Iffy-16 Goin' On 30

• Setting up maintenance facilities for the F-16 could cost nearly Rs 10,000 crore. This is above the Rs 13,500 crore that has to be budgeted to purchase 126 multi-role aircraft. The air force cannot afford it.
• The US has low-reliability on supply of spares and after sales support. Any fresh US sanction could mean India holding a $3 billion dud.
• The F-16 is a 30-year-old design. The US air force no longer purchases the aircraft.
• There are better orcomparable aircraft in the reckoning which could cost lesser to induct in the long run
• The Mirage 2000-5, which the air force is keen on, comes with a modular design which can easily be upgraded. It can be put to use till 2015. The F-16 cannot be upgraded.

A few days after March 25, when the US formally communicated to New Delhi its offer to sell F-16 fighters to India, senior Indian air force officers went into a huddle at air headquarters. Was the US offer one that would transform India into a global superpower as the Americans put it? Or was it only hardsell to palm off an aircraft which was designed 30 years ago and which the US air force itself is pensioning off for more advanced fighters? Many who participated in the discussions were not particularly enthusiastic about the American offer. They felt that the Bush administration was only bailing out the F-16 manufacturers, Lockheed Martin, from the red through a $3-billion sale. One senior air force officer even went to the extent of saying that one must approach the US offer with scepticism. "Can you trust the Americans? After all, they pulled the plug on Pakistan, their ally for 50 years and have given them an outdated aircraft," he noted with some exasperation.

But the die has been cast. The question of whether India should go in for the F-16 has suddenly become critical. As far as the US government is concerned, it has cleared the decks for Lockheed Martin and Boeing to bid for the 126 fighters that the IAF requires. New Delhi, meanwhile, has sent across a Request for Information (RFI). This is the first step that brings the F-16 formally into the reckoning. Prior to this, India was considering options like the French Mirage-2000-5, the Swedish jas-39C Grippen and the MiG-29M.

While the IAF awaits a reply from the two US aviation majors, senior officers at air headquarters are already punching in the numbers to arrive at an estimate of what it will cost the air force if it opts for the F-16. The figures are staggering. Forget the $3 billion (nearly Rs 13,500 crore) the 126 fighters would cost. Another Rs 10,000 crore would have to be invested to set up support infrastructure. A top IAF officer told Outlook: "We already have the most varied fleet in the world. For each type of aircraft, we have to set up elaborate maintenance facilities. If we were to induct an aircraft that is not in our fleet, then it could cost us something in the region of Rs 10,000 crore." According to him, from mission computers to weapons systems, engine test-beds and weapon-aiming components, each will need labs as well as maintenance facilities. Setting up a new line for the F-16 could also prove to be a logistical nightmare.

If the financial outlay is so huge that the IAF cannot afford it, senior officers also worry about American honesty and reliability vis-a-vis aftersales support and supply of spare parts. Says former air chief A.Y. Tipnis, who led the air force during the Kargil war, "The US track record is abominable. What if they hold back spare parts at a critical stage? We have to make sure we can act independently." What he means is that the US should not be allowed the option of crippling our air operations through sanctions.

Serving officers couldn't agree more. "We need a multi-role aircraft to ensure that we maintain a conventional edge over our adversaries. However, a conflict with the adversary like in the recent Kargil war could force the Americans to put fresh sanctions against us. What do we do then?" asks a senior IAF official. Tipnis also points out that these are issues far more important than the prowess of the aircraft. "The F-16 is not a paradigm shift in quality from what we already have in our fleet. There are issues of reliability of support when the chips are down that outweigh any other consideration."

Many within the IAF's top brass are yet to forget their experience with the Star Sapphire radars supplied by the US in the aftermath of the Sino-Indian border conflict of 1962. The radars were placed to cover the western, eastern and northern air spaces. However, as soon as fresh US sanctions were put in place after the 1965 war with Pakistan, spare parts and aftersales support dried up and the radars were no longer of any use. Around this time, the IAF had also sought the F-104 Starfighter from the US, which was denied. In the aftermath of the Pokhran nuclear tests in May 1998, when America announced new sanctions, the Indian navy's Sea King fleet was virtually grounded and the Light Combat Aircraft programme delayed by several years.

"From a purely military and economic angle, I would prefer the Mirage-2000-5," says former air chief S.K. Kaul. "Look at what the Americans did to the Pakistanis, their ally for over 50 years. They declared sanctions against them. So how can we trust them? India has always been a good market for the last 50 years, but the Americans always kept us on the blacklist. Now we need to tread very carefully," he cautions. Former vice-chief Air Marshal Vinod Patney feels that the Americans must be "engaged" before the IAF takes any decision. "We need to see how much we can exploit the offer for the F-16 and the F/A-18 from the Americans. If that means that we will benefit in terms of more cooperation in other areas of sensitive technology, then we will have to factor those in." Aviation experts point out that while considering a new aircraft, one also has to look at whether there is any transfer of technology or any licence to manufacture it within the country. Says Air Commodore Jasjit Singh (retd), director, Centre for Air Power Studies, "The issue to my mind is the choice between the French Mirage-2000-5 and the US F-16 or F/A-18, to be manufactured in India jointly. If we go in for the F-16, then we must ensure that we get enough leverage."

The IAF, which currently has too many types of aircraft in its fleet, is keen to zoom in on one fighter to consolidate its fleet. And the Mirage-2000-5 has been considered a suitable frontrunner. The MiG-29M is not a multi-role aircraft, while the jas-39C Grippen comes close to the IAF's requirements. For the air force, the Mirage-2000-5 has an added advantage as it comes in a modular design that is easy to upgrade. This is not the case with the F-16. Also, with two squadrons of Mirage-2000s in its fleet, the IAF already has the infrastructure in place to absorb new batches of the aircraft. The fact that the cabinet committee on security cleared the decks for the IAF to negotiate with Qatar for 12 Mirage-2000-5s is another indication of the IAF's preference. Add to that, the performance of the Mirage-2000 during the Kargil war and it pretty much seals up the argument in its favour.

As criticism of the American offer for the 30-year-old aircraft mounts, the present incumbent, Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi, has to factor in the fresh batch of F-16s that the Pakistan air force (PAF) will get in the coming years. IAF estimates show that the PAF, which presently has two-and-a-half squadrons of F-16, will gain by four more squadrons. With air force intelligence estimating some 70 F-16s to go to Pakistan, it will be a quantum jump in the PAF's defensive as well as offensive capabilities. "We estimate that after the induction, the PAF's combat strength will go up by at least 300 per cent," says a senior IAF official.

The US decision to sell fighters to Pakistan means that India too will have to augment its fleet. The air chief will have to zero in on the combat aircraft that the IAF finds most suitable. But the procurement process will have to be speeded up. The balance of power in the region that the US has upset will have to be set right. That too, the sooner the better.