It’s The Economy, Cupid

During a brief stopover in New Delhi in 1959, Ayub Khan had made a suggestion to Jawaharlal Nehru that might now sound strange to most Indians and Pakistanis. Ayub wanted Nehru to cooperate with him in dealing with the likely threat that a Communist China would pose to the reg­ion. Predictably, the proposal was rej­ected by a Nehru reluctant to gang up with a country close to the US at the height of the Cold War, against a fellow member of the Non-Aligned Movement.

The relatively unknown episode, however, gathers ironic salience in today’s context as strained Indo-Pakistan relations seem to have become one of the major impediments in realising India-China relations to its full potential.

Sections in India have been wary of China’s intentions since 1962, when the countries went to war over their disputed boundary. But a deeper sense of antagonism has emerged following successive moves by China to shelter Pakistan in international fora, especially when India is trying to isolate it for continuing to use terror as a tool of state policy.

China’s ‘technical hold’ in the UN move against Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azar, its reluctance to support India for a NSG membership and its success in scuttling attempts at naming Pakistan as a sponsor of terrorism in the recently concluded Goa BRICS document have evoked much public rancour in India.

Though calls to boycott Chinese goods and China-bashing remain part of prime-time TV talk shows, South Block mandarins don’t share the gloominess. Indian diplomats say that even without naming Pakistan, much of what has been put in the BRICS document against terrorism indicated that even the Chinese were having doubts about defending Pakistan.

“As long as we keep the issue limited to the threat posed by terrorism to development, we are hopeful of getting China’s cooperation,” says a senior MEA official. Indian policymakers assess that though China might not join in any move to name and shame Pakistan, it could cooperate with initiatives to curb terror. They say both countries realise that the complexity of their bilateral relations require clear-headed diplomatic engagement.

Though access to the Chinese market rem­­ains a stumbling block for Indian firms, both sides feel expansion of economic coo­peration could boost mutual trust.

India remains the biggest market for Chinese goods. Similarly, for PM Modi’s attempt to rejuvenate the economy by investing in infrastructure, China has to be a major player. From power generation and telecom to industrial parks and high-speed trains, India is an investment destination for Chinese companies.

The good vibes through commerce could also expand to other, difficult areas. For example, there are positive signs in the area of civil nuclear cooperation, which could even lead China to dilute its resistance to India’s entry in the NSG. Joint exercises are also scheduled for their navies.

At the Goa BRICS Summit, PM Modi and President Xi Jinping met for the ninth time since they first engaged at the Brazil Fotzela in 2014. There is no guarantee that such meetings would end with positive outco­mes. But regular engagement could well help balance out the strains in ties between the two neighbouring giants of Asia.