The General In His Labyrinth

What the global community, particularly the US considers 'terrorism' is considered 'jihad' by a powerful section of Pakistani society - a clique of the jihadis, and therightwing.9/11 shocked the world reinforcing the fact that terrorism is the biggest threat to global peace. It madeGeneral Musharraf change Pakistan's decades-old Afghan policy within no time. It made him ban some jihadioutfits including the high profiled Lashkar-e-Taiba [LeT] and Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM]on January 12, 2002.

To assure the world of Pakistan's commitment, on every foreign visit and from time to time at home, Musharrafrenews his pledge to fight terrorism. On July 1, 2004, chairing a high level meeting in Islamabad, he said:"South Waziristan has become headquarters of al-Qaeda... terrorists hiding there and their harbourerswill be dismantled."

The jihadis and the rightwing, however, are sending different but 'clear' signals. They are in no moodto understand the gravity of 9/11, interpreting it as a Jewish conspiracy against Islam - particularlyAfghanistan and Pakistan - and propagate this idea enthusiastically through the mosques' pulpits, publicstatements and the print and electronic media. 

Thus, an influential Islamic scholar Dr. Asar Ahmad wrote inthe popular Urdu daily Nawa-i-Waqt [May 26, 2004]: "The US wants to make greater Israel bysubjugating Iraq. The 9/11 investigations have been stopped because it was masterminded by Israel and the UScannot take any action against the Jews. The 9/11 was not bin Laden's brainchild but of the US, Israel and theJews. It was masterminded to provide the US an excuse to destroy Afghanistan. In fact, the US wants to makeAfghanistan another home for the Jews. It will facilitate Jews' settlement in Afghanistan."

While Musharraf corroborates that Pakistan has become al-Qaeda's headquarters, the top jihad-monger,Hafiz Mohammad Saeed [LeT's founder], challenges its existence outright: "The US has launched a smearingcampaign against jihad. It has coined a term 'al-Qaeda'. Through the western media, it propagates falsestories about al-Qaeda's fictitious activities against the western interests and maligns the Muslimworld," Saeed writes in the monthly Voice of Islam [June 2004].

In an interesting contrast, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, the hardliner Muttehida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) leader, hails al-Qaedafor its attempts on General Musharraf's life. In an interview with Weekly Ghazwa [June 2], Qazi said:"General Musharraf is a traitor. He used to be al-Qaeda' number one patron. But now he has cheated it atthe US behest. Therefore, al-Qaeda is right if it attacks him. It will take him on sooner rather than later.The mayhem in Karachi is a reaction to Musharraf's policies against al-Qaeda in South Waziristan."

These and other proclamations lead to a dangerous conclusion: the jihadis / rightwing have their ownagenda, and this confronts Musharraf's agenda - if he is committed to eliminating terrorism, the jihadis arecommitted to eliminating him. Three attempts on his life speak loudly of the jihadis' commitment, andthe June 10 attack on the Karachi Corps Commander underscores this reality.

Musharraf's biggest mistake was his poor judgment about the consequences of 9/11. As renowned columnist AyazAmir puts it: "It was the US stick that condemned Musharraf to change our Afghan policy. It should havebeen our own decision. After the 9/11, there was no room for our jihad policy in Kashmir. Musharrafthought by taking a u-turn on the Afghan policy, he would save the Kashmir policy. But Armitage's stick madeus change that too. "

Musharraf's early post 9/11 policies did not prove his sincerity about fighting terrorism. He thought he wouldbe able to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. His January 12 ban on LeT and JeM was the mostfarcical, and failed to impress both the international community and analysts at home. The ban itself was theoutcome of a mutual agreement between the jihadi outfits and the Musharraf regime. 

The founders of LeTand JeM - Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar respectively - had been informed in advance about the ban. LeT and JeMsimply registered themselves under new names - Jamaat-ud-Dawa [JD] and Khuddam-ul-Islam, respectively -occupying the same infrastructure. The office-bearers of the two outfits kept the same portfolios. Both thegroups continued to crank out the same jihadi publications that glorified jihad and spit venomagainst India and the Hindus.

Unsurprisingly, jihad continued to spread like poison ivy, despite the Musharraf ban. My report [TheFriday Times: July 31, 2003] showed that between January-June 2003, the jihad-mongersrecruited more than 7,000 young boys, aged between 18 and 25, from various places in Pakistan. LeT and JeMrecruited more than 3,350 and 2,235 boys respectively.

On April 2, 2003, Hafiz Saeed addressed a huge rally in Islamabad and openly solicited funds for jihad,displaying banners that invited youth to join the LeT for jihad training. Those days, Islamabad hadimposed a ban on public assemblies, but Saeed was permitted to hold the rally.

