Principles Be Damned

THE mushrooming of regional par- ties in India—with the exception of Tamil Nadu, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab—has largely be en a phenomenon of the '80s. But of late, region-based parties have begun influencing national politics in a big way and major political parties are accepting them as dominant allies in the game of electoral partnerships. They are no more the political off-shoots of regional and parochial interests fuelled mainly by the Centre's lopsided concern for their development, but essentially the true representatives of regional aspirations.

A beleaguered P.V. Narasimha Rao sees in corruption-tainted J. Jayalalitha, AIADMK supremo, a saviour who is worth keeping on his side despite the revolt by state Congress leaders. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ropes in Bansi Lal, one of the vil-lians of the Emergency's excesses, and ties the bond of friendship with his Haryana Vikas Party. The Left parties have joined hands with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), which spearheaded the Assam movement against 'foreign nationals'—a movement the Left had once quite clearly described as anti-national and parochial.

Of course, there are several other tie-ups bound together by some common interests—in Maharashtra, a rabid Hindutva cause keeps the BJP and the Shiv Sena together; in national politics, the Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party and the Left parties have more or less stuck to each other because of their strong anti-Congress and anti-BJP sentiments. But in most other alliances, the binding thread is almost invisible, putting a big question mark on their viability and durability.

"There is nothing in common between the Congress and the AIADMK. Jayalalitha has indulged in rowdyism, corruption and all other means to defame Congress and its leaders and the Congress alliance with such a party will not be acceptable to us," state Congress leader G.K. Moopanar is believed to have told Rao in a bid to dissuade him. But the Prime Minister decided otherwise. As Congress workers ransacked the party office in Madras and removed the party flag in protest against the alliance on March 28, Congress spokesman V.N. Gadgil summarily dismissed the hostile response: "It is an initial reaction and will soon subside".

Tamil Nadu: It is the the first state—besides Jammu and Kashmir—where two regional successor, Jayalalitha, contested the 1991 parties, the DMK and the AIADMK, have alter- Lok Sabha and assembly elections with nated in power since the late '60s after K. Congress help, capturing all the 39 Kamraj (the last Congress chief minister in Parliament and two-thirds of the assembly the state) and have made it a point to sup- seats. The ties soured after Jayalalitha port the national party in Parliament. The openly toed the BJP line on Ayodhya and the DMK stood by the minority Indira Gandhi Centre's subsequent probing of allegations government in 1969-71 and the arrange- of Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) ment continued till 1980. The AIADMK was a violations against the chief minister. But Janata Party ally in 1977-80. M.G. Ramachandran switched to the Congress after the Janata Party's disintegration. His successor, Jayalalitha, contested the 1991 Lok Sabha and assembly elections with Congress help, capturing all the 39 Parliament and two-thirds of the assembly seats. The ties soured after Jayalalitha openly toed the BJP line on Ayodhya and the Centre's subsequent probing of allegations of Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) violations against the chief minister. But come elections, and the two are together again with the AIADMK even agreeing to contest only 10 Lok Sabha seats—one less than last time—leaving 29 to the Congress.

Andhra Pradesh: In N.T. Rama Rao country, the filmstar-turned-politician emerged as a leader with his famous "Andhra pride" slogan in the '80s and remained a larger-than-life figure in politics till his death this January. Notwithstanding P.V. Narasimha Rao's victory with a record margin of over five lakhs in the 1991 November byelection to the Lok Sabha—albeit with NTR's help—the state has seen the rapid decline of the Congress. In the '91 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress polled only 37.04 per cent against the 50.9 per cent in the '89 elections. But it fared worst in the 1994 assembly elections when it got almost wiped out, winning only 25 of the 294 seats.

However, while the Congress and the BJP will go it alone, the Dal and its allies, the Left parties, have parted ways here—the Left will stand by Chandrababu Naidu but the Dal has opted for the Parvathi faction. In Lakshmi Parvathi's hit list figures the Congress—she is irked with Rao for engineering a split in the TDP even after NTR helped him out at Nandyal—and Naidu who dislodged NTR last year.

This confusing scenario has probably emboldened the BJP to field 22 candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, including party General Secretary N. Venkaiah Naidu from Hyderabad. A split in the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen—that will divide the Muslim vote—has also bolstered the BJP.

Assam: That elections often lead to strange alliances is evident in the last-minute tie-up between the CPI(M) and the AGP—about 50 CPI(M) activists were killed by the All Assam Students' Union, the AGP'S parent body, during the Assam agitation. But in the past five years, the Congress rule under Hiteswar Saikia has marginalised both the Left and the AGP. It has also seen a rise in the BJP's influence—something both parties have pledged to check. The Congress won 66 of the 126 assembly and most of the Lok Sabha seats in the last elections. But simultaneous assembly polls might be a major hurdle to the Congress' hopes of a comeback as the Muslims, who are a crucial factor in about 50 assembly constituencies, might opt for the new alliance given the Left's sympathetic attitude to the community in the past.

Maharashtra: The recent unification of eight Dalit factions under the Republican Party of India (RPI) and a possible alliance with the Left parties and the Janata Dal keeps the BJP-Sena combine together despite intermittent squabbles over a seat. The Sena was reluctant to allow sitting BJP MP Ram Kapse to stand from Thane—they have sorted out their differences over the other 47 Lok Sabha constituencies, with the Sena contesting 21 seats and the rest going to the BJP.

The equation, however, defies the spirit of understanding between the two partners under which the Sena was given 171 of the 288 assembly seats (nearly 60 per cent) last time. Says BJP General Secretary Pramod Mahajan: "We are prepared to accept their (the Sena's) demands. But there are limits." The combine has other things to ponder over. For one, the Muslims, who account for about 10 per cent of the electorate, are angry with the government for winding up the Srikrishna Commission probe on the Bombay riots, among other things.

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar: Having won 51 of the 85 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP expects a healthy haul even this time although the Hindutva wave is not so visible. But the Left parties prevailed upon both Laloo Prasad Yadav (Janata Dal) and Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samajwadi Party) that if they didn't tie up, it "will be of the biggest help to the BJP". Laloo did show an unexpected accommodative gesture by accepting just 16 seats, leaving the rest (69) to the SP and smaller allies, including the Left parties. Laloo abandoned his initial preference for an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj party (BSP) and Kanshi Ram, in retaliation, conceded 25 per cent tickets to the Muslims—who had voted for Yadavs in their respective states—to weaken the SP-JD alliance. But the alliance has left those hopeful for JD tickets disappointed. Some leaders led by state Dal President Ram Asray Varma quit in protest. With the Congress winning five seats in the '91 Lok Sabha polls and the subsequent split, only the Mulayam-led alliance poses a threat to the BJP. In Bihar, the BJP roped in the Samata Party, a splinter group of the JD, giving it 22 of the 54 seats—an answer to the JD-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh.

Punjab: A dejected Kanshi Ram, who does not conceal his aim to be the king-maker in this elections, has explored the possibility of a tie-up with the Congress (Tiwari) in Madhya Pradesh and TDP (NTR) in Andhra. To begin with, he has struck a deal with the Akali Dal(B) for four of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab.

While some of these alliances will survive, many are obviously aimed at short-term benefits while keeping future options open. The possibility of another round of readjustments immediately after the elections seem certain, especially in the event of a hung Parliament.