Will Iran Avenge The Killing Of Its Hamas Guest?

In the wee hour of July 31, a huge thud followed by a bang rattled the high-profile area of the Iranian military veterans in north Tehran. Before anyone could gauge the situation, frenzy in the area hinted that something “unusually extreme” had just happened. Some hours later, Iran government cleared the mist around the incident saying its “dear guest” had been assassinated.

The theocratic nation led by its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel for killing Political Bureau Chief of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard identified as Wasim Abu Shaaban. Iran’s accusation hold weight considering Tel Aviv had announced all-out war against militant group Hamas on October 8, last year, following the group’s audacious attack inside the Israeli territory. Post Hamas attack, Israeli’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant had warned, “They are living on borrowed time.”

Iranian authorities claim that the attack was not carried out by assassins in person but was an “airborne guided projectile fired from outside".

Later, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) in a statement said, "short-range projectile armed with a warhead weighing approximately seven kilograms, which subsequently caused a massive explosion."

IRGC added, "the projectile was launched from an area outside the late Hamas leader’s residence".

Haniyeh had been living away from his home in Palestine. He was living in exile in Qatar and had arrived in Iran for newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian’s swearing-in ceremony.

A Sunni Muslim, the Hamas leader had a major hand building up the group’s fighting capacity, partly by nurturing ties with Shi’ite Muslim Iran, which makes no secret of its support for the group.

Haniyeh, at 62, was also widely considered the group's political leader and has been a prominent member of the Palestine "movement" for more than two decades.

In 2006, Haniyeh led Hamas to a legislative election over the Fatah movement which had been in power for more than 10 years in Palestine.

However, he was dismissed after the governments in West refused to work with Hamas. He was elected head of Hamas’s political bureau in 2017, and the US Department of State designated him a “terrorist” in 2018.

In 2019, having stepped down as Hamas head in Gaza, Haniyeh left the enclave and began living abroad, leading the group’s diplomatic efforts as its political chief.

On April 10, 2024, three of his children – Hazem, Amir and Mohammad, along with a number of his grandchildren — were killed in Gaza, amid the continuing war.

This is not the first time that such a high profile killing has taken place on Iranian soil.

Nearly over a decade and a half back, in January 2010, a professor at Tehran University, Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, was killed by a remote-controlled bomb planted on his motorcycle. Ali-Mohammadi was said to be a nuclear scientist. Later, in the same year in November, a professor in the nuclear engineering faculty at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, Majid Shahriari, was killed in a car explosion on his way to work.

Two years later in 2012, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a chemical engineering graduate, was killed by a bomb placed on his car by a motorcyclist in Tehran. Ahmadi Roshan was also said to be a nuclear scientist.

During Covid-19 in 2020, another nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was shot and killed while driving outside Tehran. Two years later, in May 2022, Colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei of the IRGC was shot five times outside his home in Tehran.

The fresh assassination has rattled political dispensations across the globe, however analysts based in Iran project a different “reality”.

An analyst, working with Iran’s state-run media wishing anonymity, says though there have been assassination attempts on Iranian nuclear scientists and other high-profile people on the country’s soil, “it doesn’t mean that the country is complacent or incompetent to deal with its enemy.”

“Iran is at war with Israel. Iran's policy has not been of target killing, but Iran has also damaged Israel significantly. Despite claiming of having the best radar system in the world and so called ‘iron dome’, resistance groups such as Yemen's Houti were able to strike Tel Aviv. Hezbollah has released series of drone videos showing sensitive military, nuclear and other facilities in Israel,” says the analyst who remained anonymous.

The analyst also states that Israel doesn't want any peace at a time when the negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was on cards.

“They have proven this time and again. They assassinated the chief negotiator; this is enough to prove their inkling towards ceasefire,” the analyst said.

Another analyst, also wishing not to be named, from Indian subcontinent who has been living and working in Iran from past five years foresees that the “adventure” from “Iran’s enemy” won’t go unanswered. However, the journalist, believes that the response from Iranian state may not be “direct” but “subtle.”

“See Iran does not want to plunge in a full-fledged war, but Israel has been violating the boundaries. We will have to wait for Iranian response. Iran will not forget this attack and leave it unanswered,” the above analyst said.

He further added, “Resistance groups have already issued statements in this regard. They are independent in their policies and said that they will avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh.”

Another analyst journalist wanting to remain anonymous, who is working with the country’s state run media said Iran is in war with Israel and under such circumstances it is believed that such things happen. The above analyst added, “Iran will also do significant damage to Israel which it has been doing for many years now.”