Exit polls until Friday predicted a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP with most pollsters giving an edge to the Congress
All eyes will be on Karnataka on May 13 for what it might predict about the Lok Sabha elections early next year in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi will seek to extend his prime ministership into a second decade. In Karnataka, his Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, is trying to hold on to its gateway to the south, where its Hindu nationalist politics have found much slower reception among people.
While the BJP was in power in the state, it pushed its experiment of ‘hardline Hindutva’ through a host of issues. From inventing two Vokkaliga characters—Uri Gowda and Nanje Gowda—who they claim, without any evidence, killed the Mysuru ruler Tipu Sultan in 1799, stopping the sale of meat slaughtered as per Islamic norms, azaan restrictions and, most controversially, preventing Muslim girls who wear hijab from attending schools and colleges.
The party then tried to make inroads into regions that have traditionally not supported them as well, including the Old Mysore region, with its dominant Vokkaliga community, and a strong bastion of the Janata Dal Secular and Congress. The Bommai-led BJP government led this by scrapping the 4 percent reservation for Muslims and distributing it between Vokkaligas and Lingayats (the other politically dominated community in the state) just ahead of the elections.
While justifying the state government’s decision, Amit Shah said Muslims had been given reservation as part of the appeasement politics of the Opposition and called it unconstitutional. The polarising narrative did not resonate with Lingayats and Vokkaligas alike.
In fact, Hindutva seems to have had less reception with Kannadigas and the BJP’s attempt to override the state’s history of caste-based politics seems to have failed. Hence, having reached a saturation point of using religious divisions to seek votes, speeches by political leaders in the months leading up to the elections barely had any mention of these issues.
Meanwhile, a further dent was caused to the BJP by the exit of key Lingayat leaders including former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar and former Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi from the party right ahead of the elections. Shettar earlier represented the Hubli-Dharwad Central constituency which accounts for around 20% Lingayat population – a community which has continued to serve as a promising vote bank for the saffron party.
Laxman Savadi too has been a force to rely on after he was awarded the post of Deputy Chief Minister for his role in the collapse of the Congress-Janata Dal Secular coalition government in 2019 which paved the way for BJP to come to power in the state. Both the leaders are now contesting from the Congress.
The exodus first began with former chief minister B S Yediyurappa who decided to quit electoral politics. Following that, other key Lingayat faces of the party too have announced their resignation, contributing to the disgruntlement within the BJP.
A slight trickle back to Hindutva politics was observed during the last leg of the campaigning when Modi led a 26-km election-eve road show in Bengaluru in what supporters called a display of strength while critics termed it as an act of desperation. In a last ditch effort, Modi invoked 'The Kerala Story' that hit screens across India this week, to speak explicitly about the threat of Islamisation through the party's frequently raked up theme of "Love Jihad".
However, exit polls until Friday predicted a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP with most pollsters giving an edge to the Congress. While the BJP depends on a complex mix of welfare, caste and communal rhetoric to seek votes in other states like Uttar Pradesh, its prospects look weak in Karnataka given its hard Hindutva push has failed to land with the voters.