Perils Of Punditry

In 1981, when I was editing The Sunday Observer from Mumbai, and professionally speaking wet behind the ears, I burnt most of my editorial budget printing election polls—with decidedly mixed results. We got some right and some wrong in almost equal proportion. The biggest boo-boo I’ve committed, thanks to opinion polls, was to predict the defeat of Mr Narendra Modi in the 2002 election held just after the Gujarat riots. Friends and foes still remind me of that blunder, and maybe my tombstone will say: "Here lies the journalist who predicted N. Modi will lose in 2002." Mr Modi has not forgiven me or Outlook since, although we try (and, believe me, we try) very hard to be fair to him.

I am some sort of a dodgy pundit myself. Accordingly, I have been requested to enlighten the voter on which way the electoral wind is blowing. Since I am not the sort of chap who says, "I don’t have a clue," I muddle through, ensuring, of course, that my backside is covered. The truth is that in Election 2009 there is no wind blowing, no overarching issue, no compelling choice in respect of parties or leaders, no visible enthusiasm among those who will decide the fate of Sonia Gandhi, L.K. Advani, Prakash Karat, Jayalalitha..., no great expectations from the eventual winner. If I were to repeat such thoughts on prime time, the TV channel would instantly sack me as a pundit.

What I can predict is that we will have a nasty, below-the-belt campaign with much name-calling on all sides. Naturally, each party will claim the other party started it, and then raise the bad taste bar. The single redeeming element in this unedifying dance of democracy is the maturity and the inherent good sense of the Indian voter. Happily, at this juncture no pundit or politician or psephologist knows what he is thinking.