Realpolitik Over Idealism

The US-brokered peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reflects the changing power dynamics across the Gulf states and the larger Muslim world. Israel, America’s closest ally in the region, has long stopped being regarded as the number one enemy of the Muslim world. More so to Washington’s friends, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The change did not happen overnight as the two sides have been talking beh­ind closed doors for a year at least. Nor is UAE the first Muslim country to recognise Israel and have full diplomatic ties with that country. Egypt had done it in 1979, followed by Jordan in 1994. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat enr­aged Islamists and was assassinated for his peace deal with Israel. But the world has changed dramatically since then.

The UAE-Israel deal has more to do with concerns over Iran’s growing clout than a concern for Palestine. Saudi Arabia and UAE see Iran as more of a  threat than Israel. The Palestinian issue is merely a fig leaf. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, the pointsman for the peace process, nudged UAE to take the final step. For Trump, it is essential to get a foreign policy success ahead of the November elections.

How this will help to bring lasting peace between Israel and the Palest­inians is not known. However, UAE and the US sold the deal on the basis of a commitment made by PM Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel will stop fresh settlements in the West Bank. With much of Palestinian land already in possession of Israeli settlers, there is little for Palestinians in the new deal. They have already rejected it.

Netanyahu has not made any comment about a halt to West Bank settlements. This is possibly not to embarrass Trump, who has projected the agreement as a win-win situation for all.  However, David Freidman, the US envoy to Tel Aviv, was quoted as clarifying that the word “suspend” refers to a “temporary halt” to expansion. The door is open for going back on the promise.  Kushner has hinted that Saudi Arabia will follow UAE’s lead sooner rather than later.

That may well be true. “The Arab world is deeply divided over this. There is a div­ide between the rulers and the general masses who have always supported the Palestinian cause. Saudi Arabia will not be in a hurry to follow UAE, despite what Kushner may claim,” said Zikr-ur-Rahman, a former diplomat.

The Palestinian cause, which the Gulf Arab rulers once vociferously supported, had been abandoned in the interests of pragmatic geopolitics. But across mosques and bazaars  of the region, support for Palestine remains. But the royals—both in  Saudi Arabia and the UAE—see Iran as an existential threat bent on regional hegemony.  Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the successive ayatollahs ruling the country had a massive influence on the Shia population of the region. Through them, Iran became a major player in the region. Whether in Iraq, Syria, Yemen or through the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian footprints have expanded remarkably.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s interests in cutting Iran down to size and ensuring that it never goes nuc­lear coincides with that of Israel’s. These three countries were the severest critics of the nuclear deal signed bet­ween Iran, the P5 (US, Russia, China, UK and France) and Germany. President Trump’s decision to walk out of the pact was enthusiastically welcomed by both Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Kushner and Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman and crown prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed want to reshape West Asia to serve their interests. The US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is now ranged against Iran and Tehran’s friends. These include Russia, which pulls far above its weight and has played a pivotal role in Syria and the fight against the Islamic State. China is a recent entry and so too is Turkey, once firmly in the Western camp but now veering towards the anti-US platform offered by Russia and China. Iran naturally gravitates towards them.

For South Asian rivals, Pakistan and India, the Gulf is where many of their citizens work and send back remittances. Religion had in the past been a major factor in Pakistan’s ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the rest of  the Gulf Cooperation Council members. While India had traditional ties with the Gulf Arab states, New Delhi could not rely on them in a crisis. Whether it was Kashmir or the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992 and the riots which followed, the Gulf countries backed Pakistan. Indeed, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation regularly passed anti-India resolutions, which were all introduced by Pakistan. That has changed now.

India’s ties with the Gulf countries have improved tremendously. Much of it is thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But both Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh played important roles. In 2019, UAE’s highest civilian hon­­our, the Order of Zayed, was given to Modi for furthering India-UAE ties.

The day after the agreement with Israel was signed, the UAE foreign minister was on the phone with his Indian counterpart to brief him on the details. India had wholeheartedly welcomed the deal, saying both Israel and the UAE were its strategic partners. At the same time, New Delhi said it continued to support a final settlement of the Palestinian issue on the basis of the two-state solution.

Islamabad had to do a tightrope over the Israel-UAE peace agreement. Demonstrations were reported from several cities and towns of Pakistan condemning the betrayal of the Pale­stinians. It is an enduringly emotive issue in Pakistan that the government just cannot ignore. The worry in Pakistan is linked to Kashmir. Fahd Humayun, a columnist writing in Dawn noted: “If Israel is embraced by the Muslim world without a just resolution to the Palestine question, the Kashmir cause will also suffer, as India will be further emboldened to crush the Kashmiris.”

Pakistan’s single-minded effort to get the Muslim world on board on Kash­mir received a setback with Saudi Arabia dragging its feet over calling a special meeting of the OIC foreign ministers to discuss the issue. While Turkey and Malaysia have criticised India, Saudi Arabia and UAE have been circumspect. Turkish President Recep Erdogan is challenging Saudi Arabia in a bid to emerge as the voice of political Islam.

A frustrated Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s foreign minister, vented his anger at Saudi Arabia. He said he would ask Prime Minister Imran Khan to convene a meeting to highlight “Indian atrocities” in Kashmir. Saudi Arabia was not amused. Riyadh sho­wed its displeasure by asking Pakistan to return a $1 billion pending loan. Saudi Arabia had been generous in funding Pakistan in the past. Riyadh was clearly sending a message.

Army chief General Qamar Jawed Bajwa rushed to Saudi Arabia on a damage-control mission and met with deputy defence minister, a younger brother of the Saudi crown prince.

Paradoxically, it is not the Islamic Arab nations but Communist China which has backed Pakistan to the hilt on Kashmir for strategic considerations. During a quick visit to China, Qureshi was able to get a joint statement highlighting Kashmir after talks in Beijing.