Cyclone Biparjoy: Track And Impact Area Explained

As Cyclone Biparjoy intensified into an "extremely severe cyclonic storm" on Sunday, a warning was issued for the coastline in Gujarat and Pakistan, the areas surrounding where it is expected to make landfall. According to the latest information by India Meteorological Department (IMD), ‘Biparjoy’ over the east-central Arabian Sea will cross Saurashtra-Kutch in Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts around the afternoon of June 15. The impact, however, is expected to be the harshest in Gujarat where it will hit as a "very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)".

As of this morning, Cyclone Biparjoy lay centred about 480 kilometres south-southwest of Porbandar, 530 km south-southwest of Dwarka and 610 km south-southwest of Naliya in Kutch, IMD bulletin showed. "VSCS (very severe cyclonic storm) 'Biparjoy' intensified into an ESCS (extremely severe cyclonic storm) at 5:50 am today (Sunday), about 480 km SSW of Porbandar, 530 km SSW of Dwarka and 610 km SSW of Naliya. 

"To cross Saurashtra and Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts bw Mandvi, Gujarat and Karachi, Pakistan around noon of June 15 as VSCS (very severe cyclonic storm)," the weather department tweeted.

It is the second-strongest cyclone in Arabian Sea, according to IMD, the strongest being Cyclone Tauktae of 2021. 

Path of Cyclone Biparjoy

Cyclone Biparjoy formed over the Arabian Sea and travelled eastwards and then northwards bringing strong winds and rain along Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra coasts. Fishermen have been warned as it is moving further northwards improving winds along Gujarat coasts in Saurashtra and Kutch. 

Winds will increase to 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph on Monday, and 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

It will move further north-northwestwards crossing Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts. The landfall is expected to be in northwest Gujarat on Wednesday or Thursday. Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is very likely to prevail along and off Saurashtra coast on Thursday, the IMD said.

However, the track of Cyclone Biparjoy has been unclear as different forecasters predict different dates and areas of landfall. According to IMD, the landfall will be on June 15 in Gujarat. Meanwhile, popular weather website Windy showed a different date and landfall area, as per a report by Down To Earth. Global Forecast System (GFS) showed the cyclone will likely make landfall in  Balochistan province of Pakistan on June 16, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model showed that the landfall will occur in the Sindh province of Pakistan on June 16, according to the report.

As of Sunday afternoon, ECMWF on Windy website showed the cyclone track moving northeastward towards Rajasthan after crossing north Gujarat and bordering areas of Pakistan.

Cyclone Biparjoy track as per ECMWF on Windy website. Windy

On the other hand, Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist and manager of International Forecasting at popular website AccuWeather said in the news report that Oman to coastal Pakistan and Gujarat should be prepared for possible impacts next week.

Impact and Preparedness

High tidal waves were seen hitting the coast in Mumbai as cyclone Biparjoy moves northwards of Maharashtra coastline. On Saturday, giant tidal waves were witnessed in Ganpatipule in the state’s Ratnagiri district.

In an advisory issued in the early hours of Sunday, the weather department said during the day wind speeds will touch 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph along and off Saurashtra and Kutch coast. IMD has advised total suspension of fishing operations in the region till June 15 and has asked fishermen to not venture into central Arabian sea, north Arabian sea during June 12-15, and along and off Saurashtra-Kutch coasts till June 15.

It further advised those out at sea to return to coast and regulate offshore and onshore activities judiciously.

Sea conditions along and off Saurashtra and Kutch coasts will likely remain "rough to very rough" till Wednesday, and very rough to high on Thursday, it said.

The state governments have aso been advised to keep a close watch, monitor the situation in their areas regularly and take appropriate precautionary measures. The IMD has advised the district authorities accordingly, it said.