Bypolls In Kerala: Tough Time For Left, Hope For BJP and Yet Another VIP Candidate For Congress

Three Assembly constituencies in Kerala are going to the polls on November 13. While Palakkad and Chelakkara were left vacant by sitting MLAs who contested in the Parliament elections, ‘star constituency’ Wayanad was vacated by Rahul Gandhi who chose to retain Amethi instead. Palakkad was relinquished by Shafi Parambil, who defeated former Health Minister KK Shailaja in Vadakara Lok Sabha Constituency in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Chelakkara, a stronghold of CPI(M), was left vacant by K Radhakrishnan, a former Minister who was elected to Lok Sabha from Alathur constituency in the Lok Sabha polls. 

As far as Kerala is concerned, any by-election is as exciting as a general election, consuming the entire time of political leaders and grabbing media attention till the day of polling.

The upcoming by-election is very critical for all three major political parties in Kerala – Communist Party of India (Marxist), Congress, and BJP. For CPI(M), this is going to be a real test as the party, the Government, and the LDF are facing the brunt of adverse public opinion for multiple reasons. The anti-incumbency factor is perceived to be at an all-time high due to recent allegations against the Chief Minister for his style of governance in general and policing policy in particular. The defection of the LDF-backed independent MLA PV Anvar from Nilambur in Malappuram and his emotional outburst against the Chief Minister and the party put CPI(M) in a fix. 

The allegation raised by Anvar that the Kerala Police has been saffronised and have been acting according to commands from RSS created a huge debate in Kerala. The series of allegations against Additional Director General of Police Ajith Kumar for involvement in seizing gold at Karipur Airport, trespassing on the powers entrusted to the customs department, have triggered an inquiry against him. (Ajith Kumar was later transferred from Law and Order.) Being an independent, Anvar does not have to quit his position. He keeps storming against CPI(M), the Chief Minister and LDF, which causes immeasurable damage to the party.

Corruption allegations against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's daughter, Veena T, have also fuelled public anger against the government. Despite no court finding merit in the cases against Veena thus far, the Chief Minister's conspicuous silence on the matter has sparked discontent, reaching even into party ranks. These developments, combined with other issues, have intensified the anti-incumbency sentiment, posing a significant challenge for the LDF government.

Adding to CPI(M)'s troubles is the tragic demise of Additional District Magistrate Naveen Babu, who died by suicide following a public confrontation with CPI(M)'s District Panchayat President. The incident unfolded when PP Divya, President of Kannur District Panchayat, made an unexpected appearance at the ADM's farewell meeting – he was being transferred to his home district – and levelled corruption allegations against him. Naveen Babu was found dead in his quarters the following day. The incident sparked widespread outrage on social media, forcing CPI(M) to demand Divya's resignation. Despite the party's attempts at damage control, the leadership remains deeply concerned about its potential electoral implications.

Priyanka in Wayanad

Wayanad has remained an undisputed UDF fortress since its formation, with IUML maintaining substantial political influence. The constituency's electoral history showcases this dominance - Congress leader M.I. Shanavas secured consecutive victories in 2009 and 2014, followed by Rahul Gandhi's impressive wins in 2019 and 2024. Gandhi's victories were particularly notable, defeating CPI's Annie Raja with margins exceeding 3.6 lakh votes before he chose to retain Amethi. With Annie Raja unlikely to contest again, CPI is considering fielding former legislator E.S. Bijimol, another experienced female leader. Meanwhile, the BJP, which previously fielded state chief K. Surendran against Rahul Gandhi, is exploring new candidatures.

The political landscape in Palakkad presents BJP's strongest chance to secure representation in the Legislative Assembly. The party's growing influence is evident from its second-place finishes in both 2016 and 2021, relegating the Left to third position. The 2021 election was particularly noteworthy, featuring a close contest between Congress's Shafi Parambil, who held the seat for three consecutive terms from 2011, and BJP's E. Sreedharan, the renowned 'Metro Man'. The current political climate, marked by internal dissent within LDF, potentially strengthens BJP's position further.

For the upcoming by-election, Congress has nominated young leader Rahul Mankoottathil. The party faces immense pressure to retain this seat, particularly after facing criticism for allowing Shafi Parambil to contest the Vadakara Lok Sabha seat, thereby necessitating this by-election. The party would have to face the wrath of the minority communities if BJP wins the seat.

The pre-election scenario took an unexpected turn when Dr Sarin, a Congress aspirant, publicly criticised Opposition Leader V.D. Satheeshan and questioned the party's decision to field Shafi in Vadakara. He argued that this move unnecessarily exposed the seat to the BJP. In a dramatic development, CPI(M) seized this opportunity and welcomed Dr. Sarin, subsequently announcing him as their candidate. A CPI(M) State Committee member justified this strategic move, stating, "With both Congress and BJP facing internal conflicts, Sarin's candidacy could help us attract voters from both camps, despite our current third position."

For CPI(M), while retaining their stronghold in Chelakkara remains crucial, they face an uphill battle due to widespread anti-government sentiment, which has penetrated even their party ranks. The outcome of these by-elections could significantly reshape Kerala's political landscape, with each party facing unique challenges and opportunities in their quest for victory.