Tropical Storm Lee has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and is expected to rapidly strengthen into a strong category 4 hurricane by this weekend. Tropical Storm Lee has a center of circulation over 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Tuesday afternoon, Lee became the 13th storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. According to National Hurricane Center records, that was almost seven weeks sooner than the normal 13th storm date of October 25.
Over the next few days, Lee will move west-northwest. This will take it over increasingly warm ocean water in a low-shear zone. Some dry air is ahead in the Atlantic's main growth region east of the Lesser Antilles, but Lee appears likely to insulate itself from that dry air once it establishes its core.
Given the generally favorable conditions for strengthening, the National Hurricane Center predicts Lee will become a hurricane by late Wednesday and a Category 4 hurricane by this weekend.
What might happen next?
Next week's path of Hurricane Lee will be determined by a number of factors. This forecast, like other hurricane forecasts, is subject to change.
That includes the strength and extent of the Bermuda-Azores high at the time. In the tropics, this serves as a steering wheel for hurricanes.
If the Bermuda-Azores high becomes weaker and less expansive, the hurricane may recurve into the central Atlantic without affecting the continental United States.
If the high becomes stronger, wider, and moves westward, it might direct this system further west and pose a threat to at least sections of the United States East Coast later next week.
For the time being, the bulk of ensemble computer model guidance during the last few days suggests that the "recurve" scenario is most likely next week.
Even if this recurve scenario holds true, it could pose a threat to Bermuda and areas of Atlantic Canada by the end of next week.
Lee will also likely cause severe high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion throughout much of the East Coast next week, not to mention The Bahamas and the north-facing shores of Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the northern Leeward Islands.