Delivery Awaited

It turned out to be a false scare ultimately, but the fear that gripped me last week very much lingers. Down with a slight fever and a sore throat, the first thought that crossed my mind was the possibility of the COVID-19 virus breaching our defences at home. Precautionary tests followed and all three in my immediate family tested negative, fortunately. For once, failing a test brought temporary relief. But I continue to be strung out by the little but lethal adversary rampaging through the world, holding us hostage from leading our normal lives.

Like everyone else, disoriented in varying degrees by the disruptions that the new coronavirus has brought upon us, I am also betting on the discovery of a vaccine(s), the soonest the better. After months of des­pondency, our hopes are soaring with our sights firmly on around 45-odd potential vaccines that are currently in different stages of trial worldwide. Another 156 probable vaccines are undergoing pre-clinical evaluations and those in the know are telling us that an antidote to rid us of the raging pandemic is certainly on the anvil in the coming months.

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All this is good news. But the bad news is that our challenge to worst the pandemic will not end with the discovery of a vaccine. For that matter, it may just begin since a far bigger and more complicated task would be to deliver the vaccine in a fair and equitable manner to the millions that urgently need them. The numbers inv­olved would be mammoth and the available time is short for the vaccines to transit from the lab to the arms of those to be vaccinated. So, the logical question to ask is whether India will be up to it.

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A bit of explaining will help in understanding the scale and magnitude of the task that awaits us once a vaccine is found. As part of the nation’s Universal Immunisation Programme that covers about 26 million newborns and 30 million pregnant women every year, India provides vaccinations for 12 preventable diseases such as polio, measles and diphtheria. It has logistics in place, including thousands of health workers and cold-chain points required to store the vaccines in low temperatures while they are shipped from laboratories to the targets.

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But what we have been capable of so long may not be enough to effectively counter the spread of Covid. First off, millions more would have to be inoculated. By one estimate, the Indian government is reportedly looking at some 300 million people to be vaccinated on priority. That alone would mean a manifold increase in the number of health workers or vaccinators required, together with a humungous inventory of syringes, vials, gauzes et al. Storing the vaccines in low temperatures—some may reportedly need chilling conditions as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius—means the 27,000 cold-chain points that India currently has could be grossly inadequate to cover the end-to-end journey of a vaccine: lab, truck, warehouse, hospital, the person to be vaccinated.

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There would expectedly be more imponderables lurking over our quest for a Covid vaccine, including whether the one discovered and approved would require a single dose or double. By one estimate, the world would need 15 billion doses in case the vaccine requires a double shot. Producing that many doses would take us years—at least until 2024—at current capacity. All these and more bring us to the moot question:  when will you or I get the vaccine? We seek to find an answer in this iss­ue’s cover story by talking to a range of experts. While the likelihood of a Covid vaccine has never looked this bright ever, doubts about when it would reach us are also real.

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Known Unknowns