The Swing States That Could Seal The US Presidential Elections

Seven US states will play a key role in deciding who will become the president of the United States in the close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The voting in these 'swing states' in the 2024 elections will drastically influence the outcome of the presidential elections. 

What Are Swing States? 

A 'swing state; is a state where the Democratic and Republican candidates have "similar levels of support." The number of battleground states changes every presidential election. 

In the US presidential election system, while the people cast their votes for the presidential candidates, they are not directly electing the president. Instead, each of the 50 states and Washington DC is assigned a certain number of 'electors' based on their population. The 538 electors from across the country form the 'electoral college', which is the body that directly elects the US President. Once the votes are tallied in a state, the electors of that state are assigned to the candidate who got the most votes. The candidate who crosses the mark of 270 electors in the electoral college becomes the president-elect. 

In this system, while the difference in popular vote may be very narrow in one state, the 'winner-takes-all' approach hands all the electors to the winner. In this scenario, the states where the difference in numerical support for the candidates is narrow, meaning they can 'swing' either way, become crucial to the process.

For the 2024 elections, a total of seven swing states have been identified:

1. Michigan

2. Wisconsin

3. Nevada

4. Arizona

5. Georgia

6. North Carolina

7. Pennsylvania

Across these seven states, 93 electoral votes are up for grabs, ultimately deciding whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be elected as the next President of the United States.

What Makes A State 'Swing'?

For the November Polls, Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes, will be one of the critical states in focus.

Since 1992, Pennsylvania had been a blue state, voting for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election. Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, it formed a reliable 'blue wall' for the Democrats. However, in 2016, the state flipped and voted for Donald Trump, making him the first Republican candidate to secure the state since 1988. Trump flipped the remaining blue wall states along with Pennsylvania.

However, after four years of the Trump presidency, Biden managed to reinstate the blue wall by a narrow margin. 

A key reason Pennsylvania became a swing state is the large number of working-class residents. In the 2016 elections, Trump managed to win over the working class. However, Joe Biden, struck a chord with the bloc in 2020. 

The state's significantly older population played a crucial role in Trump's 2016 win as well.

Vice-President Kamala Harris has visited Pennsylvania at least ten times since she was endorsed as the Democrat candidate. However, another event may decide how this state votes—the assassination attempt on Donald Trump—which occurred in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Trump and Harris remain locked in a dead heat for the 2024 elections. According to the latest opinion polls, Harris enjoys a narrow lead with 49 per cent support. Trump follows close behind with 48 per cent.

Harris is leading by less than one or a one-point margin in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The same is true for Trump in North Carolina and Georgia. However, in Arizona, the former president has a two-point lead.

Swing States and the 2016 Elections

For the 2016 elections between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, 12 states were identified as Swing States. Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin were the battleground states for Democrats and Republicans.

Of these swing states, Clinton won 32 Electoral College votes from Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. However, Donald Trump won 114 Electoral College votes from Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Overall, Trump received 304 Electoral College votes and secured his place as the 45th president of the United States.

Swing States and the 2020 Elections 

For the 2020 elections between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, 13 swing states were identified. These were: 

1. Arizona

2. Florida

3. Georgia

4. Iowa

5. Michigan

6. Minnesota

7. Nevada

8. New Hampshire

9. North Carolina

10. Ohio

11. Pennsylvania

12. Texas

13. Wisconsin

Trump won five battleground states (Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas). Joe Biden won the remaining eight (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

During the 2020 elections, a row erupted over the Electoral College votes in Georgia as Trump alleged voter fraud. Trump, who enjoyed an early lead in the battleground state, was defeated after the mail-in ballots were counted, making Biden the first Democrat to carry Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. 

The US Elections 2024 will be held on November 5, 2024. A total of 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in the 2024 polls. The latest data shows that around 41 million Americans have already cast their votes with early ballots.