The pundits among us, of course, have carefully examined the opinion polls, allowed for last minute trends, weighed the impact of the Sonia factor in the southern vote, talked to colleagues about the likely impact of the RJD and the RJP, and taken full account of differential voter turnout. But let's not kid ourselves. The sweepstake is no more a test of political insight than a "Guess the Cake's Weight" contest at a church fete. For those of us who like to regard ourselves as initiates in the bruising and confusing world of Indian party politics, the office's '96 election sweepstake was a rude shock from which some have yet to recover. The spot-on winner was an Aussie videotape editor who cheerfully conceded that he couldn't tell a kamal from a chakra, or a haath from a hathi. His winning forecast was, he happily admitted, a blind guess. So much for the experts!