If Bengal votes in terms of a referendum on the TMC-led West Bengal government, then a chunk of the Left-Congress votes, except in Maldaha, Murshidabad and N.Dinajpur districts, are likely to swing towards BJP which would trouble the TMC in the several seats in South Bengal. Narendra Modi in a recent rally in Bengal made an open claim that 40 TMC MLAs are in touch with BJP. It is a likelihood that disgruntled TMC leaders, workers and supporters, while sporting the green jersey may opt for saffron in the EVM. Significantly some prominent TMC MLAs and leaders, rumoured to join BJP, have barely made any effort to canvass for the nominated candidates in the Lok Sabha election. This undercurrent of passive attitude of the ruling class and subsequent change was also observed in the elections of 2008, 2009 and 2011, towards the end of Left regime. A similar trajectory, if initiated and repeated, would turn the tide in BJP’s favour in the Lok Sabha election and could pose a major challenge to TMC in the 2021 assembly poll. While party organization is an important mechanism in Bengal politics, time and again, going back to the 1977 assembly election in which the Left Front won, popular mandate has defied the organizational strengths. Therefore, if these factors come together and function in tandem, BJP’s tally would be much closer to Amit Shah’s target of 23, therefore emulating a Tripura-like result in Bengal. The wait is till 23 May 2019.