Solo ‘Chalo’ In 2025?

A decade is a long time in pol­­itics. From 2010, when Nitish Kumar was loathe to sharing stage with then Guj­­arat chief minister Narendra Modi, to 2020, when he quickly winded up his speech at a political rally, and told the restless crowd, hands folded, “I know you have come here to listen to aadarniya pradhan mantriji,” the BJP has come a long way.

Modi did not campaign in Bihar in 2010, as Nitish was in a position to dictate terms. This time, a much-diminished JD(U) leader seemed desperate as he played second fiddle to Modi, sharing the stage at 12 rallies, allowing the Prime Minister to power the alliance to victory. The saffron party has emerged as the indisputable senior partner, winning 74 seats to JD(U)’s 43, with growing speculation within the BJP about how long it will humour Nitish Kumar with the chief ministership.

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With the Bihar results, the BJP has won its first electoral test after the COVID-19 pandemic, as has the soft-­­spoken party president J.P. Nadda in his maiden electoral battle, having stepped into Amit Shah’s imposing boots. It is now evident that Modi continues to hold sway over people’s emotions. Any talk of mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis, mishandling of the post-lockdown labour migration or the prevailing economic distress in the country has failed to make a dent on his image, as the PM remains the most stable factor in the BJP’s electoral politics—maybe somewhat disproportionately. Party leaders now hope that Modi’s magnetism will help them breach the eastern fastness of West Bengal.

Modi himself seems to be battle ready for Bengal, as he gave a call to arms during the celebrations organised for the Bihar victory at the party HQ in Delhi on November 11. Without naming Ben­­gal, he said that BJP workers were being attacked and killed in “some parts of the country by those who cannot fight with us democratically”.  The “dance of death” does not work in a dem­­ocracy, Modi said. “I don’t have to warn them. The job will be done by vot­­ers. Nob­­ody gets votes by creating fear of death. I tell them to read the wri­­­ting on the wall,” a pumped-up Modi said, mak­­ing it clear that the party will not res­­t on its laurels. It is still in election mode.  

BJP leaders and political experts agree that Modi carried the day for the NDA in Bihar, and is eager for a fight in Mamata Banerjee territory. Political analyst and academic Manisha Priyam says that the Bihar win will definitely have a psychological impact on the 2021 election in nei­­g­­hbouring Bengal, barely six months away. She believes ‘Modi magic’ may work there too. “He is a competent, natural leader and is seen as someone without a personal agenda,” she says.

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While Bengal may be high on the party’s priority list, with home minister Amit Shah personally launching the seize-Bengal campaign, BJP leaders have been diligently working on elections in Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, states that are scheduled to go to the polls simultaneously with Bengal.

“The BJP works relentlessly, moving from one state to another. Among all the states going to polls, Bengal is the biggest challenge for the BJP. While the party takes all elections seriously, all states pose a different challenge. With Assam, the party has to retain it; in Tamil Nadu, it has to make its presence felt in a strong manner as in Kerala, where winning even eight to ten seats will be a breakthrough for the party,” explains political analyst and psephologist Sanjay Kumar.

He also believes that Modi remains the heavy lifter for the BJP. “Nitish’s popularity had waned with a strong anti-incumbency mood against him. The Mahagathbandhan was getting a strong response on the ground. Modi’s rallies helped in energising the cadre and also the party’s support base. His presence easily added 10-15 seats to the NDA’s tally,” he tells Outlook.

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Its partnership with the JD(U) gave the BJP time to reconfigure the politics of the state, and be in a position where it may not need Nitish or his party. According to Kumar, this is probably the last election that the BJP fought with JD(U) as a partner or with a strong regional party in the state. The results have shown that survival of the BJP in Bihar does not depend upon its alliance with the JD(U). “I don’t see BJP allying with anyone in the 2025 elections. Either the party will contest alone or may tie up with smaller regional parties, like in Uttar Pradesh,” he says.

The BJP’s strategy, ever since it first came to power at the Centre in 2014 with full majority, has been to be in a position where it can establish its hegemony, state after state, preferably without needing an ally. While Priyam believes the time may come soon when the BJP doesn’t need allies, Sanjay Kumar says that it will carefully calculate its options before going it alone in a state where it has allies. “In Punjab, for example, it is not in a position to contest alone for another 10-15 years. In states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala too it will need allies till it can establish some kind of a base there,” he says.

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Not just in Bihar, the party’s showing in bypolls in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pra­­desh, Karnataka, Manipur, Telang­ana and Gujarat has also been to the satisfaction of the leadership. Modi congratulated party workers for exp­­a­­nding the footprint of the party across India. “We had two seats, and ran the party from two rooms. Now we have presence in the entire country—from Kutch in the west to Manipur in the east, from UP to southern states like Karnataka and Telangana—and in everyone’s heart,” Modi said in victory speech.

A party leader says that the victories are all the sweeter as most of them have come at the cost of the Congress. The continued free fall of the Congress is another big takeaway from the Bihar election results and the bypolls. The results have made it clear that the Con­­gress’s poor showing in Bihar pulled the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan down, and arguably robbed the alliance of a victory that was so tantalisingly close.

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Modi took a potshot at the Congress too, saying that “a major national party has over the decades reduced itself to a family-run party”. He added that such parties are holding back the country and are a threat to democracy. According to him, voters would throw out such parties and only elect those who work for the development of the country.

Senior BJP leader and Rajya Sabha MP Vinay Sahasrabuddhe says that election results, including the bypolls, have shown that only performance matters, irrespective of issues related to caste, class and community. “It is clear that people want politics of development and performance. The grammar of Indian politics is changing,” he says.

Indeed, the new political grammar seems to be the reason for the unexpected victory of NDA in Bihar, beating 15 years of anti-incumbency. General secretary of Bihar BJP, Devesh Kumar, says everyone came together to vote for the NDA as it got votes of the EBCs, upper castes, even from the Paswan community and women. “Schemes like post-Covid distribution of free ration—the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY)—went down well with people, especially women. As did other central projects of giving gas connections, opening bank accounts and direct benefit transfers,” he says.

The exit polls possibly failed to gauge the impact of the central schemes—the BJP’s leveraging of the power of JAM—Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhar and Mobile (connectivity)—as it calls them collectively. “It is JAM and more central schemes that are bringing about change in the political landscape of the country. Most of them have empowered women of households and they go unnoticed,” says BJP general secretary and Bihar in-charge Bhupendra Yadav. The impact, he adds, will be seen in more states, cutting across region, caste and religion. It is these women—the silent voters—that PM Modi referred to in his speech.

“The voice of this ‘silent voter’ is now being heard by all. The BJP has a big base of them, and they are women voters. Women are seeing the work we are doing. I bow in humility to all mothers, sisters and daughters,” says Yadav.

After women, the next group on BJP’s target is the disgruntled youth, who are believed to have gone with Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan. This was more than evident in PM Modi’s shout-out to them to come and work with the BJP for a better tomorrow.