There might be a slight swing here or there in the Gujarat assembly elections, as the contest has become triangular this time. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is in the fray, challenging the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress for the first time, may or may not win a seat, but it will definitely cut the votes of its rivals.
No One Can Beat BJP In Gujarat For Historical Reasons As Much As Their Political Cunning
With the RSS firmly entrenched among the youth of the state and the Congress party remaining weak, there is no third force which could turn the tables on the BJP, writes political analyst Achyut Yagnik
The AAP has a presence in southern Gujarat, especially the areas around Surat and Saurashtra. When we talk about Gujarat, it should be kept in mind that Kutch and Saurashtra were earlier separate from Gujarat. All three were united due to the formation of a new Gujarat state on the basis of linguistic identity. Now, both the Congress and BJP will suffer a little because of the presence of the AAP in the fray. Nevertheless, given the current scenario, it looks like the BJP will remain in power, as before.
One of the major reasons for the BJP’s continuance in power is that the Gujarati population has been Hinduised in both urban and rural areas during the last few decades. The caste division in the state is huge. For example, there are 84 subcastes among Brahmins. Rapid urbanisation has blurred these divisions and loosened the ties between caste groups.
Now, people associate themselves within the realm of modern religious sects. The caste affiliations of the past no longer exist in Gujarat. There were caste groups in rural areas. In cities too, caste groups worked on the basis of regional identity and locale. But the process of rapid urbanisation has worked to snap these ties in the last few decades creating a sense of alienation in the migrant population. The support structure that those groups based on primitive identities provided to the people were dismantled.
Religious sects came into picture and filled the void. Swaminarayan Sampradaya and Swadhyaya Sampradaya are among the dominant sects operating in Gujarat. These sects provide a sort of social support structure in cities and suburban areas. They have even infiltrated the villages through temples etc. For example, a person who has migrated to a city will face some problems related to everyday life. This is where these sects enter his life and create a sense of belonging by supporting him in cash and kind. The cooperative spirit that sustained coexistence in caste groups earlier now operates within sects. This has laid the foundation for the BJP’s vote.
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Gujarat, Kutch and Saurashtra have historically been three separate entities. Kutch has been associated with Sindh. That relationship ended after the formation of Pakistan. Pastoral communities were earlier found along the Indus River. Now they have spread to the Narmada and Godavari plains. Saurashtra has been comparatively more feudal than Gujarat due to the existence of princely states in the past. The lower region was called Gujarat. Through the re-organisation of states on a linguistic basis, all three were united to form the state of Gujarat. However, one thing in common among all three can be called the mercantile ethos or mercantile spirit. That is why the importance of trade increased exponentially in Gujarat.
The history of the mercantile spirit is very old. Bombay has a trading history of only 300 years, but the East India Company first came to Surat. Even before Surat, the trade route used to go through Cambay (Khambhat). For a long time, the sea has been inundating the landmass. Every year seven to 12 kilometres of land is going into the sea. This is the reason why the trading hub of Cambay ceased to exist. Otherwise, once upon a time the trade relationship with other countries was so strong that ‘Lanka ni laadi, ghogha nu var’ (Girl from Sri Lanka and boy from Ghogha) became a popular saying.
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Ghogha is a place near Bhavnagar in Saurashtra. After Cambay, Ghogha emerged as a major trading centre. The trading centre of Bhavnagar developed much later. Besides, Kutch remained connected to global trade through the sea for thousands of years. It is this traditional business spirit that binds the three different cultures together.
Later, when the pace of urbanisation increased, the communal creed became stronger. Compared to other states, Gujarat comes second in terms of urbanisation after Maharashtra, where 42 percent of the area has become urban. This urbanisation, the spread of Hindu sects and the traditional mercantile sentiment have combined to spread the political narrative of Hindutva as these sects speak of fundamental Hinduism. This fundamentalism is more ritualistic than ideological in nature. There is no talk of the Upanishads here. They don’t even talk about Shad Darshan of Hindu philosophy. Their Hinduism stands against it. These people propagate a special kind of spirituality centred on ritualistic mannerisms. The BJP is getting a direct benefit out of it.
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Going by political history, things started changing after the 1969 riots in Gujarat. Gradually, the anti-Muslim feeling spread among the people. It is also to be noticed that before the BJP, the Jana Sangh got only two seats in the whole of India - one from Gwalior where Atal Bihari Vajpayee won and the other from Mehsana, where AK Patel won. The political rise of the RSS in Gujarat started from there. The electoral equation of KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) created by the Congress became irrelevant after that.
After 1980, the BJP removed the ‘M’ from KHAM and re-engineered the term by adding the OBC communities into it. In the last few decades, the BJP has given leadership positions to marginalised communities in its affiliated organisations such as RSS, VHP, Bajrang Dal, Durga Vahini, Bharat Vikas Parishad and Seva Bharati at the district, block and village levels. On the other hand, the local level leadership in the Congress and its affiliated organisations remained with the upper castes. For the first time, the deprived castes got a chance to lead, which became a very important factor in strengthening the BJP.
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Muslims came out of small villages and migrated to nearby big cities. The few who stayed back initially also came out later due to the social insecurity
Another process took place simultaneously after the 1969 riots. Muslims came out of small villages and migrated to nearby big cities. The few who stayed back initially also came out later due to the social insecurity. As a result, no Muslims were left in the villages. For example, not a single Muslim will be found in Sardarpura of Mehsana today. They all shifted to Himmatnagar after the 2002 riots. They gave their land to someone in the village. Now, they go there from time to time and bring their share of the produce. This has impacted the character of Ahmedabad city too. In Juhapura, a Muslim ghetto, all classes of Muslims live there, from the working class to the educated. It was not like this earlier. Ahmedabad was a region of cloth mills. The mill workers lived in the housing societies near the mill. Their societies shared walls. Dalits, Muslims, OBCs all lived side by side. At least there was a working unity in each section. The city’s nature changed after the textile mills closed from the 1980s onwards. A total of 12 chimneys are still visible today, stretching from Naroda to Ahmedabad, along the Sabarmati. Trade unions, like the Mazoor Mahajan Sabha, are not yet obsolete. The Gandhians, Leftists and Socialists who once used to thrive here are no more. All those structures collapsed over the last four decades. An immediate reason behind the political strength of the BJP is the direct transfer of Rs 6,000 to the bank accounts of marginal farmers every year. Even though this amount may seem small, nobody was getting even a single paisa earlier. Moreover, people at the village level faced a lot of difficulties getting their documents processed and submitted to the authorities. This has become easy as all governance has gone digital. Both the Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister are Gujarati. This creates a sense of pride among Gujaratis to see that their own people are running Delhi. That is why they vote for the BJP.
In the last few decades, the association of the youth with the RSS has also increased. This can be gauged from the number of RSS shakhas that have cropped up in the last few years in Gujarat. The Congress had nothing to offer to the youth as the influence of the Seva Dal gradually waned in comparison to the rise of the Sangh. The leadership of the Congress party is also a big reason. It has been continuously weakening since 1985. The present leadership is also weak. It has no understanding of the grassroots. Since the Congress remains weak and there is no third force, the BJP continues to be in power. The AAP has entered the , but apart from cutting votes, there is not much hope for it this time.
(This appeared in the print edition as "Historical Juggernaut")
As told to Abhishek Srivastava
Achyut Yagnik is a political commentator with the Centre for Social Knowledge and Action (SETU), Ahmedabad
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