The Congress had won 40 seats in the 2022 assembly polls against 25 of them BJP. But now, the effective strength of the congress has gone down to 34 in the 68-member House.
While six rebel Congress MLAs await Supreme Court taking-up their plea against disqualification—hearing slated for March 18, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announcing simultaneous by poll to ‘six vacant’ assembly seats could upset their plan to oust the incumbent Congress government, at least for now.
The political turmoil caused by the crossvoting by six rebels in the Rajya Sabha poll tends to overshadow the Lok Sabha poll scenes in the hill state, where the BJP is confident of a hat-trick on four Lok Sabha seats the party had won in 2014 and 2019.
Yet, it’s the by poll for six assembly seats of disqualified congress MLAs going to be a crucial test for Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu, his 15-month-old congress government in the state.
For the Congress too, the elections in Himachal Pradesh are going to be a high-stake battle because the party had romped home to power in the north by upsetting the BJP's apple cart of "double engine" Now, it's the question more about stability of the government than getting any of the four Lok Sabha seats--one of these--Mandi, which the party had won in 2021 bypoll.
After the rebellion, Sukhu is treading a tough path for his government stability keeping an eagle's eye on his flock of MLAs, many of these having been appointed to top government posts--mostly cabinet ranks to cement their loyalty to the party. Also, to thwart BJP poaching on them.
The Congress had won 40 seats in the 2022 assembly polls against 25 of them BJP. But now, the effective strength of the congress has gone down to 34 in the 68-member House. This is a critical situation for the ruling Congress.
Following the disqualification, the effective strength of the House has gone down to 62 from 68, while the number of Congress MLAs has shrunk to 34 from 40.
As per ECI schedule Himachal Pradesh will go to the polls in the seventh phase of the polling on June 1 coinciding with the bypoll on the six assembly seats.
Legal experts believe that the Supreme Court ordinarily doesn’t interfere with the ECI schedule for the poll, but it is always open to the top court to examine (judicially) the merits on which the disqualification of the MLAs was ordered by the Speaker. Thus, all eyes are on the Supreme Court.
Right now, the disqualified MLAs must also worry about going back to the polls within 15 months of their election while the Lok Sabha polls turn out to be a secondary thing for them. Will the BJP be ready to give all of them tickets to contest their assembly seats?
Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu when contacted avoided to comment on the situation though he claimed that the rebel MLAs will face huge opposition in their constituencies.
“They have got CRPF personnel deployed at their homes for safety, which itself shows their worries in facing the public” he added.
The six rebels, who included Sudhir Sharma, Rajinder Rana, Inder Dutt Lakhanpal, Ravi Thakur, Chetanya Sharma and Devinder Kumar Bhutto. They were disqualified for defying a Congress whip to be present in the House when the state’s budget for year 2024-25 was passed on February 28.
The rebel MLAs, in their petition in the supreme Court have alleged violation of the principle of natural justice, asserting that they did not get adequate opportunity to respond to the disqualification petition filed against them by Harshvardhan Chauhan, minister for parliamentary affairs.
Former Chief Minister Jairam Thakur, who is also leader of opposition welcomed the announcement of the election schedule for the Lok Sabha poll.
“The June 1, Lok Sabha polls and also bypoll for six assembly seats, are going to be very significant for the BJP. The conditions under which the elections are being held are very different from all previous polls. We are not only going to form a government at the national level—a Modi hat-trick -- but also in Himachal Pradesh” he told Outlook over phone.
Thakur said, “We will form two governments—one the national and other state with one stroke”.
Thus, it looks clear that the BJP has not given-up hope on the Sukhu government crushing down mid-way, if not through the congress rebellion but after the by poll on six seats.
If the BJP wins all six assembly seats in the bypoll, its effective strength in the House will increase to 31 and with three independents on its side, the numbers will turn equal 34:34.
Union minister for Information and Broadcasting Anurag Thakur, who is a candidate from Hamirpur welcomed the ECI announcement of the polls along with bypoll for the six assembly seats, which he said, will go to the BJP along with all four Lok Sabha seats.
Six assembly seats which will witness the by poll include Dharamshala, Sujanpur, Lahaul-Spiti, Gagret, Kutlehar and Barsar. Three of these in CM's home district.