The powerplay of Kuki rebel groups in favour of the BJP has become one of the biggest talking points in Manipur this election
“Since they cannot be the king, they are trying to be the kingmaker,” said a schoolteacher of Kuki ethnicity who has been a longtime Congressman in the Saikul assembly Kangpokpi district in Manipur, referring to the powerplay of Kuki rebel groups ahead of and during the elections.
He did not want to be identified, fearing retribution, as the Kuki outfits hold significant influence in this area. He could not campaign for his preferred candidate and alleges that he could not cast his vote either.
“Cadres of the Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA) summoned the tribal chief of our village and told him that every Kuki working for any other party but the BJP will be treated as an enemy of the Kuki people,” he said. "A similar pattern was observed in Churachandpur district," he added.
The Kuki-Chin-Zo tribes usually clubbed under the Kuki ethnicity, the third-largest ethnic group in Manipur, had so long had the least influence in the state’s politics. With the Kuki group’s alleged powerplay in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2022 elections, can the group become the kingmaker by helping the party win adequate seats to form a government entirely on its own?
In 2017, the BJP won 21 seats but reached the majority mark of 31 by allying with the Naga People’s Front (NPF), the National People’s Party (NPP), one Trinamool Congress MLA and an independent. Now, contesting without any alliance, they are targeting 31 seats on their own.
While Churachandpur is the main stronghold of the Kukis, they also have a sizable population in Chandel, Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal and Senapati districts. There are six assembly constituencies in Churachandpur, three in Kangpokpi, three in Senapati and one each in Chandel and Tengnoupal.
The Congress allegedly suffered badly in the hands of the Kuki groups in several districts this assembly election but they were not alone in this. The Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA), a newly-launched political party, and the first claiming to represent the interests of the people of Kuki ethnicity, made repeated allegations on the same line.
“The responsibility of the ZRA (Zomi Revolutionary Army) is to protect the poor farmers and community members and uphold human rights of all citizens, including the right to the freedom of assembly and of expression. However, the organisation has become a terror mongering group against their own people,” said a statement issued by the KPA on March 4, a day ahead of the second and final phase of polling in Manipur assembly elections.
Both ZRA and KPA claim to represent the same ethnic group of Kuki-Chin-Zo tribes, who live mostly in the hills, side by side with the Nagas, the second largest ethnic group of Manipur. The Meiteis, who live in the Imphal valley, are the dominant ethnic group.
The KPA was launched ahead of the assembly elections by a group of Kuki civil society personalities to look after the interests of the Kuki people. They contended that all major political parties, including the Congress and the BJP were preoccupied with the interests of the Meiteis, while the Nagas had the NPF for their political representation.
“The Kukis had nothing, no political platform. Therefore, this party,” said Chinlunthang Zou , the KPA candidate from Singhat constituency in Churachandpur district. His constituency stood witness to ZRA members harassing, intimidating and assaulting KPA supporters.
While KPA members had their dreams and ideas, rebel groups claiming to represent the same ethnic group had other plans. They decided to support the BJP - not one or two organisations but as many as 23 of them: 15 under the banner of Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and eight under the United People’s Front (UPF).
All these groups are observing a suspension of operations (SoO) agreement with the Government of India and had in 2020 climbed down from their secessionist demand to that of autonomous councils.
Their support would influence the result in at least 11 of the state’s 60 assembly constituencies, senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh, former Union minister and the party’s Manipur in-charge, alleged in a tweet on March 5.
“Shockingly ECI held large payments to banned militant groups made on 1.1.22 & 1.3.22 by Manipur Govt do not violate Model Code of Conduct. They do & I’m petitioning (the) Supreme Court. Payments were suddenly released during (the) poll period after (a) long gap. It murdered elections in 11 seats!” Ramesh wrote in a tweet.
By 11 seats, he probably referred to those in the districts of Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, Chandel and Tengnoupal, as in Senapati the Nagas are more dominant than the Kukis.
The ECI refused to treat the payment as a violation of the model code of conduct, as such payment was considered routine.
Militant groups trying to influence poll results is no new practice, neither in Manipur nor in other states affected by different kinds of insurgencies, including the Maoist insurgency in central, eastern and southern India.
In Manipur, the Imphal valley-based rebel groups of mostly Meitei ethnicity had tried to foil the Congress’ chance of returning to power in 2012 but failed in their mission rather miserably, with the party ending up winning 42 of the 60 seats. Following this, these rebel groups - most of which are still at war with the Government of India – stopped meddling with elections.
Of the militant groups having a ceasefire or suspension of operations (SoO) agreement with the government of India, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), or the NSCN (I-M), have repeatedly faced allegations of trying to rig polls in favour of the NPF that holds influence in the Naga dominated hill constituencies of Manipur.
But in 2022, it’s the Kuki rebel groups who made the biggest noise by publicly pledging to help the BJP return to power. Quite evidently, these insurgent groups did not have faith in a newbie and decided to go all-out in favour of the BJP.
There have been claims and counterclaims about the nature and components of the bargain. The BJP’s Churachandpur candidate, V Hangkhanlian, who served as the agriculture minister in the N Biren Singh government, ruled out any foul play. “The BJP has earned the trust of the Kuki people because of the sincerity it displayed in bringing a political solution to the problems the Kukis faced,” he said.
Nevertheless, critics point out an interesting 'chronology' of events worth an attempt to understand.
On February 1, 2022, the ministry of home affairs released Rs. 15.7 crore to Manipur state government as a ‘backlog monthly stipend’ for the members of Kuki groups under SoO agreement. The state government disbursed the fund among the rebel groups in the following weeks.
It was a time when the electoral campaign in Manipur had started to peak. Cadres of 23 rebel groups under SoS agreement are entitled to get a monthly stipend of Rs. 6,000 but it had not been paid since October 2020. In a clarification to ECI on March 4, the ministry of home affairs said the funds released on February 1 was the ‘backlog’ for the period of October
2020-September 2021.
Both these conglomerates are under a suspension of operation agreement with the government of India since 2008 - being extended on a half-yearly basis over the past few years. According to the ministry of home affairs’ website, the last extension was valid from September 1, 2021 to February 28, 2022. It has not been renewed yet.
On February 25, the KNO issued a statement supporting the candidates of the BJP in all Kuki-dominated areas of Manipur. The next day, the UPF followed suit.
Kuki rebel group’s open support for the BJP is nothing new - it was first observed during the bypoll in Saitu assembly constituency when the Congress had also lodged a formal complaint against Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA). However, the scale was far greater this year.
Whether the BJP manages to sweep the districts of Churachandpur, Kangpokpi, Chancel and Tengnoupal will be known on March 10, the day of the assembly election result. The results can give birth to new equations in this last bastion of insurgency in India’s northeast.