The Confidence Man

Aglimpse of the ticking chess brain that is Amit Shah—one that plots out all possible moves, three moves ahead—comes through with stray anecdotes about the otherwise inscrutable man. When the Opp­osi­tion announced Meira Kumar’s name to fight NDA candidate Ram Nath Kovind in the Presidential elections, Amit Shah smiled. “If I was in their place, I’d have fielded an OBC candidate. It would have at least ens­ured an interesting contest,” he is reported to have told his aides.

Before the final decision, Shah had mapped out the whole chessboard, all the viable strategies the Opposition could adopt, even thought of an effective counter-move for them! What they came up with—yet another predictable response, countering a Dalit with a Dalit, albeit a woman—did not pass muster in his reckoning. On the other side, the Congress was spearheading the Opposition efforts, but had to wait for Rahul Gandhi to return from his Roman holiday. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah were already reaching out to everyone to try and secure a winning margin for Kovind.

The episode captures the default state of India’s political ­arena today—the Opposition in a shambles, fumbling for the right path, pitted against the consummate strategic skills of the BJP president from Gujarat. This aspect of positivity has bled back into the party. As Shah completes three eventful years at the helm—just a few months behind the government—a new BJP has taken wings under him too. A cohesive political mac­hine that is confident, and unapologetic about aggressively pursuing its ambition of colouring the entire country saffron.

That losing is not an option for Shah is obvious from the way he has spearheaded the BJP through a series of difficult state elections. It’s been hectic: there were controversies to wade through, and some tough decisions by the Modi government to be interpreted positively for the public. Besides, there was the organisational overhaul. Shah has expanded the BJP’s membership from two crore to 11 crore, making it the largest political party in the world. That makes for a vast network of cadres down to the booth level, all feeling empowered and motivated, and able to touch base with the last man on the ground. This is what has helped him keep a hawk-eye on BJP-ruled states. Regular interaction and feedback helps prevent anti-incumbe­ncy, the party also carries out a survey in all 542 Lok Sabha seats every six months to assess the mood. “The reaction to iss­ues like GST is gauged, and candidates for local elections or any byelections decided based on the findings. It helps us identify weak pockets, so remedial action can be taken. Local booth workers play an important role in this,” reveals a party leader.

While this giant organisational machinery hums with activ­ity, Shah is not merely sitting in his air-conditioned office playing with data. He is out there in the field, interacting with the party’s rank and file, meeting people from different cross-sections of society. As per figures obtained from the BJP, Shah has travelled 5,59,505 km ever since he took over as party chief, making it an average of 525 km per day! He has visited all states and union territories of the country, some more than once.

Right now, he is in the middle of a 110-day-long, country-wide expansion drive. He is travelling to all states, but the focus is on those that are still unchartered territory for the BJP—Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Orissa, Kerala, West Bengal and the Northeastern states etc. “These are not flying visits where he goes in the morning and returns in the evening. As a rule, he spends three days in a big state, two in a smaller one and a day in a UT,” says an aide. Assam was once on Shah’s list of “to-win” states, one that’s been tick-marked by now.

It’s a culture of activity. Shah ensures all leaders, including cabinet ministers, travel across India and meet booth-level party workers. “Each worker should be able to stand up prou­dly and say he represents the BJP,” Shah told leaders at a meeting. The strategy has definitely worked. Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkh­and, Maharashtra, Haryana, Assam, UP, Utt­arakhand, Goa, Manipur, Arunachal—Shah has a long list of tick-marks. He denies Bihar and Delhi are a sore point, but party sources insist he is already working to a well-thought-out plan to add them to the BJP kitty. “Not only Bihar and Delhi, he’s working towards a saffron India. And the way he’s going about it, each worker believes it’s not just a pipe dream. It’s very much in the realm of possibility,” says a leader. A relentlessly focused, res­ult-oriented approach is his hallmark. “He gets feedback from across India. He processes all information before reaching a decision. And once he does, he’s not likely to change it. He will stand by it in the face of all criticism,” the leader adds.

For sure, Shah is not easily put on the defensive, whether it’s on lynching or his choices, like Yogi Adityanath as chief minister of UP. He is believed to have countered all criticism regarding Yogi—“Why shouldn’t he be made the CM? Just because of the colour of his clothes? Would he have been more acceptable if he wore trousers and shirt? I believe he is best suited to be the CM of a state like UP.” And that ended any deb­ate.

