that the Russian President would never have invaded the country if he were president. Experts say that if Trump comes to power, he may take a more pro-Russian stance, asking Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia by curtailing US support for Kyiv.

So far, the United States has provided Ukraine with considerably more military aid than any other country since Russia's invasion began. According to the Kiel Institute, US military aid to Ukraine had already totalled $55.5 billion as of the end of June. That is close to half the total delivered by all of Ukraine’s international backers.

Harris, Trump Unite On Israel

When it comes to Israel’s war on Gaza, in which more than 41,000 Palestinians have already been killed, there is a status quo in the policies of Republicans and democrats.

Both parties support what they call "Israel's right to self-defence" by providing it with sophisticated weapons. While Donald Trump insists he would let Israel "finish the job" in Gaza, Kamala Harris promises that she will continue the Biden Administration's policy of giving Israel "everything it needs."

According to a report by Brown University's Watson Institute, the US has provided Israel with $17.9 bn in military aid alone since the 7 October Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, the highest amount of military aid in the two countries' histories.

In the September presidential debate, Trump argued, “If she’s president, I believe that Israel will not exist within two years.” Harris responded by reiterating her support for Israel, saying, “I have my entire career and life supported Israel and the Israeli people.”

Harris did have words of sympathy for Palestinians in Gaza, saying, “far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed.” But in contrast to Harris’ outline of Israeli deaths, she made little effort to explain the scale of the death and devastation in Gaza beyond the vague term “too many.”

On the issue of a Palestinian state, Harris supports a two-state solution, while Trump's previous peace proposal was seen as strongly favouring Israel.

What Drives US Support For Israel?

American comedian and actor Groucho Marx once quipped, "All people are born alike — except Republicans and Democrats." The Republicans and Democrats find themselves at odds on almost all issues, including gun ownership, abortion rights, immigration, gender identity, and climate change. But there’s one issue which almost unites them—support for Israel.

"It is no secret that the United States is Israel’s best friend, fitting perfectly into the US' Middle Eastern strategy," says Shreya Upadhyay, Deputy Director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies. "In the post-Cold War period, Israel has been seen in Washington as a shield against Soviet influence in the Middle East and a counter to Arab nationalism."

Upadhyay also highlighted the substantial influence of pro-Israeli lobby groups in the United States. "With over 50 organisations, including the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), these groups have considerable influence on American politics." She noted that Jewish Americans, who are largely pro-Israel, contribute billions of dollars in donations during election cycles.

While Americans largely vote based on domestic issues, foreign policy influence may play out a role in this election, especially with regard to Gaza.

The US administration's current support to Israel has seen protests across the US, especially among students, young professionals, and Muslim Americans. This can cause pro-Palestinian supporters to abstain from voting or turn towards third parties candidates. And many of those who object to Biden’s war policy are democratic voters.