If CPM retains power, it will be breaking Kerala’s 40- year old tradition of alternating governments every five years
True to its election slogan “LDF for Sure’, the exit polls have predicted a second term for the CPI (M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government in Kerala. At least five exit polls have given an edge to the LDF government with a clear majority in the 140 assembly seats in the state.
While the India Today-Axis My India exit poll gave 104- 120 seats to the LDF, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) came in second place with 20-36 seats, a significant fall from its 2016 tally. The BJP was expected to get 0-2 seats, it said.
A Republic TV –CNX exit polls gave 72-80 eats to the LDF while the Congress got 58-64 seats. It also forecasts BJP’s prospects in the range of 1- 5 seats. The BJP currently holds one seat in the state Assembly, which is won by the party's senior leader O Rajagopal from Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram. An aggregate of the five exit polls demonstrates a clear edge for the LDF with 85 seats, which ensures a comfortable majority for the coalition for a second stint.
If the numbers hold, the Pinarayi government will be creating history as Kerala has the reputation of rotating governments every five years between the two major fronts—LDF and the UDF. This tradition of four decades will be broken by the CPM if it retains power.
CPM leaders credit the government’s exemplary performance as the reason behind its comeback, as predicted by post and pre-poll surveys. CPI (M) politburo member M A Baby exudes confidence that the possibility of exit polls going wrong is a remote one. Speaking to Outlook, the former state minister also described exit poll results as a historic one.
“It would be a historic win for LDF. Kerala hasn’t repeated governments in the last 40 years. Now Kerala democracy is maturing and people recognize the secular and democratic positions taken by the LDF. They appreciated the pro-people and pro- active initiatives by the government during the deluge, Nipah virus, and Covid-19 pandemic. It also shows that voters have dismissed the negative campaign by the opposition,” he said.
If the polls come true, it will be a huge setback for Congress, which desperately needs a win given its waning influence in other states. It’s a much-needed victory for Rahul Gandhi as a Parliamentarian from the Wayanad constituency. A debacle doesn’t augur well for both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, who has actively campaigned in the state.
The one-month-long election campaign has also seen a fierce battle between the three principal players in the fray— the LDF, the UDF, and the BJP.
The exit poll surveys point to the popularity of the Pinarayi government especially among women and youth, in implementing welfare schemes, the LDF had mostly built up its campaign along those lines. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s image as a crisis manager in the face of adverse situations such as floods, the Nipah virus, and the pandemic has helped the party garner support from underprivileged sections the society. However, CPM’s campaign, which entirely revolved around Vijayan had also invited criticism from many quarters. The opposition has also been relentless in its attack against the government on alleged corruption charges such as gold smuggling cases and others.
Detractors also say that if the party gets a second term in power, the experience of West Bengal and Tripura will be repeated. In tune with the criticisms, Congress Working Committee member A.K Antony says that if the LDF government returns, it will lead to “destruction”
“We have learned our lessons and people have also been observing that what is happening in West Bengal. The disastrous impact of Left removed is being felt now,” says Baby. The election will also determine BJP’s future course in the state as it is looking to expand its footprint for the past many years. The party is fervently hoping for the victory of its star candidate metro man turned politician E Sreedharan this time.
The exit poll results will be a huge disappointment for the BJP, which ran a high octane campaign in the state with many central leaders descending in the state. Its star-studded campaign included Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitaram among other ministers. During the campaign, BJP state president K Surendran expressed confidence that the party will get 30- 35 this time. With the exit polls predicting only single digits for the BJP, it seems that Kerala will remain as a jinxed state for the saffron party.
While the India Today survey talks about how UDF is losing its core base of minority votes to the LDF, the high voltage campaigns on communal lines undertaken by the parties illustrate the trend. Campaigns also turned vicious on many occasions after Congress and BJP took up contentious issues of Sabarimala women entry and ‘Love jihad’ as the main plank.
With all the political fronts trying to appease minority communities—mainly Christian and Muslims into their fold, even a minor swing will be a decisive factor, as the exit polls point out. The BJP has warmed up to church leaders by volunteering to intervene in a tussle between two church groups. Time will only tell whether the efforts have paid off or not. Over to May 2.