In October 2002, Musharraf made another mistake that has now become a 'headache' for him. To oust the twomainstream political parties - Pakistan Muslim League [PML] of Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party [PPP]of Benazir Bhutto - he permitted the 'godfathers' of the Taliban to contest the elections under the banner ofthe MMA - an alliance of six pro-Taliban religious parties. Musharraf also accredited the madrassa (seminary)degrees as equivalent to the BA degree, the minimum qualification he had set for candidates to contest theGeneral Elections. Even as mainstream political leaders were kept away from the election, illiterate clericswere facilitated in their entry to Parliament.

The MMA is now dead set against Musharraf's agenda of the 'war against terror' and labels him and some of hiskey cabinet members as 'US agents'. These include Shaukat Aziz [the future Prime Minister] and Zobaida Jalal[the Education Minister who is working on curriculum reform]. Of late, Musharraf has started labeling the MMAleaders as 'extremists', 'illiterate', and 'fanatics'.

Three attempts on his life, including two suicide attacks; the attack on Karachi Corps Commander convoy; thekilling of 75 soldiers in the South Wazirstan by a handful of al-Qaeda terrorists; MMA's mounting oppositionto the on-going military operation in South Waziristan and the deteriorating law and order situation in thecountry, seem to have transformed Musharraf's strategy to fight terrorism.

Earlier, analysts had remained skeptical of his resolve to fight terrorism. This perception seems to bediluting now. Ayaz Amir notes, "Two attempts on his life have made him serious about his resolve to fightjihadis. Now the jihadis and the state are not at the same wavelength. The direction of thestate has changed. Pakistan cannot wage a war against jihadis. Army has nurtured them for the last 20years. A 'Hafiz-ul-Asad' type crackdown is not going to work, neither is it needed...'

Taking a leaf out of the British empire's book, Musharraf has resorted to the 'divide-and-rule' stratagem toweaken the jihadis. Knowing that Hafiz Saeed had become strong enough to defy him, Musharraf hassuccessfully orchestrated a split in the JD, just as he had earlier done with PML and PPP. Thelarger-than-life Saeed has now been made a midget. Dr. Zafar Iqbal - the co-founder of LeT - will be the newchief of the JD faction that is now called Khair-un-Naas (KN), which means 'public welfare'. The calculationis that his moderate views would help promote Musharraf's agenda.

After the jihadis, the MMA is the biggest hindrance to Musharraf's agenda. The MMA wants Musharraf tostop military operations in South Waziristan; shed his uniform by the year end; drop curriculum reforms andchanges in hudood and blasphemy laws, etc. In other words, it is asking Musharraf to push the countryback into the pre-9/11 period. It is now an open secret that Musharraf has made up his mind to deal with theMMA in a decisive manner.

In the coming days, the MMA governments will be dissolved, and that is why the MMA has once again revived shariatissue in the NWFP. It has barred government officials from attending dance/music parties. It has vowed toforce people to prayers with the stick - a system very common in Saudia Arabia. MMA plans to link the imminentdissolution of its government to Islam and shariat in order to win the people's sympathies and malignMusharraf as a 'US stooge'.

If Musharraf is successful in dealing with the MMA, it will be easier for him to continue as both thePresident and Army Chief for an indefinite period. "There will be no reaction within the Army if he doesnot shed his uniform. Was there any reaction when Hosni Mubarik continued in his office for 20 years? Wasthere any reaction when Suharto refused to step down?" argues Ayaz Amir. "...But this is not thesolution. Army is part of the problem in Pakistan. The solution lies in doing three things: one, you have tomake the society more democratic; two, you have to stop becoming the satellite of the US; three, you have tostop supporting the mullahs. By becoming the US satellite, the country is just strengthening the jihadisand the rightwing that thrives on its anti-US philosophy. The country is thus neither going to democracynor is getting rid of the US."

Pakistan will have to wait and see whether Musharraf's new strategy delivers or boomerangs. But one thing iscertain - Pakistan's history proves that it has always been pushed into crisis whenever a military dictatorruled it. General Ayub's martial law resulted in the disintegration of Pakistan and the creation ofBangladesh; General Zia's martial law radicalized the moderate Pakistani society and promoted the jihadi culture.It remains to be seen what legacy General Musharraf leaves behind. But the words of an American diplomat aresignificant in this context: "If Musharraf could really cleanse Pakistan of the jihadi culture, hecould go into the annals of Pakistan history as a leader greater than Jinnah!"

Mohammad Shehzad is an Islamabad-based freelance journalist and writer. Courtesy,the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal