The Day-After Glow

But in Bihar and Jharkhand, the picture is not all that clear for the Congress, failing as it did in striking a full alliance with the RJD. In Bihar, it only has an understanding with Laloo in 12 of the 80 seats it is contesting, while in Jharkhand, it has tied up with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), leaving the RJD out of the arrangement. The best-case scenario for the Congress is a UPA victory in Bihar in which the RJD falls short of the magical 122-mark and has to seek Congress support. As for Jharkhand, a Congress-JMM government which does not require RJD backing will suit the Congress fine.

Given the rough patch the BJP is going through, it does not want to hype these elections. Says Pramod Mahajan, who along with Arun Jaitley is overseeing the BJP campaign in Bihar: "These polls won't affect future election results. Do elections in Sweden impact those in France?"

Party insiders point out that in Haryana, the BJP has modest goals: improving its tally from six to a double-digit mark. In Jharkhand, the party's coming to power hinges on it winning at least 25 of the 82 seats. If that happens and if the Congress refuses to give the chief ministership to Shibu Soren, the BJP could step forward and back him. That's why the party, facing a high anti-incumbency factor, has decided not to attack Soren.

As for Bihar, its strategy will be to present a "united NDA" against a "fractured UPA", as Jaitley puts it. The JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar tried his utmost to add Ram Vilas Paswan's Loktantrik Janata Party (LJP) to the NDA, but failed. Meanwhile, some senior BJP and JD(U) leaders have deserted their parties for the RJD.

For the three regional parties in the fray, the stakes are higher. If the RJD can win Bihar again, Laloo will be able to play out his national ambitions.For the JMM's Shibu Soren, facing charges in a murder case, victory would be vindication in the "people's court". For Chautala, a return to power would ensure there is no break in the running of the family enterprise.

What then will be the issues in these elections? For the Congress, it will be the record of its eight-month-old government and the "sacrifice" of Sonia Gandhi. But in Bihar it finds itself in a Catch 22 cleft. Pushing its campaign could harm Laloo. Not doing so may enable Laloo to dominate it. Striking the fine balance won't be easy on the ground. For the BJP-JD(U) combine in Bihar and Jharkhand, it will be the RJD's 15-year "misrule". For the RJD itself, it will be a mixture of emotive issues like secularism, Godhra and old slogans like OBC, Dalit and Muslim empowerment.

But in the end, caste and community will play its role. In Haryana, the return of Bansi Lal to the Congress should ensure a division of Jat votes but the key question remains—will the bsp, contesting all 90 seats in the state, damage the Congress by eating into the 18 per cent Dalit vote? In Jharkhand, will the BJP try and polarise the votes along tribal/non-tribal lines in a desperate bid to retain the state? Will the 13 per cent Muslim votes get divided between the RJD, contesting on its own, and the Congress, which is in alliance with the JMM?

As for Bihar, the RJD is banking on its traditional M-Y base (Muslims account for 16.6 per cent and the Yadavs 12.7 per cent) as well as a chunk of the 14 per cent SC votes, while the JD(U)-BJP combine is hoping to get a major chunk of the 13 per cent upper-caste vote along with a substantial chunk of the non-Yadav OBC.

Much is being made of the Muslim vote. While the BJP feels the RJD's Muslim base is intact, Paswan's LJP and the Congress are hoping to exploit Muslim disillusionment with Laloo. Paswan has given a substantial number of tickets to Muslims while drawing attention to the sad state of minority-aided institutions. Says he, "Laloo has been treating the Muslims like bonded labour, scaring them, making hollow promises." As for the Congress, its leaders are sure Sonia will be able to attract the community's votes.

Will attempts by non-RJD parties on both sides of the secular divide to cut into the RJD's vote work? Will the BJP's mix of Jaitley's spin and Mahajan's strategy do the trick? Crossing his fingers, a BJP functionary says ruefully: "Laloo has changed the terms of political discourse in Bihar—the issue is not development there. Its empowerment. That is the challenge."