The Bharatiya Janata Paty (BJP) has emerged as the single largest party in the Karnataka elections. According to the latest updates on the counting of votes, the party is still needs a handful of seats to cross the magic mark of 112. The Congress has won a higher share of votes but the BJP’s organisational capabilities and election micro management has carried the day for the party.
What does it mean for the BJP?
· This creates a winning momentum for the party which it will hope to carry into the 2019 national elections.
· BJP president Amit Shah has publicly said national elections will not move forward to December. However, a clear victory in Karnataka injects a new level of confidence into the party, and it will be left to PM Modi’s assessment of how the party might fare in the three state elections this year to decide whether the national polls would be moved forward.
· The party regains a key base to expand its footprint in south India.
· The Modi-Shah combine strengthens hold over party.
What does it mean for the Congress?
· With a sixth straight defeat under his stewardship, Rahul Gandhi’s ability to win elections comes into question.
· Party old guard could now have bigger say in future political strategies.
· Intra-party demand might rise for Priyanka Gandhi to take over.
· Blow to hopes for any Congress-led anti-BJP coalition.
What does it mean for other parties?
· Incentivizes smaller, regional parties to come together against the BJP.
· Expect the Congress to back such a grouping instead of insisting on leading it.
What does it mean for policy-making?
· The vote is a measure of support for PM Modi’s policies.
· Little impact on vote of disruptive measures such as demonetisation and GST
· Expect economic policy continuity.
· Given that rural Karnataka has voted for the BJP, expect PM Modi to double down on farming, rural infra and health.