Himachal Pradesh is set for the counting of votes on Thursday as both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and opposition Congress express confidence to have favourable results.
Himachal Pradesh elections were held on November 12. The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) Chief Minister Jairam Thakur has told Outlook that the party is headed to a victory but remains open to all options. On its part, the Congress is also confident of changing the 'raj' in the state and return to power.
Himachal Pradesh is set for the counting of votes on Thursday as both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and opposition Congress express confidence to have favourable results.
Exit polls have thrown mixed scenarios for the BJP and Congress in Himachal, with two leading polls either showing the Congress winning or a neck-to-neck contest between the two, whereas two other polls have shown edge to the BJP.
Amid such uncertainties, the BJP and Congress are preparing for all scenarios, ranging from parking MLAs outside Himachal to prevent poaching and to keep channels open with the rebels and Independent candidates expected to win.
The contest in Himachal this time is a battle of changing raj and rivaj. Himachal has historically had a rivaj —custom— of changing raj —ruling party— every five years and the BJP is seeking to change this rivaj by getting re-elected and the Congress is seeking to repeat this custom and change the raj by returning to power.
The road to Himachal elections has not been easy for either the BJP or Congress. The BJP has suffered from the infighting and rebellions over ticket-distribution and there have been tussles over the chief ministerial post in the Congress as well, with multiple leaders eyeing the post.
Himachal Pradesh assembly elections were held on November 12. The state recorded 74.54 per cent voter turn out.
Himachal Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Maneesh Garg said the counting of votes will start on 8 am in 68 counting halls in 59 locations across Himachal. He added that the counting will start with the postal ballot at 8 am followed by EVM counting at 8.30 am.
Compared to men, the women voters' turnout was around 4.5 per cent higher. Himchal Pradesh Chief Minister Jairam Thakur told Outlook that the BJP is counting on higher women voters' turnout to win the elections.
"I believe that the kind of impact Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made on women voters, particularly in the rural areas, is amazing to see. We believe it will be reflected favourably for the BJP when results are out," said Thakur to Outlook in an exclusive interview.
More than 10,000 security personnel, returning officers (ROs), and other support staff will oversee the counting of votes.
A three-tier security system has been set up for the strong rooms, the innermost parameter of which will be guarded by the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), and second and third by the armed police and district executive force, as per officials.
No candidate or any other person will be allowed within 100 metres of counting centres except those with a valid identity card/pass issued by the Election Commission of India (ECI). A system will be put in place for receiving counting related information and complaints at the CEO office. A helpline number 1950 has been made active.
Himachal Pradesh election results are expected to be very tight as exit polls have thrown mixed results.
Compared to Delhi municipal elections where Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was uniformly expected to win and Gujarat where the BJP is uniformly expected to win, there is no uniformity in predictions for Himachal election results.
Himachal has a 68-member assembly and a party needs 35 seats to secure simple majority.
India Today-Axis My India exit poll shows that the Congress can return to power with 30-40 seats and the BJP is expected to get 34 seats. There is therefore a possibility of hung assembly as well.
News 24-Today's Chanakya exit poll ties the Congress and BJP at 26-33 seats.
The Times Now exit poll predicts 38 seats to BJP and 28 to Congress.
ABP News-C Voter exit poll predicts 44 seats to BJP and 21 to Congress.
The BJP and Congress have both centred this election around Himachal's unique electoral history.
Himachal has a history of changing the party in power in every election and the BJP seeks to change this trend this time. Therefore, the BJP's slogan throughout the campaign was 'raj nahi, rivaj badlenge', meaning they would change the historic custom by getting re-elected.
On the contrary, the Congress seeks to repeat history by defeating BJP and returning to power.
The Congress has been confident of its victory, saying the voters will decide on the fundamental issues of price rise, joblessness, the old pension scheme (OPS), and other challenges of life and livelihood the state residents have been facing.
With a muted campaign by the Aam Aadmi Party and its former state in-charge Satyendar Jain lodged in Tihar jail, the Congress is upbeat that its vote share will only improve, while the BJP hopes to gain from a higher women vote percentage than men.
The BJP's campaign in Himachal saw exclusive focus on women and youth, with the party rolling out a standalone manifesto for women for the first time in the Himachal's history. A higher women turnout has of late favoured the BJP, as seen in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, with the party hoping that similar trends will hold in Himachal Pradesh.
Women voter turnout in Himachal has surpassed men's since 1998.
In addition, a historic voter registration in the hill state in the 18-19 year segment has given the BJP a reason to believe it may have an edge.
The stakes are highest for the Congress which has been on a losing spree for over two years now, not registering a single state election victory on its own.
The Congress holds power only in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, both of which will go to polls in 2023. Congress insiders say that any hopes for the party's revival has to start from Himachal Pradesh.
"If we don't win Himachal, I don't know from where we will win," said a Congress leader to PTI.
While both Congress and BJP express confidence in winning Himachal assembly elections, both the parties are preparing for all eventualities.
The Congress has made arrangements to park their elected MLAs outside Himachal to prevent the BJP from poaching them. Outlook reported that the Congress brass has assigned one micro-observer per constituency and that observer will escort the Congress candidate upon victory to the secret destination outside Himachal so that BJP cannot poach them.
On its part, the BJP is open to taking support from its rebels and Independent MLAs.
The BJP's Himachal campaign was marred by infighting and rebellions. There are as many as 21 BJP rebels who are contesting against official candidates of the BJP. These candidates are expected to the prospects of official BJP candidates. But the party is also open to taking their support if they end up winning as Independents.
“The party is keeping all its options open for the upcoming situation. We are not averse to taking support of the Independents,” said BJP Himachal President Suresh Kashyap to Outlook.
Separately, CM Thakur also confirmed to Outlook that the BJP is open to support from rebels.
“We are hoping to do well and get two-third majority. Yet we are also in close touch with rebels. Few have come to me on their own,” confirmed Thakur to Outlook.
In an exclusive candid interview, Thakur admitted to Outlook that it's "not so easy" to be re-elected but also said he is hopeful of a victory.
He said, "For the past four decades, the Congress and BJP have alternated the governments. No incumbent government has returned to power. That’s a perception not so easy to end. It’s a historical reality in Himachal Pradesh. This is first time that the BJP has worked out its poll strategy to focus on changing this trend — riwaaj. Let’s hope we succeed."
Of the rebels, Thakur told Outlook, "I agree that the rebels will have an impact on the overall election outcome. There are few seats where some of them have damaged us as well as the Congress. We will analyse this aspect once the results are in front of us."
(With PTI inputs)