The General's Labyrinth

Washington: The decision by Pakistan's Supreme Court to reinstate ChiefJustice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry will weaken President Pervez Musharraf andcomplicate his election strategy, according to some analysts. Others say it mayactually strengthen the general by taking the lawyer unrest off his plate andallowing him to focus on a role he's best suited to play – that of an Army mangoing after terrorists.

What started off as a bad week for Gen. Musharraf turned progressively worse.First, Washington tore his peace plan with tribes along the Afghan border tobits, blaming it for allowing al Qaeda and the Taliban breathing space toregroup. Then came the Supreme Court decision, voiding Gen. Musharraf's decisionto suspend Justice Chaudhury in March.

Husain Haqqani, director of the Center for International Relations at BostonUniversity, says the ruling demonstrates the unwillingness of Pakistan'scivilians to endlessly obey the military's commands. He believes Gen. Musharrafnow has two options: "He either recognizes the reality and moves towardsreconciliation with civilians or continues with his concept of 'unifiedcommand', which would only plunge Pakistan deeper into crisis."

Ambassador Teresita Schaffer at the Center for Strategic and InternationalStudies in Washington points out that the ruling "dramaticallycomplicates" Gen. Musharraf's election strategy. For Gen. Musharraf toremain in uniform the National Assembly will be required to extend the currentwaiver of Pakistan's constitutional ban on those "holding an office forprofit for the state of Pakistan" from running for election. "Thatlegislation will be challenged in the courts," Ms. Schaffer says,predicting the courts are likely to strike down the legislation.

Not everyone agrees Gen. Musharraf has come out a loser in his standoff withthe judiciary. In fact, says Marvin Weinbaum of the Middle East Institute, theruling will boost the general. Had the court ruled in his favour, it would haveenergized the opposition, Mr. Weinbaum said. "With this crisis behind him,Gen. Musharraf can now take a clear shot at the extremists. The army's honourhas been challenged [by the Lal Masjid crisis] and he will focus his attentionon the militants."

Mr. Haqqani admits Gen. Musharraf could focus on the militant problem and seethe court judgement as a blessing in disguise because it ends a crisis of hisown making. "But that is not Musharraf's personality. He suffers from amessiah complex, believes the army alone has the right to run Pakistan and isvery self-righteous," he says. "He will read this judgement as a snuband will most likely get into further confrontations with the judiciary as wellas other elements of Pakistan's civilian society."

Lisa Curtis at the Heritage Foundation agrees the reinstatement of the chiefjustice removes an immediate source of protest among the civil society andpolitical parties. However, she says, the political situation remains extremelyfragile, and respite from the protests may not last long, particularly if Gen.Musharraf tries to move forward with his original plan of getting himselfre-elected by the sitting five-year-old parliament and refuses to remove hisuniform by the end of the year.

"He has lost a great deal of credibility with the Pakistani public overthe judicial crisis and although there seems to be general support for hisdecision to confront the extremists at the Red Mosque, it is unclear whetherthat has translated into a boost to his overall popularity," she says,adding, "The problem, however, is that the political parties need tounderstand that the Red Mosque confrontation appears to be the beginning of ashowdown between al Qaeda backed extremists and the Pakistani state. No oneshould be naive to the fact that the extremists are trying to exploit thepolitical uncertainty in the country."

Pointing out that over 180 Pakistani civilians and military personnel havebeen killed in attacks in the past week which seem aimed at provoking chaos andweakening the Pakistani state, Ms. Curtis said, "If there was ever a timethat the mainstream secular parties and the military actually needed to worktogether for the sake of stability in Pakistan, now would be it."

The developments are unlikely to shake support from Washington for Gen.Musharraf, a trusted ally who signed up for the war on terror after theSeptember 11 attacks on America.

At the State Department, spokesman Tom Caseysaid the court's ruling was a "positive resolution" of the situation."It was a decision that -- not insignificantly -- was not the position thatthe president had taken, but that nonetheless the president and his governmentshowed respect for that institution, and for the rule of law by saying theyaccepted it," he said, adding Gen. Musharraf was a useful ally.

Mr. Haqqani suggests Washington rethink this alliance with Pakistan."The United States has to recognize that the strongman they have beensupporting so far is not as strong now as he was earlier but there are novisible signs of a substantive change in U.S. policy at the moment."

"Sooner or later, however, U.S. policy makers will have to face thereality that there is more to Pakistan than Musharraf and once that realizationreaches the higher echelons of decision-making in Washington, the U.S. willstart reaching out to other major political players in Pakistan," he added.

Ms. Curtis contended Washington policymakers are concerned about what mightfollow Gen. Musharraf, "but they haven't had their heads in the sand overthe last four months either and they realize that Musharraf's popularity hasdeclined over the judicial issue."

From Washington's perspective, the best scenario probably involves Gen.Musharraf remaining at the helm for a limited period of time in which he leads acrack down on the extremists as well as spearheads a smooth transition todemocracy. "But the situation is highly unstable at the moment, andWashington is adopting an extremely cautious position," Ms. Curtis said.