Navigating Crossroads

Like other regions around the Himalayan arc, Uttarakhand Himalaya is vulnerable to multiple hazards that include earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, forest fires, avalanches and droughts, but unlike other regions Uttarakhand Himalaya, which is located in the seismic gap of 1905 Kangara and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes, has not witnessed any major seismic activity since 1st September, 1803 Garhwal earthquake.

From the perspective of a disaster manager, this region is faced with twin challenges. Firstly, prolonged seismic calm has led to complacency, and both masses and government have become casual towards seismic safety, which is in fact the biggest threat not only for this region but also for the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains extending up to the National Capital Region (NCR). Secondly, largely due to their frequent occurrence, particularly during the monsoon period, the disaster management authorities seem to have diverted their entire attention towards landslide and flash flood management.

The shifting sands of disaster: In the last few years landslide and flash flood incidences have not remained confined to monsoon period. Devastating Varuavrat and Ramolsari landslides of 2003 and 2005 took place respectively in post- and pre-monsoon periods. In 2021, Dhauliganga valley was flooded during winter season while Kumaun was devastated by landslides and floods in the month of October after the recession of the monsoon. In 2023 Joshimath witnessed ground subsidence at an alarmingly fast pace in the month of January.

Dwindling freshwater reserves: This change in the pattern of disasters is often attributed to climate change, whose real and mammoth but often ignored impact is on the freshwater reserves that are dwindling fast with the recession of glaciers. It needs to be appreciated that the water of the Himalayan rivers sustains people as also agricultural and industrial activities in the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains and depleted water availability is to adversely affect electricity generation, drinking water availability and agro-industrial operations, besides having a negative impact on quality of life and sanitation for a large population of our nation.

Unpredictable Rainfall: A New Normal: Even though average rainfall may not have reduced significantly, both spatial and temporal distribution in the region has changed enormously, with heavy rainfall incidences becoming increasingly common. Together with this both winter and pre-monsoon rainfall have become less and erratic.

Winter rainfall in the region is often delayed and this results in reduced retention of snow in the higher reaches resulting in negative mass balance of glaciers. This has adverse impact on glacier health, groundwater recharge and productivity of horticultural crops that are deprived of the required chilling hours, and are subject to early flowering. Absence of pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormal heat and forest fires.

Soaring Temperatures: A Burning Issue: Erratic pre-monsoon rainfall results in abnormally high temperatures not only in the plains but also in the higher elevations and this is often accompanied by forest fires.

Meteorologists attribute this steep rise in temperature to prolonged dry spells and less precipitation as the pre-monsoon rainfall activity remained almost absent and erratic.

Increased Extreme Rainfall Frequency: Apart from the rainfall getting increasingly erratic there has been a sharp increase in heavy rainfall incidences resulting catastrophic flood and landslide incidences as were experienced in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2019 and 2024.

Forest Fires: According to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report high mountain areas are witnessing an increase in the number of very warm days/nights while the number of extremely cold days/nights is decreasing.

Despite forest fires often being man-made, there does exist a direct relationship between extreme heat and forest fires. In Uttarakhand, the forest fire season typically begins in late March and lasts for around 11 weeks.

Black Carbon: Black carbon is emitted into the atmosphere due to incomplete combustion of fossil fuels in motor vehicles and aircraft exhausts, bio-fuel and biomass. It absorbs more light and emits infra-red radiation that increases the temperature, thus facilitating fast melting of glaciers. Forest fires as also a large number of tourist vehicles reaching the higher Himalayan reaches are a major source of black carbon in the region.

Unrestricted Tourism: A doubled Edged Sword: Facilitated by wider roads and improved air connectivity tourists and pilgrims are reaching the higher Himalaya destinations in large numbers. Uncontrolled tourist influx has resulted in unplanned construction of tourism related infrastructure in eco-sensitive zones, waste generation and improper disposal.

Depleting Reservoir Capacity: On an average, every km of new road constructed in the hills results in 18 thousand cu m of debris and felling of 50 trees. Every year approximately 800–1000 km new road is constructed in Uttarakhand, which simply translates in to 1.5–2.0 crore cu m of debris and felling of 40–50 thousand trees.

Despite sincere efforts of planned disposal of this debris, significant portion reaches the river bed from where it is ultimately transported to the reservoirs, thereby having a negative impact on their productive life. Coupled with reduced discharge of the rivers due to glacier recession, this could herald a major energy crisis that is to hard hit industrial and other economic activities in the state.

Disaster Management in Uttarakhand: Uttarakhand became the first state to have a separate Department for Disaster Management. At the same time, the state set up an autonomous institution—Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre (DMMC)—for disaster management related mass awareness, capacity building and policy advocacy. As provided by the Disaster Management Act 2005, Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority (USDMA) was subsequently setup to manage all disaster management related affairs in the state.

Way Forward: Uttarakhand stands at the crossroads. The challenges posed by climate change and its impact on disaster management are immense, but these are not insurmountable. Bold and decisive action is therefore needed to build a resilient future.

Stringent Emission Norms: Stricter emission standards for vehicles and industries are essential to curb pollution and reduce black carbon emissions. This has to be accompanied by suitable monitoring and compliance mechanism together with stringent punitive measures.

Eco Tax: Implementing an eco-tax on tourists and pilgrims could generate revenue for environmental conservation and sustainable development initiatives, and in the long run it is to result in a win-win situation for all the stakeholders.

Controlled Tourism: Limiting the number of tourists and pilgrims in ecologically sensitive high-altitude areas is crucial to protect the fragile ecosystem. The focus should shift from maximising visitor numbers to promoting sustainable tourism practices.

Forest Fire: Strengthening the Forest Department and investing in fire prevention and control measures are crucial to protect the forests and reduce black carbon emissions.

Debris Disposal: Stricter and universally applicable regulations on debris disposal are needed to prevent environmental damage and protect water resources.

Revitalising USDMA: It needs to be understood that rather than policing, disaster risk reduction is all about empowering and making masses aware to ensure voluntary compliance of disaster safety measures. Empowering communities and promoting disaster preparedness being the key to building resilience, the USDMA needs to refocus its efforts on capacity building, mass awareness and policy advocacy, and ensure that the summary of all the studies carried out by it are aggressively disseminated in plain and simple Hindi through various modes. Qualified, trained and experienced manpower needs to be engaged for this, and adequate measures be taken to keep them motivated, engaged and dedicated.

Call to Action: Addressing the challenges of climate change and disaster management in Uttarakhand requires a collective effort. The government, communities, and individuals—all have a role to play. It is time for Uttarakhand to lead the way in building a sustainable and resilient future for all. The impacts of climate change are already being felt in Uttarakhand. The time for complacency is over. It is time for bold action, innovative solutions and a shared commitment to protect this beautiful and vulnerable region. The future of Uttarakhand, and indeed the entire Indo-Gangetic plains, depends on it.

Piyoosh Rautela is a Former Executive Director of Disaster Mitigation and Management Centre, Uttarakhand