In a sense, Shah is not just investing a BJP with a new sense of purpose, but also reinventing and repositioning it. After having turned Hindutva into a winning force, he does not wish for the BJP to remain circumscribed by it: he wants a party that ans­wers to all the weaker and underprivileged sections of society. BJP vice-president Vinay Sahasrabuddhe says Shah has made significant efforts for social outreach. One more frontal orga­nisation has been added to the party, in the form of the OBC Morcha. “He knows very well that the party has to make deeper inroads into creating strong bases among the Other Backward Classes, to broaden its mandate,” says Sahasrabuddhe.

At every gathering, Shah painstakingly explains that it’s not just about converting the party into an election-winning mach­ine. “Shah always starts with an introduction to the BJP. He tells them about its origin in the Jan Sangh, when 10 people started it to bring about change in the country. He says the BJP stood for change then and it stands for change now. He reminds them that the BJP has a longer history of losing than winning elections. It’s not just Hindutva,” says another office-bearer.

Shah himself is attentive to another symbiotic link. “A strong party can run a good government,” he says. “A weak party, on the other hand, will make a good government weak.” The relationship between the Modi government and Shah’s BJP is one of a seamless, flowing synergy. Observers say they have never seen such “samanvay” between government and party before. Most earlier governments, including the NDA under A.B. Vaj­payee, were freighted with the burden of differences with the party—often working at cross-purposes. Not this dispensation.

The contrast with the Manmohan Singh government’s days could not have been sharper. Often at variance on crucial pol­icy matters, Manmohan’s authority was seriously undermined when Rahul Gandhi publicly tore an ordinance—an image etched in public memory. “You will never witness such dramatic scenes in this government,” says a Shah aide with a smile. “The party is working as a force-multiplier, but never as an infl­uencer. Shah is extremely careful and knows where to draw the line. He acts as the perfect foil to the PM, in the quintessential guru-shishya mode,” he adds. The trust and respect is mut­ual. Modi values his advice and often takes inputs from him for ­rally speeches—Shah’s feedback from the ground allowing him to establish a more personal rapport with the people.

There’s a reverse flow as well, as the party boosts the government’s efforts to reach out to the people. In the run-up to GST becoming a reality, Shah was in regular touch with all BJP chief ministers to ensure smooth ratification and implementation. Party workers had fanned out to establish contact with cadres on the ground to spread awareness about how GST will clear away a lot of cobwebs that hold back the Indian economy.

Like with demonetisation, the pitch is nationalism. “Then, the targets were the black money hoarders. The party’s messaging was so effective that it actually helped the BJP in elections. Similarly, GST is aimed at providing relief to businessmen and entrepreneurs from the inspector raj. And also to make things transparent for the consumers. Party workers are already out getting feedback,” an office-bearer tells Outlook.

Party workers are indeed a prime conduit in taking government schemes—especially the PM’s pet projects like Jan Dhan Yojana, Ujjwala, Suraksha Bima Yojana, Mudra Yojana, Crop Insurance et al—to the people. “The workers spread awareness, take feedback about efficacy and reach, also identify beneficiaries and try and win them over to the BJP,” a party leader says. Policy success is smoothly turned into an election plank.

A BJP veteran, who took some time to accept the ascenda­ncy of Shah, grudgingly admits the party has never worked so systematically, functioning almost with clockwork precision. “There has been an element of ruthlessness, but maybe that’s how the young and the restless work,” he tells Outlook.

When Shah took over in July 2014, he caused quite an uph­eaval within the party. Marking a generational shift, veteran leaders like L.K. Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi were clinically removed from the party’s parliamentary board and relegated to ‘margdarshak’ status. Several new faces were brought in. Focus was on choosing a young team that could deliver—over 60 per cent of his team is below the age of 50. He made sure all sections of society were represented in his team.

There was palpable discontent during that phase of chur­n­ing. Shah was called out for his “autocratic, undemocra­tic” style. The criticism became public after the Bihar def­eat in November 2015 when Advani, Joshi, Shanta Kumar and Yashwant Sinha got a chance to give vent to their resentm­ent. They wrote an open letter alleging “the party is being for­ced to kow-tow to a handful…its consensual character destr­oyed.” Now, that phase of evolution is over. Things have settled for Shah and the BJP. He is not letting himself be distracted: the singular focus is on a saffron India and the return of Modi in 2019.