Militant Attacks Surge In Jammu: A New Front In Kashmir's Conflict?

The situation in Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 is now in its fifth year, and despite substantial political changes in the UT government, there is no evidence that maladministration, atrocities, and militant attacks have abated.

While the BJP-led central government is busy claiming that the abrogation of Article 370 has led to an end to armed rebellion in the area, the death toll in the past few months stands at more than 20 including civilians, members of the armed forces, suspected militants.

On October 5, 2022, Union Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah visited Baramulla, Kashmir. In his speech, he said, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not accept terrorism and will work to wipe it out from the valley. PM Modi has nearly rid Jammu and Kashmir of terrorism.” Whereas, in April 2023, Narendra Modi visited the region where he stated that it is indeed a proud moment that democracy has reached the grassroots of Kashmir. Meanwhile, as India falls farther down the Human Rights Index and the world prepares to commemorate the 75th Human Rights Day on December 10, the BJP-led central government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears weak on the Kashmir issue.

On July 8, five Indian Army men were killed when terrorists attacked a convoy in Badnota hamlet, 124 km from Kathua in Jammu. The incident also took place on the anniversary of the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen operative Burhan Wani, who was killed in an encounter in south Kashmir on July 8, 2016. This is the fourth terror event in the state in 48 hours, and the most recent in a string of strikes in recent months, particularly in the Jammu region, establishing a new trend of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir that is moving to the Rajouri-Poonch area.

Similarly, a group of militants attacked a bus in Reasi district on June 9, killing nine pilgrims and injuring 33 others, the same day Prime Minister Narendra Modi was taking oath for a third term. This attack on the pilgrims marked a new low. This region has been peaceful for more than two decades, having been a centre of insurgency in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This was brought under control in 2003 by Operation Sarp Vinash, which was followed by local assistance, particularly from the Gujjar-Bakerwal community.

However, according to a RTI petition, the Congress-led UPA government saw as many as 158 local youths take up guns and join militant organisations between 2010 and 2014. The number of locals joining militancy in 2014 was 53, rising to 66 in 2015 before reaching 88 in 2016. In 2017, the number increased to 127, and in 2018, 199 local youth joined militancy, the most significant number in a decade, before dropping to 114 in 2019. In 2020, the number increased to 185, and 143 youth joined various militant outfits in 2021. According to the most recent reports, 75 youths joined militancy from January to June 2022.

Will the effectiveness of any new attempt to develop a political process be determined by the government's ability to end the abuses that have alienated and demoralised vast sections of the population, regardless of whether they accept or oppose the militants' demands? This is perhaps a matter worth discussing and reflecting upon again in the future.