While military operations against the TTP in the Malakand division of the Frontier had limited impact on the ground situation, there is great expectation being generated by Islamabad’s spin doctors that an offensive against the Taliban-al Qaeda in South Waziristan would yield decisive gains. But even as this campaign is being drummed up, the momentum has shifted progressively to Pakistan’s heartland, Punjab, which is where the militancy is now dramatically augmenting. However, the escalation of violence in Punjab’s urban areas, including Rawalpindi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar, and the subversion elsewhere in the province, has not attracted significant state response. On the contrary, the government remains in denial as far as the rising terrorism in Punjab is concerned, and simply refuses to accept the reality of rising militancy in the province. The long-standing conviction that underpins the creation and support of terrorist groups as strategic assets appears to have survived the devastation of successive attacks and bombings in the heartland.
While the progressive collapse in the NWFP and FATA has been well documented, the centrifugal dynamic in Punjab and its emergence as a jihadi hub has largely been neglected. Deeper scrutiny reveals that the situation in Punjab is, in many ways, alarming and will have far reaching consequences in the immediate future for Pakistan. It is useful to note that there have been 152 terrorism-related incidents in Punjab just in 2009 (till October 18) inflicting 229 fatalities, including an overwhelming 118 civilians and 77 SF personnel. The fact that militant fatalities total just 34 in 2009 clearly indicates that the Taliban-al Qaeda network has secured the upper hand. It is also evident that militants have been able to shift the momentum of the conflict by bringing the battle to the urban heartland, including the national capital Islamabad, the garrison town Rawalpindi, and provincial capital Lahore.
Alarming for the government and the Army is the fact that renegade militant groups like the TTP are now collaborating with al-Qaeda linked groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), to mount a grave challenge to the state in Punjab. There are some indications, although clear evidence is yet to materialize from the recent terrorist attacks, that militants from Punjab are rallying around the TTP to worsen an already appalling situation for the government . "The militants want to destabilise the country and want the government to collapse," Ayesha Siddiqa, a security analyst, declares, "The government is in a state of denial... Al Qaeda and Taliban have been penetrating their influence in the Punjab and now it is high time for the government and our Forces to realise this danger." In addition, an official stated that, "the real threat of sophisticated militant attacks now comes from Punjab where militants have engaged the security forces in face-to-face fighting."
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t the other end, the series of attacks over the last three weeks demonstrates that military operations in Swat and elsewhere in the Malakand division of the NWFP, and the killing of TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud in a US missile attack in South Waziristan on August 5, 2009, have had little impact on the extremists. The audacious commando-style assaults at the GHQ and on Police targets in Rawalpindi and Lahore, accompanied by incessant attacks elsewhere, clearly demonstrate that the TTP retains the capacity to challenge the state on several fronts, despite momentary setbacks in the Frontier. Militant capacities, as noted in earlier SAIR assessments, have in fact remained more or less evidently intact across the country. Further, there are some preliminary indications that the TTP has overcome the initial squabbling and power struggle after Baitullah’s death and is now regrouping rather well. The new TTP chief, Hakeemullah Mehsud, earlier thought by Pakistani and US officials to have been killed in infighting, appeared before a small group of journalists at an unspecified location in South Waziristan on October 5, vowing to avenge the killing of his predecessor and to expedite attacks on US and Pakistani forces.