Revolving Door: India And China In The Maldives

With the victory of Mohamed Muizzu, the Progressive Alliance coalition candidate in Maldives, China is in and India out. Five years ago, exactly the opposite happened. The defeat of  Abdullah Yameen meant that China was out and the pro-India Ibrahim Solih was in. It’s been a ding-dong battle between Asian rivals in the Maldives, a country of strategic importance to India being literally in its backyard and barely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy an island in Lakshadweep and 300 nautical from India’s west coast. It is also near the busy sea lanes through which commercial vessels ply the Indian Ocean.

President-elect Muizzu had run his campaign on the India Out slogan, accusing his rival Ibrahim Solih of sacrificing the island nation’s sovereignty to India. "Obviously, it is a setback for India and a gain for China. We should see the big picture. Even in Sri Lanka which received significant financial support from India when China delayed assistance it still has a strong influence. Reportedly a Chinese warship might be visiting Sri Lanka soon. India needs to review its policy stance with both  Maldives and Sri Lanka,’’ says Ambassador K.P. Fabian.

India and China are competing for influence across India’s neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean region. They are major players in the island nation. The presidential campaign this time was dominated by India and China. Surprisingly, for an island state where local issues of sustainable development a rising ocean bed as well as the economy would have normally been in focus. But all this faded to the background as  India’s growing footprint in the archipelago during  President Solih’s tenure became the focal point of the opposition. Riding on the success of a social media hashtag  "India out,", that was initiated by activists in 2019.  

Much of the hate India campaign has to do with the fact that India at the request of Male had sent a Dornier aircraft to the government. The deal was in the making in 2016 but finalized in 2020. Under the agreement, India was to station 25 unarmed personnel to operate the aircraft and train Maldivian pilots and engineers to operate and maintain the aircraft. The defence personnel were to be under the command of the Maldives defence force. Yet this was projected by the opposition as comprising the island state’s sovereignty. 

Another deal that the opposition attacked was the Uthuru Thilafalhu (UTF) agreement by which India would help develop and maintain a coastguard harbour and dockyard in the island nation and provide professional, logistic and technical help for 15 years to Maldives to build and run it. A leaked version of the agreement claimed that the Indian military would be stationed here and Indian vessels and aircraft would have unrestricted access to the UTF. This was also effectively used by the opposition to accuse the Maldivian Democratic Party led by Solih of selling out to Big Brother India. 

The India Out hashtag took a massive political turn in 2020 when Yameen gave it political support and made the India Out campaign his own. Though the former president Yameen was in prison serving corruption charges, he continues to wield considerable political clout. One of the first acts of the newly elected president was to ensure that Yameen who is serving a 11-year prison term for corruption is allowed to return home and be placed under house arrest. It is only a matter of time before Yameen will be set free, after going through the legal process. Yameen was given a hero’s welcome home when he returned.

Initially, the Progressive Party of Maldives had declared Yameen as their presidential candidate. But when the Court declared that Yameen could not contest, Muizzu was nominated as the joint opposition candidate.

The India Out slogan played an important part in the defeat of incumbent Ibrahim Solih, but it was not just the hate campaign. There were rumblings within the Maldivian Democratic Party, with senior leader Nasheed breaking away from the MDP.

Solih’s defeat is a blow to India, considering New Delhi’s aims to restrict China in the Indian Ocean periphery. An anti-India government in Male is not just about Chinese presence but is also a breeding ground for Islamist forces. The largest number of recruits to the once militant Sunni Islamic group the ISIS from South Asia was reportedly from the Maldives.  

"When Yameen was President, India had a difficult time with China having a run on the island,’’ says Ambassador Rajiv Dogra. He went on to say that this time around, Muizzu had not bothered to cloak his antipathy towards India, running his campaign with India Out as a priority.

"We are not in a happy situation. China already has a listening post in Myanmar’s  Coco islands, and in Sri Lanka, China has a heavy presence using its debt diplomacy to coerce the government. Gwadar is Pakistan is controlled by China and now there is Maldives, it is a string of pearls around India,’’ adds Dogra. He thinks India needs to  Muizzu has already made clear his intention of sending off the small Indian detachment stationed on the island. “The people have told us that they don't want foreign military here,” he said, without mentioning India. He has vowed to do this on his first day at work on November 17. Many Indian projects are also likely to be rolled back much like what was done to Chinese schemes by outgoing President Ibrahim Solih.  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first world leader to congratulate the new president.  Muizzu’s party the  People’s National Congress is pro-China like Yameen’s.

When Solih took over from Yameen in 2018, New Delhi’s stocks rose dramatically. During his five-year term, he shelved many of the Chinese projects under BRI. The Free Trade Agreement between Maldives and China signed just before the 2018 elections was also scrapped. Instead, the government adopted an India First policy and defence cooperation between Delhi and Male thrived.  

The India First policy will either be scrapped or remain on paper. Five years is a long time and much can happen before Muizzu’s term is completed.