The call by the pro-talk ULFA leaders to their bosses -- 'chairman' ArabindaRajkhowa, 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah, 'foreign secretary' Sasadhar Choudhury and others-- to enter into unconditional talks with New Delhi is nothing unusual. What is particularly significant, however, is theirstatement that the ULFA's central leaders -- believed by Indian authorities to be operating from Bangladesh-- have preferred to remain silent on the threat posed by illegal migrants from Bangladesh to the very identity of the Assamese people. By raising the issue of illegal influx from Bangladesh, the pro-talk leaders have put the ULFA leadership in the dock, and in doing so, seek to appease local sentiments, including those of influential mainstream groups in Assam, who have been raising the migration issue with determination to rid thestate of illegal aliens.
While these developments are certainly positive, from the point of view of the authorities, there are no grounds for euphoria. The events in Nagaland in recent weeks have shown what factionalism within an insurgency movement can do, derailing gains that may have been made over the years through peace processes. At least 40 Naga rebels have been killed in factional fights since May 2008, and as many as 62 since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, there will certainly be enormous pressure on the ULFA leadership now, and thecentral leaders will have to introspect on the state of the organization and the causes that have led to the'28th battalion's' mutiny. A crucial aspect of the latest turn of events is that direct talks between the rebels and thegovernment have actually occurred without the involvement of intermediaries, and particularly without the participation of the ULFA-backed PCG.
The security establishment believes that the ULFA leadership could soon be isolated if more rebel units were to come forward to join the pro-talk group or the peace process. This argument is not something that the ULFA leadership can simply brush aside. It has been a long time since theULFA's top leaders have hiding out abroad, running the organization by remote control, and many of the top operational commanders, with whom the top leaders were personally familiar and who were appointed to key posts by them, have fallen into the security dragnet. Their positions have been filled up by newer cadres, many of whom have not had the opportunity to work closely with their top brass.
It would be naïve to expect the ULFA to follow the example of the pro-talk group in the'28th battalion', but the outfit will certainly be forced to formulate a strategy to repair the damage. One option would be to launch a series of strikes, particularly on soft targets (a bomb blast on June 29, 2008 at a crowded market at Kumarikata, in the western Baksadistrict, on the Bhutan border, killed five people and injured more than 50 others while another explosion in theCentral Assam district of Nagaon on June 27, 2008 injured six people), or get busy rebuilding the two breakaway companies of the'28th battalion' to fill up the void created by the desertion of the pro-talk group. If that happens, Assam could well witness fratricidal feuds between ULFA factions. In fact, pro-talk leaders of the group like Hazarika have admitted that they are, indeed, apprehensive of such an outcome, andstated that they were "taking precautions". Local media reports suggest that some cadres of the Alpha and Charlie companies of the'28th battalion' have joined the Bravo company as they did not want to be a party to the truce.
The government, combating the ULFA in a systematic manner since the first military offensive (Operation Bajrang) was launched in November 1990, will certainly receive a temporary reprieve following the latest truce. The challenge, now, is to consolidate these gains and establish an effective process to secure peace in thestate. This is going to be an uphill task as ULFA military chief Paresh Baruah has said on June 29, 2008 that any dialogue with thegovernment must include the group's key issue, that of 'sovereignty' of Assam. Talks with two companies of the rebel group will certainly create tremendous pressure on the ULFA high command, but cannot end the insurrection in Assam. Over the coming weeks, it will be interesting to discover how the pro-talks group will respond to the Assamgovernment's stated position that rebel cadres coming forward to join the peace process must lay down arms and stay at designated camps, till a final resolution is reached through negotiations. There is little reason to believe that the road to peace in Assam will not remain thorny.