An Alliance Of Reluctance

A Congress-Samajwadi alliance in India’s most populous state is almost ready in theory. Irrespective of what pans out in the ongoing controversy within the Samajwadi Party (SP), Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav looks all set to hitch his chan­ces in the forthcoming assembly polls with that of India’s grand old party. The move is part of efforts to stitch together a reasonably strong electoral front to thwart the BJP’s ambitions in the state.

It is learnt that joint rallies with Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi or Akhilesh and Priyanka Vadra could be on the cards, with the CM’s wife and MP Dimple Yadav also roped in. Many Congress leaders hope the alliance would continue in the 2019 general election as well.

Before Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi went on his year-ender vacation, say party insiders, 20-odd legislators from UP met him around December 22 to ­convey the urgency of taking a call on all­ying with the SP. Pending that decision, the party was losing precious canvassing time and leaving the cadre a mite confused. The top Congress leadership, though, thought it best to hold their horses until the dust settled on the ‘family feud’ in the SP, even though there is a personal equation between Akhilesh and Rahul, who, in turn, is on the same page on the matter with his sister Priyanka. Meanwhile, party general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad too has been keeping a close watch on developments in the state.

The Congress had initially demanded 72 of the 403 seats and it is learnt SP ­national president Mulayam Singh Yadav and state president Shivpal Yadav had no objection. Akhilesh, however, was opp­osed to the idea as it would have projected the SP as a party that had accepted it could not make it on its own strength. Such a message just five months before the election, he felt, would have been damaging for its prospects. Then Congress ‘Chanakya’ PK (Prashant Kishor) met Mulayam Singh in Delhi, and the SP chief reportedly asked him to meet his son. That PK managed to convince Akhilesh to change his mind is evident from the CM’s statement that the SP would win a majority and, if the Congress joined hands with it, the alliance would get 300 seats. Insiders say the Congress may eventually contest from 90 seats.

Only the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have the capacity to stop the BJP from coming to power in the state, observers point out. Since Mayawati is not keen on a pre-poll alliance, the SP is the only opt­ion for the Congress for the forthcoming election and, possibly, even for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress, in any case, has little to lose in an alliance; of the 355 seats the party had contested in 2012, it won only 28.

At Akhilesh’s end, right on top of his short-term agenda, say observers, is to keep the 18 per cent Muslim votes from drifting away to the BSP, which has already ­ann­ounced 97 Muslim candidates. The long-term ambition is to carve a space for his party at the Centre in 2019 in case the BJP is voted out.

Negotiations were also on, say sources, for an alliance with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). However, the RLD INS­isted on deputy chief ministership and key ministerial berths. Also, the SP was willing to concede no more than 25 seats to the RLD, which would settle for nothing less than 40. The Congress was also wary of the potential gains to the BJP from the communal polarisation that could follow in the wake of the RLD fielding Muslim candidates in western UP.

The Congress’s attention, therefore, is fixed on the SP, now saddled with the ‘rift’ in the Yadav family that many believe to have unfolded on scripted lines. Father and son never disowned each other and have been balancing their ego, anger and mutual affection quite well. There are also whispers in SP circles that the feud was deliberately prolonged to stop Asaduddin Owaisi of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which has ­substantial influence over Muslims in the state, from holding meetings and eroding the SP’s Muslim vote base. According to political analyst Sudhir Panwar, in the eyes of the youth, Akhilesh has emerged stronger from the feud. “The fight over inheritance has been transformed into a fight for Akhilesh’s principles of clean politics. The message that Akhilesh is fighting for clean politics has gone out to the young generation and other voters,” says Panwar.

The Congress, on the other hand, is in a shambles in the state. Beyond Lucknow, Rae Bareli and Amethi, hardly anyone talks about the Congress or Rahul Gandhi. The alliance with the SP, then, could just help it salvage its chances at the polls. And yet the state unit is against an alliance, barring odd MLAs. Following PK’s meeting with Mulayam and, subsequently, Akhilesh, Congress cadre have become disinterested in party activities, say observers. The phase of indecision and lack of communication with the cadre has come to this pass. Some loyalists have even started moving out of the party—for instance, Dhirendra Singh from Gautam Budh Nagar recently quit the Congress and joined the BJP. Singh, who was with the party for the past three decades and was a spokesperson when he quit, had worked hard to mobilise farmers during the agitation against the land acquisition bill. Observers say even Priyanka had appreciated his work. Disappointed with the party now, he tells Outlook, “The prevailing confusion in the party, lack of passion and interest in working on the ground, and ill-treatment of local leaders completely eroded my ­attachment with the party.”

UP had once been a Congress bastion, but now it is a state where its leaders know the party cannot win elections on it own. No wonder the tie-up is being seen in many quarters as a desperate measure to keep afloat its chances of staying even remotely relevant. In 2007 as well as 2012, the Congress and the SP couldn’t agree on seat-sharing because the offers were too small for the grand old party. “No point in having such a pride when the party is so weak,” says a Gandhi family loyalist, who wanted to remain anonymous. “UP is our bastion, but do we have winning candidates and a winning strategy?” They have not had a proper strategy blueprint since PK was sidelined following his meeting with Mulayam and Akhilesh—an ironic fact since his plan seems close to fruition.

“We don’t have an option but to look positively towards an alliance,” says a senior Congress leader. For those in ­favour of alliance, it doesn’t matter that Akhilesh was known as the half in the “four-and-a-half” chief ministers (the others being Mulayam, Shivpal Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav and Azam Khan) who ran the state. For them, it is a matter of survival in the political race. “The Congress is a small party now. That’s the reality, especially in UP,” says another party loyalist. After PK took charge, the party’s prospects seemed to be looking up—it was beginning to pop up in people’s conversations again, after the trouncing of 2014. This did not last, though, with PK shunted out two months ago. “Now, we are back to square one. The only option is to hang on to some other party,” says the loyalist.

Many in the Congress feel that Akhilesh now controls the party, funds, accounts, offices, district presidents, the youth and the Yadavs. This could make for a perfect match of the two parties led by Rahul and Akhilesh. Some leaders, in fact, visualise even Ajit Singh’s son Jayant Chaudhary joining the duo. “It is necessary to bring them together, else the Congress won’t get any votes except those of the cadre. Moreover, this is set to be a personality-­centric election,” says an insider.

Several Congress leaders have faith in Akhilesh as a face even if the Election Commission of India decides to freeze the SP’s bicycle election symbol. “Even if Modi didn’t have the lotus symbol in 2014, he would still have won the election. Even without the bicycle, Akhilesh’s face is enough to stall Modi,” says a leader. If Akhilesh manages to pull through this election, will the Congress play second fiddle? And if Akhilesh loses, will the Congress dump the young leader?