This is an important long-awaited visit but could go off-track if UK PM Boris Johnson insists on making Ukraine and Russia the central focus while discussing international affairs. India does not want the west to lose sight of China's growing assertiveness in Asia.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be on a two-day trip to India this week. The focus will be on strengthening defence and economic ties and furthering the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. But as the visit takes place in the background of the war in Ukraine, it could be torpedoed if Johnson like many of his western counterparts attempts to lecture India on its soft-peddling of the Russian aggression.
Ahead of his visit, Johnson said, "As we face threats to our peace and prosperity from autocratic states, it is vital that democracies and friends stick together. India, as a major economic power and the world’s largest democracy, is a highly valued strategic partner for the UK in these uncertain times.”
Johnson's foreign secretary Liz Truss, who arrived in India on the same day as Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov last month, had spent time in trying to persuade India to reduce its reliance on Russia. The idea is to wean New Delhi away from Moscow and stand firmly with the world’s democracies against authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin.
While Ukraine will be discussed at length it is unlikely to be the focal point of the talks. Johnson’s trip to India is not part of the hectic diplomatic activity that was witnessed earlier. In fact, it had been a long-delayed visit thanks to the pandemic.
The Indo-Pacific is a region where New Delhi’s views converge with the UK and other western democracies. China’s unprecedented rise to number two status in the world, ready to take on the US, has sent alarm bells ringing in Washington and several European capitals, including London.
While Britain is not a member of the quad, it is part of the Australia, UK and US (AUKUS)group, which unlike the India-US-Japan-Australia format is much more defence oriented. The UK and US are helping Australia build nuclear-powered submarines that will help in patrolling the Indo-Pacific as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive Chinese navy. New Delhi is concerned that in the West’s obsession with Putin and Russia, they may overlook China’s muscle-flexing in Asia.
Economy and trade ties will also be a major focus in the talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Boris Johnson. The UK leader has made this clear
“My visit to India will deliver on the things that really matter to the people of both our nations – from job creation and economic growth to energy security and defence.”
Here he will find a willing partner in India which is struggling to provide jobs to its teeming millions. Since leaving the EU, Johnson has been trying to stitch bilateral trade agreements with major economies of the world. Talks are already underway on a free trade agreement between the two countries. Negotiations on trade take long but the two leaders will try to push the Britain hopes that an FTA with India will push UK’s long-term trade to $36.5 billion annually by 2035.
Johnson will also travel to Prime Minister Modi’s home state of Gujarat and announce major investment plans. A large majority of British Asians are from Gujarat. Indian private investments in Britain are substantial. Investment from Indian companies supports 95,000 jobs across the UK as of now. Investments that help India’s gaol of self-reliance and create new job opportunities are what New Delhi is looking for during the visit.