'Dalit votes will also not go to one single party. But the BJP may benefit from the social engineering that they did.'
In the sweet cold breeze of February, two friends–Lallu Dom and Ramadhar Nishad sat on the boat–waiting for the dusk–it will be called the day then. Both works at Sangam in Prayagraj and have different views on politicians. Dom, whose work is to dispose of dead bodies, considers Prime Minister Modi–a leader who gave recognition–to the lower caste community. But Nishad believes it was Mayawati under whose rule the lower caste community got the real recognition.
“She gave jobs to lower caste people. In her rule development of Scheduled Caste could happen. We were able to show that we exist.” Said Ramadhar Nishad. His work involves keeping an eye on devotees and saving the lives of those who enter the deep river. He thinks, “Mayawati couldn’t ensure the development of the Nishad community. Our condition remained as it is.”
“Police take credit for what all we do, but here people support Yogi only.” He gives the reason, “Nishad has a political party, which supports BJP, but not all Nishads support BJP.”
Difference of opinion on politics between Dom and Nishad is also related to the caste arithmetics of lower caste groups. Political parties are eying on it. When elections are entering in the last phases, these equations would be important, as eastern UP is a place of assertive Backward Castes castes like Rajbhar, Maurya, Kurmis, Nishads, Lonia.
On 21 February, Union Home Minister Amit Shah in an interview with News18 said that, “BSP has maintained its relevance. I believe it will get votes. I don't know how much of it will convert into seats but it will get votes.” He also said BSP will get Muslim votes too.
Senior Journalist Qubul Ahmad, who has been observing the trends of UP politics believes, that, “Majority of traditional Dalit votes of Jatav will go to BSP and, BJP knows that. This statement of Shah clearly depicts that, BJP wants a trilateral battle in UP because if BSP emerges as the third front in eastern UP, it will help BJP.” In 2017, When BJP registered a thumping majority, BSP still secured 8 seats in eastern UP. So, BSP is a relevant party in eastern UP.
Nishad is an umbrella term for Mallah, Kevat, Bind, Kashyap, Sahni etc, whose livelihood depends on the river and fisheries. In Purvanchal region, their vote matters. For Nishads, there is no big single leadership.
Sanjay Kumar Nishad, the president of Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (Nishad party) is in alliance with BJP and is contesting on 16 seats. On the other hand, Mukesh Sahani, president of Vikassheel Insaan Party, an ally of BJP in Bihar, is contesting 55-odd seats in Uttar Pradesh against BJP. Sahani’s pitch for election has been to get SC reservation for Nishads. He recently said, “once BJP is voted out from power in UP, they will be forced to give reservation for Nishads in 2024.”
Ahmad said, “When Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party gave ticket to Phoolan Devi, a lot of Nishad votes shifted to SP. They also voted for BSP.”
“For the 2017 election, BJP did a good social engineering to bring Nishads to their fold. But now, when there is multiple leadership among Nishads, their vote will not go to a single party, and a lot will depend on constituency- specific engineering.” SP still has big Nishad leaders like Vishambhar Prasad Nishad, who is now a Rajya Sabha MP and holds a following in the Nishad community. So, SP will also get votes under the influence of Vishambhar Prasad Nishad.
Rajbhar community too has Multiple leaderships. When Om Prakash Rajbhar resigned from cabinet, Anil Rajbhar was brought as an alternative to Om Prakash Rajbhar in the BJP. Interestingly, Arvind Rajbhar, son of Om Prakash Rajbhar is contesting against BJP’s Anil Rajbhar from Varansi’s Shivpur constituency. Ramachal Rajbhar, another important Rajbhar leader who was five-time MLA from BSP, is now contesting from SP.
Though, the issue of reservation, on which Om Prakash Rajbhar was vocal, couldn't become an election pitch. A 2018-leaked report recommending Sub-categorisation of OBC castes–which created a buzz among OBCs and MBCs–has been sidelined. But for the educated class Rajbhar and Nishads–it was a mobilising factor.
Badri Narayan, professor, Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute, Prayagraj told Outlook, “It was Om Prakash Rajbhar, who wanted it to get implemented. Had BJP implemented it, It could have strengthened support of castes like Rajbhars, Nishads, Gadariya for BJP.”
Pasi community, traditional voters of BSP are slowly shifting toward BJP. BJP has done it through recognising its heroes. Narayan in his book Republic of Hindutva writes, “The RSS also celebrated other Pasi heroes such as Baldeo and Daldeo, who were once used by parties like the BSP, which was formed by Kanshiram in 1984 as a party exclusively for the backward castes and minority groups. These figures, earlier projected as symbolic Dalit heroes who resisted upper-caste oppression, were now being transformed into ‘national’, ‘Hindu’ heroes by the RSS.”
Schemes providing ration for the poor during Covid-19 have also affected people’s mindset in favor of Modi and BJP. BJP has blurred the differences of state election with Union election for some. Despite it being an assembly election, some are still seeing voting for BJP as voting for Modi. Malti Devi, a safai worker from the Pasi community, said “Modi gave ration to us, he also gave pension to my mother-in-law. So, we will vote for Lotus.”
Not just among Pasi, the stronghold of BSP–Jatav vote has also developed some affinity toward BJP. Narayan believes it was because of co-opting Dalit heroes in Hindu fold. “Examples of co-opted Dalit heroes are Ravidas and Supach Rishi from the Jatav community; Dina-Bhadri, worshipped by the Musahar community as deities for fighting for the rights of bonded labourers.” writes Narayan.
In eastern UP Nathpanthis–Ravidassias and the Kabir Panth, which has a large following among the Dalits, MBCs and OBCs are crucial. To woo the Kabir Panthis, Modi visited Maghar in 2018, where Kabir was cremated. “In UP, about half of the Jatav community could be Kabirpanthis and the rest are followers of Ravidassia sects. Kabir is also venerated by backward agrarian castes like Kurmis, Kushwahas, Kunjars and Paneris.”
In the 2019, Lok Sabha election, BJP targeted non-Yadav backward castes like Patel, Maurya, Murav, Nishad, Lodh, Kachi and non- Jatav Dalit castes like Pasi, Nai, Dhobhi, Valmiki, Sonkar, Khatik. Ahmed said, “in eastern UP, all OBC castes are significant and also assertive. The social engineering by SP, had made eastern UP, a challenging region for BJP, which earlier seemed to be an easy walk for them.”
“Dalit votes will also not go to one single party. But the BJP may benefit from the social engineering that they did.”
Communities like Nat, Kuchbandhiya, Sahariya, Kanjar, Kol whose votes are termed “stepney vote”, (meaning votes apart from core vote bank of a party) according to Narayan. In our field visit we found they are dependent on welfare schemes like PM Awas and free ration and they decide voting on the basis of that. Ahmed Said, “There is no uniform pattern of voting in these castes. It will depend on constituency to constituency. ”
71-year-old Chaturbhuj from Nat community who was living in a makeshift house in Prayagraj got angry on the question of voting itself, he said, “we didn’t get anything. Officer would say bring a ration card, while everyone else was getting ration. I don’t have a ration card. Police used to beat us for working during lockdown. Why would we vote?” But others are happy with the free ration that they got. 23-year-old Pankaj Nat, said, “Modi gave free ration and now we are getting offerings from devotees here in Sangam. All is done by Modi and Yogi only.”