Candle Burning At Three Ends

Sir, you should therefore fix clear benchmarks for Pakistani action on counter-terrorism; any slippage should halt the dialogue. There shouldn’t be attempts at big-ticket solutions—any points conceded are points wasted till stability returns to Pakistan. If Islamabad can’t get a deal implemented in its own tribal valleys, it can hardly be expected to settle complex issues like Kashmir. You should initiate a major reassessment of India’s defence capabilities, building a viable missile defence system and augment the punch and reach of its air force and navy. We should develop a bouquet of options for controlled escalation, in gradual steps, as a punitive response to any major terrorist attack in which Pakistan is complicit. It’s hypocritical of New Delhi to decry US meddling when the NDA, during the Kargil war, and the UPA, after 26/11, have liberally used the US, which is the only country, other than China, to enjoy leverage both in Islamabad and with the GHQ in Rawalpindi.

Mr Prime Minister, you will have to build on existing levels of engagement with the US counter-terrorism effort, which is evolving and maturing in Afghanistan. Even the CPI(M) must eschew its blanket anti-Americanism. The greater danger to India today is from radical Islam overrunning our neighbourhood rather than the US colonising South Asia, which is a foolish notion in itself.

In Nepal, India began well, ensuring that the peace process remained with the United Nations. But somewhere along the way, India lost the plot. Early signs of Prachanda’s attempt at a strategic shift towards China were visible when he cracked down on non-violent Tibetan protesters last year. His visit to Beijing before coming to India was another indicator. That India should resist an enhanced Chinese presence in Kathmandu is a given; that this resistance has happened sloppily would be for your government to rue. The open border with Nepal, close cultural ties with the Madhesi population, time-tested links with the Gorkhas through the army—all these demand maintenance of the status quo. Even the CPI(M) must acknowledge that the Chinese role in India’s neighbourhood has been inimical to Indian interests. The Maoists are entitled to reap the benefits of a popular mandate, but any attempt to alter existing red lines vis-a-vis India or the Nepalese army should be resisted, even countered.

Then there’s Sri Lanka, where the UPA government sat through the Rajapakse family’s incremental centralisation of authority, the brutal repression of the media and the single-minded pursuit to decimate the LTTE. Rajapakse understood that his crusade against Rajiv Gandhi’s killer wouldn’t be stymied by New Delhi as long as the civilian casualties didn’t rock Tamil Nadu. But the unwanted surfaced during the recent election campaign. As Vaiko and even Jayalalitha began espousing the Eelam issue, New Delhi realised its leverage in Colombo, unexercised for five years, had ceased to exist. The challenge for you, Mr Prime Minister, is to ensure a Sinhalese military victory doesn’t sideline the real issue of devolution of power to the Tamil minority. Otherwise a new Prabhakaran will be born.

Sir, you need to reconceptualise your government’s security paradigms and diplomatic narrative, upholding the sole test of national interest. These are likely to be tested early on by the neighbours. As a great US president once said, "Speak softly and carry a big stick." In the era of coalition politics, expediency may circumscribe strategic decisions. Ted Sorensen, one of John F. Kennedy’s closest advisors, recounts in Counsellor that JFK pressed on with civil rights legislation despite its unpopularity in the southern states, then a bastion of his Democratic party. The Republicans went on to win seven out of the next 10 presidential elections. However, in 2008, an African-American candidate rose from the seeds planted by JFK 45 years ago. Our TV anchors routinely ask, "Where is the Indian Obama?" The more pertinent question is: Where is our JFK?

(The writer is a former secretary, ministry of external affairs)