L'affaire Dera Sacha Sauda only highlights the terrorist calculus in Punjab: that at some stage, a convergence of political incompetence, an emotive public issue, and public discontent will abruptly catalyse a resurgence of terror.
The current protests and demonstrations on the Dera issue have very limited potential for disruption within Punjab. The Khalistani cause has lost whatever little support it ever had among the larger population of thestate and is periodically revived only by a handful of externally supported extremist leaders. Radical recruiters have found it nigh impossible to secure new volunteers to the cause, and much'terrorist' activity over the past years has, in fact, been executed by mercenaries, often non-Sikh criminal elements. It is, nevertheless, useful to recall that the early Khalistani terrorism emerged in the end 1970s out of a protracted campaign against another allegedly'heretic' group, the Nirankaris, by radical Sikhs, including the Damdami Taksal under the leadership of Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale. Bhindranwale led the terrorists till his death in Operation Blue Star in 1984, and his rise reflected a familiar pattern of opportunism and manipulation of cynical party politics that is even today visible in Punjab.
April 28, 2006: At least eight persons are wounded in a bomb blast that occurred inside a bus carrying 45 passengers in the Jalandhar bus terminus. Subsequently, on June 18, 2006, Satnam Singh alias Satta, a terrorist of the Pakistan-based Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF), confessed during interrogation that he carried out the bomb blasts, on the instructions of theoutfit's chief, Ranjit Singh Neeta.
March 21, 2006: Four BKI terrorists are arrested from Chandigarh, and one kilogram of RDX, arms and ammunition are seized from their possession. The four, Sukhwinder Singh alias Sukhi alias Bullet, Dilbagh Singh, Ranjit Singh, all residents of Ropardistrict in Punjab and Balbir Singh alias Nepali, a resident of Solan district in Himachal Pradesh, were in contact with other BKI activists and were one of the several modules raised by the outfit for the revival of terrorism.
March 20, 2006: Paramjeet Singh Bheora, 'head of operations' of the BKI in India, and two of his accomplices, while planning to set up base in Delhi, are arrested by the Special Cell of the Delhi Police near G T Karnal road. Four kilograms of RDX, three detonators, one remote control device along with a wireless set, one timer, three pistols, 39 live cartridges and three fired cartridges are recovered from them.
Such incidents have a continuous history since 1993, with repeated attempt to revive the terror in Punjab. Between 1995 and 2005, at least 100 civilians were killed in terrorist violence in Punjab--overwhelmingly in bomb attacks on soft targets. Well over a thousand kilograms and a large arsenal of small weapons has been recovered over this period, as Pakistan-backed Khalistani terrorists continue to be arrested on a regular basis.
ISYF-Rode: Lakhbir Singh Rode, the nephew of Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, is the coordinator of this group, and has links with Islamist terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba. Rode played a major role in shaping the Khalistan-Kashmir International, a joint platform for strikes by Sikh and Islamist extremist in the aftermath of the setback received by terrorists on the K2M (Khalistan-Kashmir-Muslim militancy) front, which was the pioneer platform for joint strikes by Punjab militants, J&K militants and Islamist terrorist elements in the early 1990s. ISYF under Lakhbir Singh Rode has its branches spread over a dozen countries in western Europe and Canada.
Khalistan Zindabad Force (KZF): Ranjit Singh Neeta, hailing from Poonch area in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), is the head of this outfit, which had an operational alliance with ISYF & BKI in the past, is now operating independently.Neeta's associates were responsible for a series of explosions in running trains and buses in Punjab, Delhi, Haryana & J&K. Neeta emerged as a leading terrorist not only in the context of Punjab militancy but developed operational alliances with splinter groups of J&K militants. Neeta is presently very active and transferred a number of consignments of explosives, small weapons, ammunition and fake currency to his associates in Punjab over the years. With an estimated dozen-odd active associates in Punjab, he retains some striking potential, and has executed a number of strikes in thestate, including the Jalandhar bus terminus blasts in April 2006 and the Goraya railway track explosions near Goraya in January 2004.
Dal Khalsa International: Headed by Gajinder Singh 'Hijacker', tried to float a joint group with J&K militants, indications of which surfaced in 1997-98. This group is one of the most active, with substantial funding available through Khalistani elements abroad. Kanwarpal Singh Bittu remains DalKhalsa's principal point man in Punjab with excellent contacts with disruptive and subversive elements in thestate and beyond.
The Council of Khalistan, represented by Balbir Singh Sandhu, has probably the longest stay in Pakistan.
Significantly, Canada deported a BKI terrorist, Bachan Singh Sogi, in July 2006, and in early June 2007, the Punjab Police traced the main conspirators of the May 22, 2005, Delhi cinema hall blasts, to Germany; the Chief Metropolitan Magistrate at New Delhi subsequently issued letters rogatory seeking information from German authorities relating to Satnaam Singh, the son-in-law of BKI chief Wadhawa Singh, his wife, Sukhwinder Kaur, and another woman, indentified as Kanwaljit Kaur.
The activities of these various diaspora organisations have been sustained and continuous. Among the most prominent of recent manifestations were large meetings and demonstrations at Frankfurt and in Birmingham. On May 6, 2007, a meeting organised by the Council of Khalistan at Birmingham, UK, was attended by the habitual India-baiter in the UK Parliament, Lord Nazir Ahmed, and by'representatives' or a number of other groups including the obscure 'Tehrik-e-Kashmir' represented by Muhammad Ghalib.
On June 6, 2007, similarly, a rally was successfully organised at Frankfurt (part of a series planned on that date for Chicago, San Francisco, Vancouver, Surrey, Frankfurt, Sydney and London--the other rallies made little impression) by a combination ofdiaspora groups under the banner of the "German Sikh Community", which sought, among other things, strong action against the Dera Sacha Sauda and its "criminal Baba" Gurmit Ram Rahim Singh.
Such 'events' are regularly stage managed by extremist diaspora groups in close coordination with the ISI, which uses Pakistani embassies and consulates in various countries as contact points with anti-India extremist elements, not only for propaganda activities and fund generation, but, crucially, for recruitment. A trickle of volunteers continues to be diverted by these radicaldiaspora organisations into Pakistani training camps, building the 'reserves' that are to be activated when conditions become'favourable'.
Ajai Sahni is Editor, SAIR; Executive Director, Institute for ConflictManagement. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal