It's not the time for test of popularity of the politicians in the Northeast, but for militant groups to score brownie points over the administration.
Elections are not only a test of popularity for the politicians in the Northeast,they also serve as occasions for militant groups to score brownie points over the administration. This timearound, with Lok Sabha Elections around the corner for the state's two parliamentary seats, the situation inManipur appears to be on a dangerous slide, as the list of militant organizations clamping a ban on theelectoral process grows with each passing day.
There is very little doubt in the public mind regarding who rules the state ofManipur. Not even the present or would-be lawmakers labour under any illusion, and their first reaction is oneof instant capitulation and prayer for reprieve. When the insurgents refuse to pay heed to such pleadings, theonly way out appears to be a quick retreat from the filed of politics. Several such instances have occurred inthe recent past, and the most prominent among these include:
The roots of this scenario of rising chaos lie in the administrative breakdown in thestate, with the growing authority of the militants filling the vacuum. While insurgency in other Northeastern stateshas shown signs of a slow down over the past years, in Manipur the insurgents have grown from strength tostrength. In addition to a very effective extortion regime backed by an equally efficient intelligencenetwork, militants have gradually filled in the vast space left open by the coalition government, which tillvery recently remained preoccupied with keeping its alliance partners together.
As a result, mobilizing people against 'Indian misrule' has been a rather easyproposition for the militants. Over the years, their diktats on corruption in the state, and social evils likedrunkenness and drug abuse have elicited favourable responses from the people. No matter which party rules inthe state, India continues to be the ultimate loser in Manipur.
A larger insurgent game plan is also manifesting itself in Manipur. In the prevailing confusion over themultiple ban on the political process, groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM),with a dominant presence in parts of the state, are playing an important role.
In the Outer Manipur parliamentary constituency, consisting mostly of the hilldistricts of Manipur, for instance, the Naga group, the NSCN-IM, remains a potent force. In its quest for theintegration of the hill districts of Manipur in the proposed Greater Nagaland, it has becomes imperative forthe NSCN-IM to make a candidate of its choice win the elections. The group appears to be intent on thisgoal.
The NNP candidate, Valley Rose, withdrew from the race under obvious pressure. A statementissued by the NNP president (who incidentally is her husband) maintained that the decision had been taken'after seriously considering the present social and political scenario in the state'. Valley Rose herselfmaintained that the presence of too many Naga candidates creates unnecessary confusion and it was consequentlybetter that she withdrew.
Prior to this, the nomination papers of another Naga, the Congress candidate FrancisNgajokjpa, who is also a sitting minister, were rejected due to 'technical reasons'. And in the end, a Kukicandidate of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has been banned by the UKLF from contesting the elections.That leaves the Naga candidate of the BJP in the fray and he is already being projected as a winner. The NSCN-IMhas had an 'understanding' with the BJP since the Assembly elections in Nagaland in February 2003.
The situation in Manipur remains extremely disturbing not only because of the gradual tightening of the nooseby the terrorist outfits, but more because of the comprehensive lack of opposition to such strategies. An Armyofficial, speaking on conditions of anonymity from Imphal, indicating that coordinating conferences betweenthe Army, police and the para-military forces had been held to restore some control over the situation. Healso spoke of plans for redeployment of Forces in the state to prevent untoward incidents, but admitted thatit would be extremely difficult to convince the people to come to the polling booths on election day.
Dr. Nara Singh, a serving minister in the present state government and candidate of the Communist Party ofIndia (CPI) for the Inner Manipur constituency, speaking to this writer, admitted that, "as a result ofthe call for boycott, the electioneering process has been severely affected. Public rallies and door-to-doorcampaigning, an effective practice in smaller constituencies, have been affected as a result. Even thoughadequate security measures have been taken, the whole process has been disrupted."
There has been a demand for a postponement of the elections by the Manipur People's Party (MPP) till theelectoral process is completed in other states. The Communist Party of India (CPI) has asked its nationalsecretary to pressurize the Election Commission to postpone the elections. On the other hand, the state governmenthas submitted that the 79 companies of para-military forces allocated to the state are inadequate and aprovision of at least 200 companies should be made.
In a situation where the militants have made their intentions very clear, a fair poll does not seem to bewithin the realm of possibility. At the same time, however, a postponement of the electoral process will onlyserve the cause of the militants further, by underlining their authority. Manipur, today needs to send out astrong signal against the forces of disruption, and such a signal needs to come not only from the politicalparties, but from the common people as well, who will have to move out of their homes on April 20 and 26 tocast their votes. Perhaps no other state in India needs a fair and free poll than Manipur today.
Bibhu Prasad Routray is Acting Director, ICM Database & Documentation Centre,Guwahati. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal