With the publication of the Bihar Caste Survey findings and the INDIA coalition’s endorsement of a nationwide caste census, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stands cornered ahead of the 2024 general elections as the space for its primary tools of nationalism and Hindutva shrinks.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in a fix as while it opposes a nationwide caste census, it is standing with the Bihar Caste Survey findings and the proposal to increase reservation for the backward communities in the state. The BJP has also emphasised that the decision to go ahead with the caste survey was taken when it was part of the Nitish Kumar-led government in the state.
The BJP does not appear to have any good options at the moment. As it is a fact that the Bihar Caste Survey was greenlit when it was part of Nitish’s government, the party could not dismiss its findings now. Moreover, the hike in reservations would also benefit non-Yadav backward communities that the BJP has focused on for years.
As the BJP sees space shrinking for its primary tools of nationalism and Hindutva, it is resorting to a mixture of tactics to counter the INDIA coalition’s push for caste census. While it is trying to repeat the old tactic of wooing non-dominant backward communities —the marginalised among the marginalised— it is also trying to delegitimise the idea of caste census itself. Such delegitimisation has been attempted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah themselves, suggesting the primacy that the saffron party attaches to countering the Opposition’s messaging regarding the issue of caste.
Just four months later, India would be voting in national elections. The five assembly elections going on at the moment —including in the populous states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh— are expected to set the tone for the 2024 general elections. The push (and resistance) of political rivals on caste has never been more important since the time of Mandal politics.
“The BJP’s only option is religious polarisation. Whenever religious polarisation takes place, the caste consolidation and politics of social justice movement-based parties get affected. So, that’s the only option with the BJP as the other option of wooing ‘non-dominant’ backward communities has already been tried by the BJP since 2014. They have already approached non-Jatav Dalits and non-Yadav other backward classes (OBCs) in all the elections since 2014,” says Kaviraj, a Lucknow-based political observer.
Kaviraj further highlights that, even though the Opposition parties have not pushed back against Shah and Modi’s criticism of the caste census, it’s not hard. For one, when Shah said the numbers of Yadavs and Muslims have been inflated in the Bihar Caste Survey, the Opposition had to just highlight that the BJP has no way of saying that as, in the absence of any caste survey or caste census, there exists no data for the basis of such a claim, says Kaviraj.
“Surprisingly, the Opposition has not criticised Amit Shah’s comment. They have not been able to defend their own position against the BJP’s claims that have no factual basis,” says Kaviraj, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Lucknow.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to have a two-pronged approach to counter the INDIA coalition’s push for caste census: One, defend the survey and resultant hike in quota in Bihar, and, two, delegitimise the nationwide caste census.
While Congress scion Rahul Gandhi has made caste census a top priority of his party’s agenda and Nitish Kumar has already set the ball rolling, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has termed it as a tool to divide the Hindus — invoking religion over caste. He has also directly challenged Rahul’s “jitni aabaadi utna haq (rights as per one’s population)” slogan, particularly in the South where a smaller population than the North often invokes anxiety.
At a rally in Chhattisgarh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that if we were to have rights and representation as per population then the Hindus would have more rights and representation as they are in the majority. Modi then asked the attendees whether the Congress wanted to reduce the rights of the minorities by invoking the population.
Modi said, “Since yesterday, the Congress started creating a narrative. They say, ‘Jitni Abadi Utna Haq’. I say that if there is any largest population in the country, it’s of the poor and hence for me the poor are the biggest population, and the welfare of the poor is my aim.
“What would the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh be thinking? Former Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh used to say that the minorities have the first right on the resources of the country and that too the Muslims, but now the Congress is saying that the population will decide who will have the first right. Does Congress now want to reduce the rights of the minorities?...For me, the poor in this country are the biggest caste. If the poor are looked after well, the country will automatically be well.”
In election-bound Telangana, Modi invoked the North-South population divide to counter the Opposition’s push for representation as per population.
“The southern states have achieved remarkable progress in population control, but will stand to lose heavily if the Congress’s new idea of rights in proportion to population is implemented…South India stands to lose 100 Lok Sabha seats [in next delimitation as per Congress plan]… Will South India accept this? Will South India forgive the Congress? I want to tell Congress leaders not to fool the nation. Make it clear why they are playing this game,” said Modi.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is pushing a counter-narrative on the issue of OBCs. This depends on the representation of OBCs within the party —PM Narendra Modi comes from an OBC caste— and its tried and tested ‘labhaarthi (beneficiary)’ tactic where beneficiaries of various schemes are effectively seen as voters. This has worked in UP specifically where, in the run-up to the 2022 assembly elections, ‘namak’ became a slogan in reference to the ration distribution scheme of the BJP government during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic and accompanying economic disruption.
The BJP is also pushing for a non-Yadav coalition of OBC voters by highlighting that ‘dominant’ OBC castes and their political backers —Nitish Kumar, Akhilesh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav— have dominated the OBC space and have prevented the upliftment of the extremely backward castes (EBCs). For this purpose, the BJP has already tried to woo smaller OBC castes, such as the Patels (through Apna Dal-Sonelal) and Rajbhars (through Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party) in UP. The BJP has also had a degree of hold among the Jats in West UP and elsewhere despite farm protests.
The BJP has also hailed the representation of OBCs within the party and the government. Party chief JP Nadda has said 29 per cent of its MPs are from the OBCs and the percentage of MLAs across the country is 27. There are also at least 27 Union ministers from amongst the OBCs.
There has also been a report saying that the BJP is also planning an OBC survey of its own. In the November 1 meeting of the BJP Central Election Committee —comprising top leaders Modi, Rajnath Singh, Shah, and Nadda— it was decided that the party would announce its own OBC survey to blunt the effect of the INDIA coalition’s OBC push, reported Hindustan Times.
The report says that the BJP’s parallel push for an OBC survey is part of a strategy to weave a coalition of forward castes, less-dominant backward castes, and sections of Dalits and tribals. The forward castes have already been taken care of in the BJP’s calculations with a 10 per cent Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) quota.
Separately, the BJP has already announced that it would appoint an OBC leader as the Chief Minister of Telangana if it wins the elections. The OBCs are understood to be around 70 per cent of the state’s population.
For the first time since 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been in a reactive mode for the past few months instead of setting the pitch. There are two reasons for this: one, the coming together of 26 Opposition parties under the INDIA umbrella, and, two, the push for caste census.
For a party that has relied consistently on the division among the ranks of the Opposition, the idea of the convergence of non-party voters has upended the game. Secondly, the push for the caste deals with the BJP’s main planks of nationalism and Hindutva.
The BJP’s display of its OBC MPs, MLAs, and ministers may not work as the real game is not about political representation but about quotas for jobs, says Kaviraj.
“The result of the Bihar Caste Survey findings was not an increase in the number of tickets to OBCs or a push for an OBC quota in Lok Sabha. It was a push for more reservation for jobs for OBCs. The proposed national caste census or surveys at the state levels are actually OBC surveys. Now that Bihar has increased the quota for OBCs, every state would want to do it. There is nothing to stop it as the Supreme Court’s cap of 50 per cent has already been breached with the EWS quota and the SC’s condition that reservation needs to be based on scientific data also stands fulfilled as Bihar has data and other states set to do their own surveys would also furnish data,” says Kaviraj, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Lucknow.
Kaviraj says that the BJP does not have any new medium to counter the Opposition’s push for the caste census. The push for ‘non-dominant’ and non-Jatav Dalits has already been attempted since 2014. Moreover, Nitish and others can also increase the number of tickets to Extremely Backwards Castes (EBCs) to counter the BJP's EBC push.